DIŞ BORÇ ÖZEL YATIRIMIN BELİRLEYİCİSİ MİDİR? GÜNEY AFRİKA'DAN KANIT.

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 62 - 72, 31.01.2025

Brian Muyambiri , John-baptiste Mabejabe

Öz

Bu makale, finansal kalkınmayı, ticareti, tasarrufları ve ekonomik büyümeyi aralıklı faktörler olarak dahil ederek, Güney Afrika'da dış borç ile yatırım arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, analiz yöntemi olarak otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmaktadır. Çalışma bulguları, hem kısa vadede hem de uzun vadede dış borcun Güney Afrika'daki özel yatırımlar üzerinde zararlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ek bulgular, ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme ve gayri safi yurt içi tasarruf gibi faktörlerin Güney Afrika'daki özel yatırım seviyelerindeki dalgalanmaları açıklamada önemli bir rol oynamadığını gösteriyor. Bu durum, bu değişkenlerin hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ülkedeki özel yatırımı teşvik edecek politika araçları olarak etkili bir şekilde kullanılamayacağını göstermektedir. Ayrıca analiz, ticari açıklık ile özel yatırım arasında olumlu bir korelasyon olduğunu öne sürüyor. Politika ve strateji açısından bakıldığında, ticari açıklığı teşvik eden politikalar uygulanırken dış borcun azaltılmasına odaklanılmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Borç, Yatırım, Ekonomik Büyüme, Güney Afrika

Destekleyen Kurum

University of Johannesburg

IS EXTERNAL DEBT A DETERMINANT OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT? EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA

Öz

This article analyzes the relationship between external debt and investment in South Africa, incorporating financial development, trade, savings, and economic growth as intermittent factors. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach as a method of analysis. The study findings indicate that, in both the short term and the long run, external debt has a detrimental impact on private investment in South Africa. Additional findings indicate that factors such as economic growth, financial development, and gross domestic saving do not play a significant role in explaining fluctuations in private investment levels in South Africa. This suggests that these variables cannot be effectively utilized as policy tools to stimulate private investment in the country, both in the short and long run. Additionally, the analysis suggests that there is a favorable correlation between trade openness and private investment. From a policy and strategy standpoint, the focus should be on reducing external debt while implementing policies that encourage trade openness.

Anahtar Kelimeler

External Debt, Investment, Economic Growth, South Africa

Destekleyen Kurum

University of Johannesburg

Kaynakça

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