KALICI DURGUNLUKTAN FİNANSAL DÖNGÜYE: KÜRESEL KISITLAR ve TCMB’NİN POLİTİKA AÇMAZLARI

Yıl 2019, TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖZEL SAYISI, 213 - 264, 30.06.2019

Metin Özdemir

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.584298

Öz

Gelişmiş ülkelerde, Büyük Resesyondan çıkışın güçlü olmamasının nedenleri üzerine halen süren bir tartışma söz konusudur. Kalıcı durgunluk hipotezi, sorunu yapısal talep eksikliğine dayalı olarak açıklamaktadır. Finansal döngü durgunluğu görüşü ise çıkışın zayıflığını, Büyük Sakinlik döneminde izlenen iktisat politikalarının bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıkan finansal döngünün, aşırı büyümesi ile ilişkilendirmektedir. Finansal döngünün ayrıca küresel bir boyutu da vardır. Küresel finansal döngü (KFD), gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının küresel finansal kriz sonrası izlediği konvansiyonel olmayan para politikalarına bağlı olarak gerçekleşen sermaye akımları, varlık fiyatları ve kredi büyümesinin birlikte hareketini kapsar. KFD, yükselen piyasa ekonomileri merkez bankalarının para politikasını sınırlamakta ve esnek kur rejiminin varlığı, makroekonomik istikrarı sağlamak için yeterli olmamaktadır. Bu açıdan, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) da bir istisna değildir. KFD, fiyat istikrarı, finansal istikrar ve büyüme arasında TCMB için belirli politika açmazlarına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu açmazları tartışmayı ve kriz sonrası dönemde küresel sınırlamaların TCMB üzerindeki etkilerini ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kalıcı Durgunluk, Finansal Döngü Durgunluğu, Küresel Finansal Döngü, Fiyat İstikrarı, Finansal İstikrar, Para Politikası, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, Türkiye Ekonomisi

From Secular Stagnation to the Financial Cycle: Global Constraints and Policy Dilemmas of the CBRT

Öz

There is an ongoing debate over the reasons for the sluggish recovery from the Great Recession in advanced countries. The secular stagnation hypothesis explains the slow recovery by structural demand deficiency. Contrary, the financial cycle drag view argues that the slow growth is associated with the previous boom of a financial cycle emanated from the policies implemented during the Great Moderation. There is also an international dimension of the financial cycle. The global financial cycle (GFCy) includes the co-movements of gross cfapital flows, asset prices and credit growth and is related to unconventional monetary policies undertaken by the major central banks after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The GFCy constrains central banks in emerging market economies and letting the exchange rate float is not enough to ensure macroeconomic stability. In this respect, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is not an exception. The GFCy creates certain policy dilemmas for the CBRT between price stability, financial stability and growth. This paper aims to argue these dilemmas and to evaluate global constraints on the CBRT in the aftermath of the GFC.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Secular Stagnation, Financial Cycle Drag, Global Financial Cycle, Price Stability, Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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