Türkiye Yağış Şiddeti Serilerinin Homojenlik Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü tarafından işletilen 103 istasyondan 30 ile 78 yıl arasında değişen periyotlar için yıllık maksimum yağış şiddeti serilerinin homojenlik kontrolü yapılmıştır. Mutlak homojenlik testleri olarak bilinen Standart Normal Homojenlik Testi (SNHT), Buishand Aralık Testi (BRT), Pettitt Testi (PT) ve Von Neumann Oran Testi (VNRT) %95 güven aralığında uygulanmıştır. Standart süre verilerinden en az biri şüpheli veya sorunlu ise, istasyon homojen değil olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Homojenliği bozan faktörün muhtemel trend bileşenleri olduğu varsayılarak, trend bileşenleri ayrılmıştır. Daha sonra, yağış şiddeti serilerin mutlak homojenlik testleri yeniden uygulanmıştır. Analizler sonucunda 103 istasyonun 49'u 14 standart sürenin tamamında kullanılabilir olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Kalan 54 istasyonun 45'i, trend bileşenlerinden sonra tüm standart süreleri kullanılabilir olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. 103 istasyondan geriye kalan 8’inde ise trend bileşenleri ayrıldıktan sonra homojen olmayan değerlere sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Homojenlik analizi
• Türkiye
• Yağış Şiddeti

Homogeneity Analysis of Turkish Rainfall Intensity Series

Öz

In this study, homogeneity checking the annual maximum rainfall intensity series for periods ranging from 30 to 78 years were obtained from 103 stations operated by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Absolute homogeneity tests namely Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand Range Test (BRT), Pettitt Test (PT), and Von Neumann Ratio Test (VNRT) were applied at a confidence level of 95%. Stations were classified inhomogeneous if at least one of the standard durations data classified suspect or doubtful. Assuming that the factor destabilizing the homogeneity is the trend, a detrended methodology (DFA) was performed. After the implementation of DFA, absolute homogeneity tests were reapplied to the series of rainfall intensity. As a result of this study 49 of 103 stations called useful all 14 standard durations. 45 of the remaining 54 stations classified useful all standard durations after trend components separated from rainfall intensity series. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the remaining 8 of 103 stations had inhomogeneous values after the trend components were separated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Homogeneity analysis
• Turkey
• Rainfall Intensity

Kaynakça

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