TRADE OPENNESS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TURKEY

Öz

The causal effects of trade openness, foreign direct investment and economic growth is verified empirically using the Turkey time series data for the period 1974 to 2015. Numerous tests
have been conducted to find out this effect for instance the ADF and Philips Perrons tests, designating that all the variables are non-stationary in level but after the first difference they became stationary. The Johansen tests of co-integration put indicates the presence of a long-run association amongst the variables with all the long-run coefficients significant at 5% level. The Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional causality from economic growth, exports, and inflation to trade openness, inflation, foreign direct investment and imports to per capita income. Similarly, the result also indicates the existence of bidirectional causality running between exports and per capita income, trade openness and per capita income and finally imports and per capita income. The results of variance decomposition display that export is the main variable causing trade liberalization in Turkey, denoting that exports oriented strategy should be stimulated. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade openness
• growth
• inflation
• foreign direct investment
• exports
• imports
• per capita GDP

TİCARİ AÇIKLIK, DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, ENFLASYON, İHRACAT, İTHALAT VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 1974-2015 dönemi için ticaret liberalizasyonu, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, enflasyon, ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik yönünü
ampirik olarak araştırmaktır. Birim kök testleri, tüm değişkenlerin ilk farkının durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Eştümleşme testi değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Nedensellik testleri, tek yönlü nedenselliği göstermektedir. Varyans ayrıştırmasının sonuçları, ihracatın, ticaretin serbestleşmesine neden olan ana değişken olduğunu göstermektedir; bu durum, ihracata yönelik politikaların teşvik edilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar kısmen, Türkiye’ deki ticaret liberalizasyonunun, 1989’ dan beri sermaye hesabı liberalizasyonu yaşayan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar yoluyla kişi başına büyümeye ve ihracata bağlı olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticari açıklık
• Büyüme
• İhracat
• Kişibaşı GDP
• Yabancı doğrudan yatırımlar

Kaynakça

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