İdeal Emeklilik Yaşının Belirlenmesi ve Yaşlanmadaki Gelişmeler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2013, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 0 - 0, 01.03.2013

Sos. Güv. Uzm. İlker Şirin Asst. Prof. Fanny Janssen

Öz

Nüfusun yaşlanması, sosyal güvenlik planlarının sürdürülebilirliği açısından önemli etkiye sahiptir. Tartışma, demografik eğilimlerin ideal emeklilik yaşının belirlenmesine yansıtılıp yansıtılmaması veya nasıl yansıtılacağı üzerinedir. Çalışmada, nüfus yapısı ve ölümlülükte meydana gelen gelişmeler temel alınarak, nüfusun yaşlanması ölçülerinden geleneksel ve ileriye dönük olanlar kullanılarak ve farklı karar kriterleri karşılaştırılarak emeklilik yaşı belirlenmektedir. Sabit beklenen ömrü ve nesiller arası adaleti temel alan kritere göre emeklilik yaşı, sabit destek oranına nazaran daha yüksektir, zaman içinde dalgalanma gösterir ve kadınlarda erkeklere göre daha yüksektir. Önerilen yaşlar, 2010 yılı için daha az farklı olmakla birlikte genelde resmi emeklilik yaşından oldukça farklıdır. Yaşlanmayı farklı ölçme yöntemleri, yaşlılık tanımları ve farklı karar kriterleri her bir paydaşın rağbet edeceği değişen ideal emeklilik yaşını beraberinde getirmektedir. Yaştaki cinsiyetler arası farklar ile hali hazırdaki nüfus ve ölümlülük eğilimleri ise daha esnek olarak değerlendirilmelidir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nüfusun yaşlanması, emeklilik yaşı, ileriye dönük yaş, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı, yaşlılık tanımı, Türkiye

İdeal Emeklilik Yaşının Belirlenmesi ve Yaşlanmadaki Gelişmeler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Öz

Population ageing has important implications for the sustainability of social security schemes. Debate is on whether and how to include demographic trends in the determination of the ideal pension age. We determine the ideal pension age for Turkey, based on the developments taking place in both population structure and mortality, by examining conventional and prospective measures of population ageing, and by comparing different decision criteria. Proposed pension ages based on constant remaining life expectancy and intergenerational fairness are higher than those using constant support ratios, show fluctuations over time and are higher for the female than male population. The suggested pension ages differed strongly from the official ones, although less in 2010. The different measures, old-age definitions, and decision criteria result in different alternatives for the ideal pension age with differing popularity for different stakeholders. The observed sex differences and the on-going population and mortality trends demand flexibility

Anahtar Kelimeler

Population ageing, pension age, prospective age, old age dependency ratio, old age definition, Turkey

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