TÜRKİYE VE SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİNDE ENERJİ FİYATLARININ ENFLASYONİST ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 2021 Sayı: 1, 24 - 48, 15.11.2021

Melis Çil Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye, Almanya, Birleşik Krallık, Fransa ve İtalya ekonomilerinde enerji fiyatları ile enflasyon arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi 1999:1-2019:12 dönemine ait aylık veriler ile Sınır Testi yaklaşımı kullanarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik bulgular, tüm ülkeler için döviz kuru, petrol fiyatları ve/veya enerji fiyatlarından tüketici fiyatları ile ölçülen yurtiçi fiyatlara istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir kısmi geçiş etkisinin bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Döviz kuru geçiş etkisinin Almanya ve Türkiye’de görece yüksek olduğu ve petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişmelerin yalnızca bu iki ülkede ulusal enerji fiyatlarını anlamlı bir şekilde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşın Türkiye dışında analizde yer verilen tüm ülkeler için yurtiçi enerji fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimlerin yurtiçi fiyat düzeyini pozitif yönlü etkilediği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geçiş Etkisi, Döviz Kuru, Petrol, Enerji, ARDL

INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF ENERGY PRICES IN TURKEY AND SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Öz

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between energy prices and inflation in Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy from 1999:1 to 2019:12 using the Bounds Testing methodology. The study's empirical findings show that there are statistically significant incomplete pass-through effects from the exchange rate and/or energy price into domestic prices represented by consumer price indices in all countries. The exchange rate pass-through effect is relatively stronger in Germany and Turkey, and changes in international oil prices only have a positive impact on domestic energy prices in those countries. It is also concluded that changes in domestic energy prices have a positive impact on the domestic price level in all the countries under consideration, with the exception of Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pass-through Effect, Exchange Rate, Oil, Energy, ARDL

Kaynakça

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