Мнения российских экономистов на западные санкции против России

Öz

В марте 2014 года, в ответ на аннексию Крыма и военные действия на востоке Украины, Совет Европы принял решение ввести санкции против России. ЕС раскритиковал действия России, подрывающие суверенитет и независимость Украины. В ответ на санкции ЕС, в августе 2014 года Россия ввела продовольственное эмбарго на сельскохозяйственную продукцию из западных стран. Наиболее часто обсуждаемая тема этих санкций - их эффективность и влияние на российскую экономику. Иными словами, эксперты стремятся выявить доказательства того, что западные санкции действительно эффективны против России и оценить их влияние на российскую экономику. В статье собраны мнения российских экономистов и политологов на западные санкции против России. Цель статьи - представить мнения, анализы и прогнозы ведущих российских экспертов, проживающих в России и за рубежом, и занимающих должности в правительстве РФ и/или в академической сфере. Были изучены мнения ряда экспертов относительно ситуации, сложившейся сразу после введения санкций, и относительно перспектив будущего развития России под влиянием санкций. В этой статье рассматривается влияние западных санкций на различные секторы экономики и обсуждается их общее влияние на российскую экономику. В частности, в статье рассматриваются мнения российских экономистов и политологов о финансовых санкциях и их влиянии на российский банковский сектор; влияние на прямые иностранные инвестиции; влияние на экономическую и политическую стабильность; и эффект от введения российского сельскохозяйственного эмбарго на импорт. Один из разделов посвящен взглядам экономистов на эффективность санкций как политического инструмента. Последний раздел суммирует основные политические и экономические последствия санкций для России с 2014 года.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Российская внешная политика
• санкции
• российские экономисты
• аннексия Крыма
• санкции ЕС
• Россия

The views of Russian economists on Western sanctions against Russia

Öz

In March 2014, in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military actions in Eastern Ukraine, the European Council decided to implement sanctions against Russia. The EU criticized Russia’s actions against Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. In response to the EU’s sanctions, in August 2014 Russia introduced a food embargo on agricultural products from Western countries. The most frequently discussed topic regarding these sanctions is their effectiveness and their impact on the Russian economy. In other words, the experts aimed to identify evidence that Western sanctions do work against Russia and to estimate their effect on the Russian economy. This article discusses the views of Russian economists and political analysts on Western sanctions against Russia. The goal of the article is to present the opinions, analyses, and forecasts of leading Russian experts living in Russia and abroad and who are working for the government and/or in the academic field. The views of several experts were investigated regarding the situation resulting immediately after the imposing of sanctions and regarding perspectives of future development in Russia under the influence of sanctions. This article addresses the impact of some of these Western sanctions on different economic sectors and discusses the overall effect of sanctions on the Russian economy. In particular, the article covers the opinions of Russian economists and political experts concerning financial sanctions and its impact on the Russian banking sector; impact on direct foreign investments; impact on economic and political stability; and the effect from the introduction of Russian agricultural embargo on Western import. One section is focused on the views of economists on effectiveness of sanctions as political tool, and the last section summarizes the main political and economic effects of sanctions on Russia since 2014.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Russian foreign policy
• sanctions
• Russian economists
• annexation of Crimea
• EU’s sanctions
• Russia

Rusya'ya Karşı Uygulanan Batı Yaptırımları Hakkında Rus Ekonomistlerin Görüşleri

Öz

Avrupa Konseyi 2014 yılı Mart ayında, Rusya'nın Kırım'ı ilhakına ve Doğu Ukrayna'daki askeri faaliyetlerine cevap olarak, Rusya'ya karşı yaptırım uygulama kararı aldı. AB, Rusya'nın Ukrayna'nın toprak bütünlüğü ve bağımsızlığına yönelik giriştiği eylemleri eleştirdi. Rusya ise AB'nin yaptırımlarına yanıt olarak, 2014 yılı Ağustos ayında, Batı ülkelerinden gelen tarım ürünlerine karşı gıda ambargosu getirdi. Bu noktada en çok tartışılan husus, bahsi geçen yaptırımların işlevselliği ve Rus ekonomisine etkisi üzerinedir. Başka bir deyişle, konunun uzmanları Batı yaptırımlarının Rusya'ya karşı işe yaradığına dair bulguları ortaya koymayı ve bunların Rus ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisini öngörmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu makale, Rus ekonomistlerin ve siyasi analistlerin Rusya'ya karşı uygulanan Batı yaptırımları konusundaki görüşlerini tartışmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Rusya'da ve yurtdışında yaşayıp, devlet için ve/veya akademide çalışmakta olan önemli Rus uzmanların görüş, analiz ve öngörülerini ortaya koymaktır. Yaptırımların uygulanmasından hemen sonra ortaya çıkan durum ve bu kıskaçtaki Rusya'nın ilerleyen süreçteki gelişim perspektifi hakkındaki çeşitli uzmanların görüşleri ele alındı. Bu makale, söz konusu bazı Batı yaptırımlarının çeşitli ekonomik sektörler üzerindeki etkisini ele almakta ve yaptırımların Rus ekonomisi üzerindeki genel etkisini tartışmaktadır. Bilhassa bu çalışma, Rus ekonomistler ve siyaset bilimcilerin mali yaptırımlar ve bunun Rus bankacılık sektörü üzerindeki etkisine; doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisine; ekonomi ve siyasi istikrar üzerindeki etkisine; ve yürürlüğe giren Rus tarım ambargosunun Batı ithalatı üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin görüşlerini içermektedir. Bir bölüm, ekonomistlerin siyasi araç olarak yaptırımların işlevselliğine ilişkin görüşleri üzerinde durmakta ve son bölüm ise 2014 yılından bu yana yaptırımların Rusya üzerindeki temel siyasi ve ekonomik etkilerini özetlemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rus dış politikası
• Sanctions
• Russian economists
• Annexation of Crimea
• EU’s sanctions
• Russia

Kaynakça

1. Aleksashenko, Sergey. “Evaluating Western Sanctions on Russia,” 2016, Accessed date: 05.02.2021. URL: https://issuu.com/atlanticcouncil/docs/evaluating_western_sanctions_on_rus.
2. Analytical center for the goverment of the Russian Federation. “Prodovolstvennoe Embargo: Importozameshenie i Izmenenie Struktury Vneshney Torgovli,” 2015, Accessed date: 28.01.2021. URL: http://ac.gov.ru/publications/.
3. Arefev, P.V. et al. Economic Sanctions against Russia: Expectation and Reality, 2017, Accessed date: 28.02.2021. URL: http://rustem-nureev.ru/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/13640_NUREEV_Economicheskie_sankcii_protiv_Rossii_Автору-1.pdf.
4. Bank of Russia. “Balance of Payments,” Accessed date: 15.01.2021. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/.
5. Bank of Russia. “Russian Debt,” 2020, Accessed date: 11.03.2021. URL: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/.
6. Bornstein, Morris. “Economic Sanctions and Rewards in Support of Arms Control Agreements,” American Economic Association 58/2 (1968): 417–27, Accessed date: 11.02.2021. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1831826.
7. Central bank of Russia. “Data on the Bank of Russia FX Operations,” Accessed date: 30.01.2021. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/archive/db/valint_day/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.From=01.01.2014&UniDbQuery.To=31.01.2017
8. Central bank of Russia. “Osnovnie Napravleniya Edinoy Gosudarstvennoy Denezhno-Kreditnoy Politiki Na 2015 God, i Period 2016 i 2017 Godov,” 106/158, 2014, Accessed date: 30.01.2021, URL: http://www.cbr.ru/publ/Vestnik/ves141201106.pdf.

9. Council of the European Union. “EU Restrictive Measures in Response to the Crisis in Ukraine,” European Union Newsroom, Accessed date: 25.03.2021. URL: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/ukraine-crisis/.
10. Ellyatt, Holly. “US Sanctions on Russia Have Helped Russia’s Economy, Putin Says,” Accessed date: 17.03.2021. URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-sanctions-on-russia-have-helped-russias-economy-putin-says.html.
11. Enikolopov, R. “‘Iskanderi’ Priunili. Stali Li Sankcii Prichinoi Ekonomicheskoi Stagnacii v Rossii,” Accessed date: 02.03.2021. URL: https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/384055-iskandery-priunyli-stali-li-sankcii-prichinoy-ekonomicheskoy-stagnacii-v-rossii.
12. European Commission. “Commission Guidance Note on the Implementation of Certain Provisions of Regulation,” Commission Notice Brussel, Accessed date: 17.02.2021. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/201217-human-rights-guidance-note_en.pdf
13. European External Action Service (EEAS). “EU Sanctions Map,” 2020, Accessed date: 26.02.2021. URL: https://www.sanctionsmap.eu/#/main/details/26/?search=%7B%22value%22:%22%22,%22searchType%22:%7B%7D%7D.
14. Federal state statistic server. “Consumer Price Indices,” Accessed date: 17.01.2021., URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/price
15. Federal state statistic server. “GDP Statistics,” Accessed date: 20.02.2021. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/accounts.https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/tab3(1).htm.
16. Global conflict tracker. “Conflict in Ukraine,” Accessed date: 15.02.2021. URL: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.
17. Guriev, Sergei. “The Impact of Sanctions on Russian Policy,” 2015, Accessed date: 22.02.2021. URL: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-impact-of-sanctions-on-russian-policy/.
18. Gurvich, E. and I. Prilepskiy. “The Impact of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy,” Voprosi Ekonomiki 1 (2016): 5–35, Accessed date: 01.02.2021. URL: https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/issue/view/19.
19. Gary Clyde Hufbauer et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3d Ed., Peterso Institute for International Economics, 2007.
20. “Kudrin Skazal, Chto u Rossii Ne Virabotalsya Immunitet k Sankciyam,” Interfax.Ru, 2019, Accessed date: 22.03.2021. URL: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/651196.
21. “Lavrov: Sanctions against Russia Do Not Work and Will Never Work.” Tass.Ru, 2019, Accessed date: 23.02.2021. URL: https://tass.ru/politika/6954626.
22. Mau, V. and A. Ulyukaev, “Global crisis and challenges for Russian economic development”, Russian Journal of Econonomics, 2015, Accessed date: 12.01.2021. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405473915000045.
23. Nabiullina, E. “Interview with the Chairman of the Bank of Russia E. Nabiullina to CNBC TV Channel,” Central Bank of Russia, 2015, Accessed date: 15.01.2021. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/press/event/?id=5106.
24. “On Measures for Implementation of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation Dated 22nd Oct, 2018 ‘On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measures in Response of Ukraine Actions against Russian Citizens and Companies.” Accessed date: 24.03.2021. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201810220017?index=1&rangeSize=1.
25. Orlova, N. “Financial Sanctions. Consequences for Russia’s Economy and Economic Policy,” Problems of Economic Transition 58 (2016): 203-17, Accessed date: 05.02.2021. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10611991.2016.1200389.
26. Pape, Robert A. “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work.” International Security 22/2, (1997) Accessed date: 18.02.2021. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539368.
27. Polterovich, Viktor. “Kuda Idti: Dvadcat Chetire Tezisa.” 2014, Accessed date: 01.03.2021. URL: https://istina.msu.ru/profile/polterovich.v/.
28. Putin, Vladimir. “Decree of the Prsedint of the Russian Federation. On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measuresto Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation.” Accessed date: 21.03.2021. URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46404.
29. Risk Advisory. “Russia Sanctions List,” www.riskadvisory.com, 2019, Accessed date: 24.01.2021. URL: https://www.riskadvisory.com/sanctions/russia-sanctions-list/.
30. Russell, Martin. “Sanctions over Ukraine. Impact on Russia.” European Parliamentary Research Service, 2016, Accessed date: 07.02.2021. URL: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/EPRS/EPRS-Briefing-579084-Sanctions-over-Ukraine-impact-Russia-FINAL.pdf.
31. Russian Federal State Statistic Service. “Gross Domestic Product, Annual Data.” Accessed date: 25.02.2021. URL: https://gks.ru/accounts.
32. Russian Government. “On Measures for Implementation of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation Dated August 6, 2014 No 560 ‘On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation’”, Accessed date: 21.03.2021. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/safety/docs/ia_eu-russia_ru-eu-import-ban_20140806_unoff-trans-en.pdf.
33. Shevtsova, Lilia. “Putin Has Fought His Way Into a Corner.” The Financial Times, 2014, Accessed date: 22.02.2021. URL: https://carnegie.ru/2014/09/29/putin-has-fought-his-way-into-corner-pub-56799.
34. Sonin, Konstantin and Mariya Mayers. “Interview for the Radio Echo of Moscow.” The Echo of Moscow, 2019, Accessed date: 11.02.2021. URL: https://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/2479197-echo/.
35. The Moscow Time. “An Overview of Russian Opposition Figures Sentenced Over Mass Election Rally.” The Moscow Time, 2019, Accessed date: 26.01.2021. URL: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/07/30/an-overview-of-russian-opposition-figures-sentenced-over-mass-election-rally-a66626.
36. Volchkova, N. and P. Kuznetsova. “How Much Do Counter-Sanctions Cost: Well-Being Analysis,” Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association 43/3 (2019): 173–83, Accessed date: 03.02.2021. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2019i43p173-183.html.