INCREMENTALISM IN TURKISH PUBLIC BUDGETING PROCESS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FOR 1985 – 2015 PERIOD

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 69 - 91, 29.06.2018

Tayfun Moğol , Süleyman Kasal

Öz

When preparing public
budgets, decision-makers consider many factors and prepare their budgets
according to these factors. However, existing of many
factors to be considered in the budget process pose difficulties to decision
makers. For this reason, decision-makers concentrate on increases or decreases
of appropriations instead of considering the whole factors. Because those
considerations are difficult, time consuming and costly. Essentially the important
point for decision-makers is that not losing or decreasing previous year’s
appropriations. Under such conditions, decision makers prefer to choose incrementalism.
In this study, it is analyzed by Swamy (1970) random coefficients regression
method whether or not incremental budgeting is existed in 16 general and 31
special budget administrations during 1985-2015 periods. As a result, it is
found that the administrations in this period have prepared appropriations based
on previous period appropriations. Therefore, it is reached the result that
there is incrementalism in budget process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Incrementalism, budgeting, government budget, decision-making

TÜRK KAMU BÜTÇELEME SÜRECİNDE ARTTIRIMCILIK: 1985-2015 YILLARI ARASI EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Kamu bütçeleri hazırlanırken karar alıcılar
birçok faktörü göz önünde bulundurmakta ve bu faktörlere göre bütçelerini
hazırlamaktadır. Ancak bütçelerin hazırlık sürecinde dikkate alınması gereken
birçok faktörün yer alması karar alıcıları zorlamaktadır. Bu nedenle karar
alıcılar tüm faktörleri değerlendirip bütçe tahminlerini belirlemekten çok,
temel olarak bütçelerinde artış veya azalışlara odaklanmaktadırlar. Çünkü bu
değerlendirmeler zor, zaman alıcı ve maliyetlidir. Karar alıcılar için aslında
önemli olan şey en azından bir önceki dönem bütçe büyüklüklerini
kaybetmemektir. Bu şartlar altında karar alıcıların tercihleri arttırımcılık
yönünde olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türk bütçe sisteminde 1985-2015 döneminde yer
alan 16 genel bütçeli ve 31 özel bütçeli kuruluş ödenek tekliflerinde arttırımcı
davranışlarının var olup olmadığı Swamy (1970) rassal katsayılar regresyon
yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçta bu dönem içerisinde yer alan kuruluşların
bütçe tekliflerinin, bir önceki dönem ödenek teklifleri temel alarak
hazırlandığı tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla bütçe sürecinde arttırımcılığın var
olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arttırımcılık, bütçeleme, devlet bütçesi, karar alma

Kaynakça

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