Causal Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account in the Developing Countries

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 5 - 22, 01.12.2013

Öğr.gör. Sevgi Değer Doç.dr. Sema Ay

Öz

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has direct and indirect effects on the current account balance (CAB). While some of these effects are positive, some of it is caused by the current account deficits in the balance. Thus, the net effect on the current account of foreign direct investments is uncertain. Studies examining the effects on the current account balance of foreign direct investments coincide especially the post-1990 period with the speed of globalization. This study examines causal relationships between FDI and current account in the developing countries. In the tests taking into 30 Developing Countries with mid-upper income for the period 1990-2011 caught a two-way causal relationship. These results indicate that FDI inflows in the developing countries lead to deficits these countries' current account. Such a result means increase the transfer of profits and the current account deficits stimulating the country's imports directly and indirectly.

Anahtar Kelimeler

: Foreign Direct Investment, Current Accounts, Developing Countries, Causality

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Cari İşlemler Arasındaki Nedensel İlişkiler (1990–2011)

Öz

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY)’ların cari işlemler bilançosu (CİB) üzerinde dolaylı ve dolaysız olmak üzere etkileri söz konusudur. Bu etkilerin bir kısmı olumlu iken, bir kısmı ise cari işlemler bilançosunda açıklara neden olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla DYY’ların cari işlemler üzerine net etkisi belirsizdir. DYY’larının cari işlemler bilançosu üzerindeki etkilerini ele alan çalışmalar, özellikle küreselleşmenin hız kazandığı 1990 sonrası döneme rastlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada Gelişmekte Olan Ülke (GOÜ)’lerde DYY ile cari işlemler bilançosundaki gelişmeler arasındaki nedensel ilişkiler inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. 1990-2011 dönemi için 30 orta üst gelirli GOÜ’yi dikkate alarak yapılan testlerde DYY’lar ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi yakalanmıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre GOÜ’lerde DYY girişleri, bu ülkelerin cari işlemler bilançosunda açıklara neden olmaktadır. Böyle bir sonuç, GOÜ’lerdeki DYY’ların ülkenin ithalatını doğrudan ve dolaylı bir şekilde uyararak ve kar transferleri ile cari işlemler açıklarını artırdığı anlamına gelmektedir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Cari İşlemler, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler, Nedensellik

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