RUSYA VE KAZAKİSTAN ARASINDAKİ MÜTTEFİKLİK İLİŞKİSİNİN SINIRLARI

Öz

Rusya ve Kazakistan, aralarında güçlü ilişkiler ve bağlar olan iki müttefik devlettir. İki devletin ilişkilerinin simbiyotik özellik taşıdığı bile iddia edilmekte ve özellikle Rusya, Kazakistan’la ilişkilerinin sınırsız iş birliğine dayandığını düşünmekteydi. Bu düşüncenin iki devletin birbirlerini birçok konuda koşulsuz destekleyeceği beklentisine yol açtığı söylenebilir. Ancak 2022’de başlayan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, Rusya ile Kazakistan arasındaki ilişkilerin değişiminde kritik bir rol oynamıştır. Savaşla birlikte Kazakistan da dahil olmak üzere Orta Asya devletleri üzerindeki Rus nüfuzu azalmaya başlamış ve bölge devletleri ile Rusya’nın politikaları arasında farklılık ortaya çıkmıştır. Rusya, Ukrayna Savaşı sırasında Kazakistan’dan destek göreceğini düşünürken bu beklentisi gerçekleşmemiştir. Kazakistan, Rusya’nın Ukrayna müdahalesini desteklememiş ve Rusya’ya uluslararası yaptırımları aşması konusunda yardım etmeyeceğini açıklamıştır. Bu karardan rahatsız olan Rusya, enerji konusundaki uygulamaları ve toprak bütünlüğü söylemleri ile Kazakistan üzerinde baskı kurmaya çalışmıştır. Bu durum ilişkilerin gerginleşmesine neden olmuştur. Buna karşı Kazakistan, Rusya’yı dengeleyebileceği alternatif ülkelere yönelmiş ve yeni rotaları geliştirmeye çalışmıştır. Kazakistan ile Rusya arasında yaşanan gerginlik, iki devletin çıkarlarının her zaman uyuşmadığını, tarafların çıkar çatışmasına girebildiğini ve müttefiklik ilişkilerinin bir sınırının olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada Şubat 2022’de başlayan Ukrayna Savaşı’yla farklı bir evreye giren Kazakistan-Rusya ilişkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada iki devlet arasındaki ilişkilerin nasıl bir süreç izlediği analiz edilmektedir. Zira savaş öncesi müttefik ilişkilerine sahip olan devletler, savaşın başlamasının ardından ise ilişkilerini gözden geçirmiştir. Bu süreçte Rusya, Kazakistan’ı kendi çıkarlarına aykırı hareket eden aktör olarak görürken, Kazakistan ise Rusya’yı bir tehdit olarak konumlandırmıştır. İki devlet arasındaki ilişkiler, bir süre sonra normalleşse de taraf arasındaki güvenin kırıldığı ve sınırsız iş birliğinin aslında sınırlı olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, 2022 sonrası süreçte yaşanan gelişmelere paralel olarak Kazakistan ile Rusya arasındaki müttefiklik ilişkisinin sınırlarının ne olduğunun belirlenmesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rusya
• Kazakistan
• müttefik
• petrol
• yaptırım

LIMITS OF THE ALLIED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN

Öz

Russia and Kazakhstan are two allied states with strong relations and ties. It is even claimed that the relations between the two states are symbiotic and Russia, in particular, believed that its relations with Kazakhstan were based on unlimited co-operation. It can be said that this idea led to the expectation that the two states would unconditionally support each other in many issues. However, the Russian-Ukrainian War that started in 2022 played a critical role in the change of relations between Russia and Kazakhstan. With the war, Russian influence over the Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan, began to decline, and differences emerged between the policies of the regional states and Russia. While Russia expected to receive support from Kazakhstan during the war in Ukraine, this expectation did not come ture. Kazakhstan did not support Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and announced that it would not help Russia overcome international sanctions. Russia, which was disturbed by this decision, tried to put pressure on Kazakhstan with its energy practices and territorial integrity statements. This situation caused the relations to become tense. Against this, Kazakhstan turned towards alternative countries where it could balance Russia and tried to develop new routes. The tension between Kazakhstan and Russia has shown that the interests of the two states do not always coincide, that the parties can enter into conflict of interest and that there is a limit to alliance relations. In this context, the study focuses on Kazakhstan-Russia relations, which entered a different phase with the Ukraine War that started in February 2022. The study analyses the process of relations between the two states. Because the states that had allied relations before the war reviewed their relations after the war began. In this process, while Russia saw Kazakhstan as an actor acting against its interests, Kazakhstan positioned Russia as a threat. Although the relations between the two states normalised after a while, it is understood that the trust between the parties was broken and the unlimited cooperation was actually limited. The aim of the study is to determine the limits of the alliance relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia in parallel with the developments in the post-2022 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Russia
• Kazakhstan
• ally
• oil
• sanction

ПРЕДЕЛЫ СОЮЗНИЧЕСКИХ ОТНОШЕНИЙ МЕЖДУ РОССИЕЙ И КАЗАХСТАНОМ

Öz

Казахстан и Россия — два союзных государства с прочными отношениями и связями. Считается, что отношения между двумя государствами являются симбиотическими, и Россия, в частности, считала, что ее отношения с Казахстаном основаны на неограниченном сотрудничестве. Можно сказать, что эта идея привела к ожиданию того, что два государства будут безоговорочно поддерживать друг друга во многих вопросах. Однако решающую роль в изменении отношений между Россией и Казахстаном сыграла российско-украинская война, начавшаяся в 2022 году. С началом войны влияние России на государства Центральной Азии, включая Казахстан, стало снижаться, и возникли разногласия между политикой региональных государств и России. Хотя Россия рассчитывала получить поддержку от Казахстана во время войны на Украине, эти ожидания не оправдались. Казахстан не поддержал вмешательство России в дела Украины и заявил, что не будет помогать России преодолевать международные санкции. Россия, обеспокоенная этим решением, попыталась оказать давление на Казахстан, используя свои энергетические рычаги влияния и риторику о территориальной целостности. В результате отношения стали напряженными. В противовес этому Казахстан обратился к альтернативным странам, где он мог бы уравновесить Россию, и попытался разработать новые маршруты энергоносителей. Напряженность в отношениях Казахстана и России показала, что интересы двух государств не всегда совпадают, что стороны могут вступать в конфликт интересов и что существует предел союзническим отношениям. В этом контексте исследование фокусируется на отношениях Казахстана и России, которые вступили в новую фазу с началом украинской войны в феврале 2022 года. В исследовании анализируется процесс развития отношений между двумя государствами. Потому что государства, имевшие союзнические отношения до войны, пересмотрели свои отношения после начала войны. В этом процессе, в то время как Россия рассматривала Казахстан как актора, действующего против ее интересов, Казахстан позиционировал Россию как угрозу. Хотя через некоторое время отношения между двумя государствами нормализовались, очевидно, что доверие между сторонами было нарушено, а неограниченное сотрудничество фактически ограничено. Целью исследования является определение границ союзнических отношений между Казахстаном и Россией параллельно с развитием событий в период после 2022 года.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Россия
• Казахстан
• союзники
• нефть
• санкции

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