POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu; Aslan Aydoğdu

doi:10.17753/sosekev.1615419

EN TR

A Study on Policy Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risk with Investor Sentiment and Risk Aversion: TVP-VAR Approach

Öz

In this study, the dynamic relationships between economic, monetary, trade, oil, and climate policy uncertainty; geopolitical risks, investor sentiment; and risk aversion are analyzed using time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality methods for monthly data for the period from January 1997 to December 2023. According to the results, economic and monetary policy uncertainty is more influential on risk aversion, while trade and climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks have limited and transitory effects. EMU is one of the most important factors shaping investor behavior, while MPU is another critical factor affecting market expectations and investor sentiment. The findings reveal that market resilience increases over time and investor behavior adapts to economic and political uncertainties. However, the asymmetric effects of uncertainties on the financial system provide important warnings for policymakers and investors. In particular, economic policy uncertainty plays an important role in shaping risk perception, while investor sentiment and risk aversion behaviors are significantly affected by these uncertainties. Policy recommendations include developing mechanisms to limit the propagation of economic and political uncertainty and strengthening market regulations. In conclusion, this study provides valuable contributions to the understanding of the effects of economic and political uncertainties on financial markets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uncertainty, Geopolitical risk, Risk aversion, Investor sentiment, TVP-VAR, Causality

POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ekonomi, para, ticaret, petrol ve iklim politikası belirsizlikleri, jeopolitik riskler, yatırımcı duyarlılığı ve riskten kaçınma arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler Ocak 1997-Aralık 2023 dönemi aylık verileri için zamanla değişen parametre vektör otoregresyon (TVP-VAR) ve Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlara göre ekonomik ve para politikası belirsizliğinin riskten kaçınma üzerinde daha etkili olduğu; ticaret ve iklim politikası belirsizliği ile jeopolitik risklerin ise sınırlı ve geçici etkiler taşıdığı tespit edilmiştir. EPU’nun yatırımcı davranışlarını şekillendiren en önemli faktörlerden biri olduğu; MPU’nun ise piyasa beklentilerini ve yatırımcı duyarlılığını etkileyen bir diğer kritik unsur olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Bulgular, piyasa dayanıklılığının zamanla artış gösterdiğini ve yatırımcı davranışlarının ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklere uyum sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak, belirsizliklerin finansal sistemde yarattığı asimetrik etkiler, politika yapıcılar ve yatırımcılar için önemli uyarılar sunmaktadır. Özellikle ekonomik politika belirsizliği, risk algısını şekillendirmede önemli bir rol oynarken, yatırımcı duyarlılığı ve riskten kaçınma davranışlarının bu belirsizliklerden önemli ölçüde etkilendiği görülmüştür. Politika önerileri arasında ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin yayılımını sınırlayan mekanizmaların geliştirilmesi ve piyasa düzenlemelerinin güçlendirilmesi yer almaktadır. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma, ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerinin anlaşılmasına yönelik değerli katkılar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Belirsizlik, Jeopolitik risk, Riskten kaçınma, Yatırımcı duyarlılığı, TVP-VAR, Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Ekonomi, İşletme ve Yönetim Müfredatı ve Öğretimi, Zaman Serileri Analizi, Ekonometri (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu
0000-0002-4425-7479
Türkiye

Aslan Aydoğdu ^*
0000-0001-9732-0614
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

25 Nisan 2025

Yayımlanma Tarihi

22 Haziran 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

7 Ocak 2025

Kabul Tarihi

15 Nisan 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Sayı: 102

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA32CK29ET

APA

Nazlıoğlu, E. H., & Aydoğdu, A. (2025). POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 102, 78-100. https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419

AMA

1.Nazlıoğlu EH, Aydoğdu A. POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi. 2025;(102):78-100. doi:10.17753/sosekev.1615419

Chicago

Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal, ve Aslan Aydoğdu. 2025. “POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI”. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, sy 102: 78-100. https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419.

EndNote

Nazlıoğlu EH, Aydoğdu A (01 Haziran 2025) POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi 102 78–100.

IEEE

[1]E. H. Nazlıoğlu ve A. Aydoğdu, “POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI”, EKEV Akademi Dergisi, sy 102, ss. 78–100, Haz. 2025, doi: 10.17753/sosekev.1615419.

ISNAD

Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal - Aydoğdu, Aslan. “POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI”. EKEV Akademi Dergisi. 102 (01 Haziran 2025): 78-100. https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419.

JAMA

1.Nazlıoğlu EH, Aydoğdu A. POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi. 2025;:78–100.

MLA

Nazlıoğlu, Elif Hilal, ve Aslan Aydoğdu. “POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI”. EKEV Akademi Dergisi, sy 102, Haziran 2025, ss. 78-100, doi:10.17753/sosekev.1615419.

Vancouver

1.Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu, Aslan Aydoğdu. POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi. 01 Haziran 2025;(102):78-100. doi:10.17753/sosekev.1615419

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The impact of energy uncertainty on BIST 100: A quantile-wavelet perspective

International Journal of Energy Studies

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1725730

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Nişantaşı Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1809527

A Study on Policy Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risk with Investor Sentiment and Risk Aversion: TVP-VAR Approach

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster

Cited By

The impact of energy uncertainty on BIST 100: A quantile-wavelet perspective

KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİK VE RİSKLERİN BORSA İSTANBUL ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST100 ÖRNEĞİNDEN KANITLAR