السُّنَّة في الانتخابات اللبنانية: التطلعات والهواجس

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3, 9 - 22, 01.07.2022

Tuba Yıldız

Öz

تتركز هذه الدراسة على انعكاسات الانتخابات العامة التي عُقِدت في لبنان في الخامس عشر من مايو 2022 وتأثيراتها الإقليمية. أدى إعلان الزعيم السُّنّي سعد الحريري تعليقه العمل السياسي قبل الانتخابات بفترة وجيزة إلى أزمة زعامة بين السنة، وتعالت ردود الفعل إلى حد مقاطعة الانتخابات. إلى جانب ذلك، فتحت الانتخابات الباب أمام ولادة عدد من الفروقات بالنسبة للطبقة السياسية والمجتمع السُّني. ستتناول هذه الدراسة هذه الفروقات التي انعكست على بنية البرلمان اللبناني والتطورات المحتمل حدوثها بالنسبة للسنة بعد غياب سعد الحريري عن السياسة اللبنانية، وفي الوقت نفسه ستتطرق الدراسة إلى المقاربة التركية تجاه الانتخابات اللبنانية.

Anahtar Kelimeler

لبنان, الانتخابات, السُّنَّة, تركيا

General Elections in Lebanon and Sunnis: Expectations and Concerns

Öz

This study focuses on the reflections of the general elections that were held on in Lebanon May 15, 2022, on Sunni community and its regional effects. Shortly before the elections, Sunni leader Saad Al-Hariri's suspension of his political carrier caused a leadership crisis among Sunnis and there was an increase in the reactions which rised up to boycotting elections. However, the elections led to the emergence of some differences in the Sunni political stratum and society. This study discusses these differences that reflected in the parliament and possible developments in Lebanese politics after the absence of Saad Al-Hariri. Moreover, the study analyses Türkiye's approach toward the Lebanese elections.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Lebanon, election, Sunnis, Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Tuba Yıldız, “Lübnan Seçimleri Ertelenmeli mi? Kaygılar ve Beklentiler”, https://ordaf.org/lubnan-secimleri-ertelenmeli-mi-kaygilar-ve-beklentiler/
• Ward Vloeberghs, “The Hariri Political Dynasty after the Arab Spring”, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 17, No. 2, p. 241-248, July 2012, s. 242.
• Kazananların detaylı listesi için Bkz: European Unıon Electıon Observatıon Mıssıon Parlıamentary Electıons Lebanon 2005, 61-65. http://www.eods.eu/library/FR%20LEBANON%202005_en.pdf
• Yasin Atlıoğlu, “Lübnan’da Seçimler ve Siyasal Bölünmüşlük”, TASAM, https://tasam.org/tr-TR/Icerik/261/lubnanda_secimler_ve_siyasal_bolunmusluk
• “Lebanon's Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri's Future Current”, Middle East Report N°96, 26 May 2010, s. 1.
• Richard Chambers, “Lebanon’s 7 June Elections: The Results”, IFES, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
• “Lebanon's unity government collapses”, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jan/12/hezbollah-quits-lebanon-unity-government
• Joel D. Parker, “Saʿad al-Hariri and the Tehran-Beirut Axis: The Case of ʿArsal,” Tel Aviv Notes, v. 11, n. 14, 13 Ağustos 2017, s. 2
• Are John Knudsen, “Patrolling a Proxy War: Citizens, Soldiers and Zuʻama in Syria Street, Tripoli, Civil-Military Relations in Lebanon: Conflict, Cohesion and Confessionalism in a Divided Society, Ed. Are John Knudsen, Tine Gade, Norwegian Institute of International Aff Oslo, Norway, 2017, s.80
• https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2016/06/19/Is-Hariri-s-grasp-on-Lebanon-s-Sunni-community-faltering-
• Christine Strassmaier, Peter Nassif, “Lebanese Municipality Elections 2016: Local decisions with national and regional ramifications”, s.3
• 2016 yılında Suudi Arabistan, Hizbullah’ın terör örgütü ilan edilmesinde çekimser kaldığı gerekçesiyle Lübnan’a yapacağı 4 milyar dolarlık askeri yardımı askıya almıştı.
• Joel D. Parker, a.e., s. 2,
• Saad Hariri, can güvenliği olmadığı gerekçesiyle, Suudi Arabistan’a giderek, Başkent Riyad’dan istifa ettiğini açıkladı.
• “Alloush Says to Run in Elections to 'Fill Sunni Void'”, https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/288332
• “Ex-Lebanese PM questioned over how $11 billion was spent”, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-protests-siniora-idUSKBN1XH2HA
• Raphael Lefevre, “Man of the Moment?”, https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/74703
• “Lübnan Ülke Bülteni Mart 2014”, https://www.corlutso.org.tr/uploads/docs/lubnan_ulke_raporu.pdf
• “Erdoğan, Lübnan'da hükümeti kurmakla görevlendirilen Saad Hariri'yi kabul etti”, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/erdogan-lubnanda-hukumeti-kurmakla-gorevlendirilen-saad-haririyi-kabul-etti/2103477
• https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/lebanon
• TİKA’nın Lübnan’daki faaliyetleri için Bkz: https://www.tika.gov.tr/tr/ara?s=l%C3%BCbnan