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KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI

Yıl 2019, , 213 - 264, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298

Öz

Gelişmiş ülkelerde, Büyük Resesyondan çıkışın güçlü olmamasının nedenleri üzerine halen süren bir tartışma söz konusudur. Kalıcı durgunluk hipotezi, sorunu yapısal talep eksikliğine dayalı olarak açıklamaktadır. Finansal döngü durgunluğu görüşü ise çıkışın zayıflığını, Büyük Sakinlik döneminde izlenen iktisat politikalarının bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıkan finansal döngünün, aşırı büyümesi ile ilişkilendirmektedir. Finansal döngünün ayrıca küresel bir boyutu da vardır. Küresel finansal döngü (KFD), gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının küresel finansal kriz sonrası izlediği konvansiyonel olmayan para politikalarına bağlı olarak gerçekleşen sermaye akımları, varlık fiyatları ve kredi büyümesinin birlikte hareketini kapsar. KFD, yükselen piyasa ekonomileri merkez bankalarının para politikasını sınırlamakta ve esnek kur rejiminin varlığı, makroekonomik istikrarı sağlamak için yeterli olmamaktadır. Bu açıdan, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) da bir istisna değildir. KFD, fiyat istikrarı, finansal istikrar ve büyüme arasında TCMB için belirli politika açmazlarına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu açmazları tartışmayı ve kriz sonrası dönemde küresel sınırlamaların TCMB üzerindeki etkilerini ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. 

Kaynakça

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From Secular Stagnation to the Financial Cycle: Global Constraints and Policy Dilemmas of the CBRT

Yıl 2019, , 213 - 264, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298

Öz

There is an ongoing debate over the reasons for the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession in advanced countries. The secular stagnation hypothesis explains the slow recovery by structural demand deficiency. Contrary, the financial cycle drag view argues that the slow growth is associated with the previous boom of a financial cycle emanated from the policies implemented during the Great Moderation. There is also an international dimension of the financial cycle. The global financial cycle (GFCy) includes the co-movements of gross cfapital flows, asset prices and credit growth and is related to unconventional monetary policies undertaken by the major central banks after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The GFCy constrains central banks in emerging market economies and letting the exchange rate float is not enough to ensure macroeconomic stability. In this respect, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is not an exception. The GFCy creates certain policy dilemmas for the CBRT between price stability, financial stability and growth. This paper aims to argue these dilemmas and to evaluate global constraints on the CBRT in the aftermath of the GFC.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, D., Üçer, M. (2015). The Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth, 2002-2015: Political Dynamics, the European Union and the Institutional Slide, NBER Working Paper, No.21608.
  • Ahmed, S., Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
  • Aguiar, M., Gopinath, G. (2007). Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend, Journal of Political Economy, 115(1), 69-102.
  • Akat, A.S., Yazgan, E. (2013). Observations on Turkey’s Recent Economic Performance, Atlantic Economic Journal, 41(1), 1-27. Akyürek, C., Kutan, A. (2008). Inflation Targeting, Policy Rates and Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from Turkey, Comparative Economic Studies, 50(3), 460-493.
  • Alp, B., Yalçın, C. (2015). Türkiye’de Şirketlerin Borç Dolarizasyonu ve Büyüme Performansı, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No.1501.
  • Aydoğuş, O. (2018). Türkiye’de Milli Gelir Revizyonunun Sonuçları ve İnşaat Sektörü: OECD ve AB ile bir Karşılaştırma, Efil Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 10-20.
  • Aysan, A.F., Fendoğlu, S., Kilinc, M. (2014). Managing short-term capital flows in new central banking: unconventional monetary policy framework in Turkey, Eurasian Economic Review, 4(1), 45-69.
  • Bean, C., Paustian, M., Penalver, A., Taylor, T. (2010). Monetary Policy After the Fall. Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, 267-328.
  • Bean, C. R., Broda, C., Ito, T., Kroszner, R. (2015).  Low for Long? Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates. Geneva Report on the World Economy 17, Geneva: ICMB.
  • Benigno, G., Converse, N., Fornaro, L. (2015). Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance, Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Paper, No.1132.
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  • Dağlaroğlu, T., Demirel, B., Mahmud, S.F. (2018). Monetary Policy Implications of Short-term Capital Flows in Turkey, Empirica 45(84), 747-763.
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  • Demiralp, S., Demiralp, S. (2019). Erosion of Central Bank independence in Turkey, Turkish Studies, 20(1), 49-68.
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  • Drehmann, M., Borio, C., Tsatsaronis, K. (2012). Characterising the Financial Cycle: Don’t Lose Sight of the Medium Term!, BIS Working Papers, No. 380.
  • Dünya Bankası (2016). Türkiye’de Verimlilik Dinamikleri: Firma Verilerinden Elde Edilen Kanıtlar, Odak Notu, Temmuz.
  • ECB (2018). Economic Bulletin, Issue 8.
  • ECB. (2019). Monetary Policy Decisions, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2019/html/ecb.mp190307~7d8a9d2665.en.html Erişim Tarihi: 07.03.2019.
  • Edwards, S. (2018). Finding Equilibrium: On the Relation between Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy, BIS Papers, No.96.
  • El-Arian, M. (2010). Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries, Per Jacobsson Foundation, Washington D.C.
  • Eichengreen, B., Gupta, P. (2018). Managing Sudden Stops. Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, ed. E.G. Mendoza, E. Pastén, D. Saravia, Central Bank of Chile, 9-47.
  • Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. (2011). Politics and Monetary Policy, Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3), 941-960.
  • Ermişoğlu, E., Oduncu, A., Akçelik, Y. (2013a). Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Kur Oynaklığı, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, No. 2013-04.
  • Ermişoğlu, E., Akçelik, Y., Oduncu, A. (2013b). GDP Growth and Credit Data, CBRT Working Paper, No. 13/27.
  • Ersel, H., Özatay, F. (2008). Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 38-51.
  • Farmer, R.E.A. (2017). Prosperity for All How to Prevent Financial Crises, Oxford University Press.
  • FED (2019). Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans, Press Release, March 20, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190320c.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2019.
  • Filardo, A., Lombardi, M., Raczko, M. (2018). Measuring financial cycle time, BIS Working Papers, No. 755.
  • Gauvin, L., McLoughlin, C., Reinhardt, D. (2014). Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets- evidence from capital flows, Bank of England Working Paper, No. 512. Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Qureshi, M.S., Zalduendo, J. (2012). Surges, IMF Working Paper, No.12/22.
  • Gordon, R.J. (2015). Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View, American Economic Review, 105(5), 54-59.
  • Günay, H., Kılınç, M. (2011). Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Asymmetries in Turkey, CBRT Working Paper, No.11/07.
  • Günlük-Şenesen, G., Kaya, T., Şenesen, Ü. (2013). İnşaat Kesimi, İstihdam mı Yaratıyor, Dışalımı mı Uyarıyor?, Ekonomi-tek, 2(3), 23-46.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kantur, Z., Taş, M.A. (2015). Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence, İktisat İşletme ve Finans 30(356), 9-38.
  • Haldane, A.G., Roberts-Sklar, M., Wieladek, T., Young, C. (2016). QE: the story so far, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No.624.
  • Hansen, A.H. (1939). Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth, American Economic Review, 29(1), 1-15.
  • Hofmann, B., Bogdanova, B. (2012). Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global Great Deviation, BIS Quarterly Review, September, 37-49.
  • Holston, K., Laubach, T., Williams, J.H. (2017). Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants, Journal of International Economics, 108, 59-75. IMF. (2013). World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, and Risks, April.
  • IMF. (2016). Debt Use It Wisely, Fiscal Monitor, World Economic and Financial Surveys, October.
  • IMF (2017). Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows-The Role of Macroprudential Policies, IMF Policy Paper, No. 17/260.
  • İlhan, A. (2018). Finansal İstikrarı Sağlamaya Yönelik Alternatif Politika Çerçeveleri, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55(635), 21-36.
  • İlhan, A. (2019). The Changing Role of Monetary Policy On Financial Stability After The Global Financial Crisis, Research & Reviews in Social, Human and Administrative Sciences, ed. O. Çoban, A. Erbaşı, E. Karakoç, F. Karasioğlu, Ankara: Gece Kitaplığı, 209-226.
  • Jirasavetakul, L.F., Spilimbergo, A. (2018). Economic Policy Unccertainty in Turkey, IMF Working Paper, No.18/272.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M. (2011). Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, IMF Economic Review, 59(2), 340-378.
  • Juselius, M., Borio, C., Disyatat, P., Drehmann, M. (2017). Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates, International Journal of Central Banking, 13(3), 55-89.
  • Kara, H. (2013). Monetary Policy after the Global Crisis. Atlantic Economic Journal, 41(1), 51-74.
  • Kara, H., Öğünç, F., Sarıkaya, Ç. (2017). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: A Historical Accounting, CBRT Research Notes in Economics, No.2017-03.
  • Krugman, P. (2014). Four Observations on Secular Stagnation, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, eds. C. Teulings, R.Baldwin, CEPR, 61-68.
  • Kolsuz, G., Yeldan, A.E. (2014). 1980 Sonrası Türkiye Ekonomisinde Büyümenin Kaynaklarının Ayrıştırılması, Çalışma ve Toplum, 40 (1), 49-66.
  • Lucas, R.E. (2003). Macroeconomic Priorities, American Economic Review, 93(1), 1-14.
  • Mian, A., Sufi, A. (2018). Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32 (3), 31-58.
  • Miranda Agrippino, S., Rey, H. (2019). US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle, NBER Working Paper, No. 21722.
  • Nicolo, G. de, Delariccia, G., Laeven, L., Valencia, F. (2010). Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Taking, IMF Staff Position Note, 10/09.
  • Obstfeld, M. (2015). Trilemmas and tradeoffs: living with financial globalisation, BIS Working Papers, No. 480.
  • Obstfeld, M., Taylor, A.M. (2017). International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31 (3), 3-28.
  • Özatay, F. (2011). Merkez Bankasının Yeni Para Politikası: İki Hedef-Üç Ara Hedef-Üç Araç, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 27-43.
  • Özatay, F. (2016). Turkey’s Distressing Dance With Capital Flows, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(2), 336-350.
  • Özdemir, M. (2013). Enflasyon Hedeflemesinden Finansal İstikrara: Kriz Sonrası TCMB’nin Para Politikası Arayışları, Prof.Dr.Cihan Dura’ya Armağan 2000’li Yıllarda Türkiye Ekonomisi: Yapısal Dönüşümler, Ana Sorunlar ve Çözüme Dönük Politika Önerileri, ed. H. Atik, Ankara: Nobel Yay., 127-170.
  • Özdemir, M. (2014). Krizin Ardından Makroiktisat ve Enflasyon Hedeflemesi: Quo Vadis?, Prof.Dr. İlker Parasız’a Armağan Bir Duayen ile İktisat ve Finansı Çok Boyutlu Düşünmek, der. A.Arı, Ankara: Efil Yay., 187-236.
  • Özdemir, M. (2015). Çin’in Seçimi: Bu Kez Farklı, Dünya, 12 Eylül.
  • Özdemir, M., Arabaci, Ö. (2012). Kredi Kullanımı ve Cari Açık İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği, Para, Kur, Maliye Politikaları ve Reel Ekonomi, ed. F.Öztürk, T.Göksel, Ankara: İmaj Yay., 15-29.
  • Özdemir, M., Akdeniz, C., İlhan, A. (2017). Küresel Finansal Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrasında Enflasyon Hedeflemesi ve Döviz Kuru: Türkiye Örneği, Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu 19.Ulusal İktisat Sempozyumu, 3-4 Kasım, KKTC.
  • Passari, E., Rey, H. (2015). Financial flows and the international monetary system, The Economic Journal, 125, 675–98.
  • Pindyck, R.S. (1991). Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Investment, Journal of Economic Literature, 29 (3), 1110-1148.
  • Powell, J.H. (2019). Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Rey, H. (2013). Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence, Global dimensions of unconventional monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, 285-333.
  • Rey, H. (2017). The global financial system, the real rate of interest and a long history of boombust cycles, Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture, BIS, http://www.bis.org/events/agm2017/sp170625_lecture.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2019.
  • Rossi, M., Rebucci, A. (2004). Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey, IMF Working Paper, No. 04/208. Schmoller, M. (2018). Secular Stagnation: A False alarm in the Euro area?. Bank of Finland Bulletin, No.4.
  • Siklos, P. (2018). Boom-and-Bust Cycles in Emerging Markets: How Important is the Exchange Rate?, Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 172-187.
  • Summers, L.H. (2013). Speech at the IMF’s Fourteenth Annual Research Conference in Honour of Stanley Fischer, Washington D.C., http://larrysummers.com/imf-fourteenth-annual-research-conference-in-honor-of-stanley-fischer Erişim Tarihi: 10.06.2017.
  • Summers, L.H. (2014). Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, eds. C. Teulings, R.Baldwin, CEPR, 27-38. Summers, L.H. (2015a). Demand Side Secular Stagnation, American Economic Review, 105(5), 60-65.
  • Summers, L.H. (2015b). On Secular Stagnation: Larry Summers Responds to Ben Bernanke, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2015/04/01/on-secular-stagnation-larry-summers-responds-to-ben-bernanke/ Erişim Tarihi: 10.02.2019.
  • Summers, L. (2016). Age of Secular Stagnation, Foreign Affairs, 95(2), 2-9.
  • Şahinöz, S., Coşar, E. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey, Applied Economics Letters, 25(21), 1517-1520.
  • Taylor, J.B. (2013). International monetary coordination and the great deviation, Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(3), 463-472.
  • TCMB (2009). Finansal İstikrar Raporu, Sayı 9, Kasım.
  • TCMB (2011). 2012 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası. Ankara.
  • TCMB (2015). Küresel Para Politikalarının Normalleşme Sürecinde Yol Haritası, Basın Duyurusu, 18 Ağustos.
  • TCMB (2017). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti, 24 Ocak.
  • TCMB (2018a). Para Politikası Operasyonel Çerçevesine İlişkin Basın Duyurusu, 28 Mayıs.
  • TCMB (2018b). Para Politikası Kurulu Kararı, 13 Eylül.
  • TCMB (2018c). Finansal İstikrar Raporu, Sayı 27, Kasım.
  • TCMB (2018d). Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti, 31 Ekim.
  • Telatar, E. (2011). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Belirleyicileri Ve Cari Açık-Krediler İlişkisi, Bankacılar Dergisi, 78, 22-34.
  • Teulings, C., Baldwin, R. (2014). Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, CEPR.
  • Togan, S., Berument, H. (2011). Cari İşlemler Dengesi, Sermaye Hareketleri ve Krediler, Bankacılar Dergisi, 78, 3-21.
  • Tolstoy, L. (2018). Anna Karenina, çev: U.Büke, Can Yayınları.
  • Turner, P. (2015). Global Monetary Policies and the Markets: Policy Dilemmas in the Emerging Markets, Comparative Economic Studies, 57(2), 276–299.
  • TÜİK (2016). Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) ve Mevsim ve Takvim Etkilerinden Arındırılmış GSYİH Hesaplarına İlişkin Kamuoyu Duyurusu, 27 Aralık, http://www.tuik.gov.tr//duyurular/duyuru_3259.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 07.02.2019.
  • Üçer, M. (2011). Son Para Politikası Uygulamaları Üzerine Gözlemler, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26(302), 45-51.
  • Ünal, E. (2018). An institutional approach and input-output analysis for explaining the transformation of the Turkish economy, Journal of Economic Structures, 7(3), 1-38.
  • Yazgan, E.M., Yılmazkuday, H. (2007). Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey and Israel, Applied Financial Economics,17(1), 1-8.
  • Yeldan, A.E., Unuvar, B. (2016). An Assessment of the Turkish Economy in the AKP Era. Research and Policy on Turkey, 1(1), 11-28.
  • Yeldan, A.E., Kolsuz, G., Unuvar, B. (2014). What to Smooth: Rate of Interest or the Foreign Exchange? Turkish Monetary Policy under Turbulent Times, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 10(3), 247-261.
  • Yellen, J. L. (2014). Monetary Policy and Financial Stability. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Woodfrod, M. (2003). Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. USA: Princeton University Press.
Toplam 120 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Metin Özdemir

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019

Kaynak Göster

APA Özdemir, M. (2019). KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 6, 213-264. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298
AMA Özdemir M. KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. Haziran 2019;6:213-264. doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.584298
Chicago Özdemir, Metin. “KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR Ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 6, Haziran (Haziran 2019): 213-64. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298.
EndNote Özdemir M (01 Haziran 2019) KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 6 213–264.
IEEE M. Özdemir, “KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI”, TESAM Akademi Dergisi, c. 6, ss. 213–264, 2019, doi: 10.30626/tesamakademi.584298.
ISNAD Özdemir, Metin. “KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR Ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 6 (Haziran 2019), 213-264. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298.
JAMA Özdemir M. KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2019;6:213–264.
MLA Özdemir, Metin. “KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR Ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, c. 6, 2019, ss. 213-64, doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.584298.
Vancouver Özdemir M. KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2019;6:213-64.