TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE BELİRSİZLİK ENDEKSİ- CDS PRİMLERİ- DÖVİZ KURU-TÜFE ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AMPRİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 5, 19 - 32

Mustafa Şit

https://doi.org/10.51727/tbj.1458957

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için iktisadi ve politik gelişmelerden kaynaklanan dünya belirsizlik endeksinin bazı makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla, dünya belirsizlik endeksi (WUI) ile tüfe, dolar/TL kuru ve CDS primleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik analizde 2007q1-2023q4 dönemi için elde edilen çeyreklik veriler kullanılmıştır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik modeli tercih edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları belirsizlik endeksinin kur ve enflasyon üzerinde etkili olduğunu dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. CDS primlerinden ise belirsizlik endeksine doğru nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca enflasyonda belirsizliğe yol açmaktadır. Tüm kanıtlar iktisadi teoriye uygun olup, nedensellik sebepleri iktisadi olarak açıklanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi, CDS Risk Primi, Makroekonomik İşleyiş, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Nedensellik Analizi

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