Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices on Turkish Foreign Trade

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 103 - 121, 31.08.2019

M.büşra Engin Öztürk İşın Kırışkan

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.613525

Cited By: 1

Öz

Exchange rate and oil prices play an important role in a country’s trade performance. Whether determined by exogenous shocks or by a policy, the relative valuations of currencies and their volatility often have important impact on international trade, the balance of payments and overall economic performance. This study aims to analyze Turkey’s foreign trade with Euro Area and USA separately between 2010-2016 time periods. We have estimated three different regressions. First one is for analyzing the effects of euro on Turkey-Euro area foreign trade, the second one is for determining the effects of US dollar on Turkey-USA foreign trade and the third one is for examining the effects of oil prices on oil trade between Turkey and Russia. For this study we use the panel regression techniques. As a result we can conclude that countries should monitor their exchange rate relative not only to that of their trading partners but also in relation to that of their competitors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate, Oil Prices, Foreign Trade, Panel Data, Panel Estimation Techniques

Döviz Kurları ve Petrol Fiyatlarının Türk Dış Ticaretine Etkisi

Öz

Döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatları bir ülkenin ticaret performansında önemli bir rol oynar. İster dışsal bir şok, isterse de bir politika sonucunda belirlensin, yerli para biriminin nispi değeri ve dalgalanmaları uluslararası ticaret, ödemeler dengesi ve tüm ekonomik performans üzerinde önemli bir etki yaratmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’ nin dış ticaretinin 2010-2016 dönemi için Ameirka ve Euro Bölgesi için ayrı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Üç farklı regresyon tahmini yapılmıştır. Birincisi, Türkiye-Euro bölgesi dış ticareti üzerinde Euro’ nun etkisini analiz etmek için, ikincisi, Türkiye-ABD dış ticareti üzerinde Amerikan dolarının etkisini belirlemek için ve üçüncüsü, Türkiye-Rusya arasındaki petrol icareti üzerine petrol fiyatlarının etkisini incelemek içindir. Bu çalışma için panel regresyon teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, ülkeler döviz kurlarını sadece ticari partnerleri içind değil, aynı zamanda rakipleri için de bir montirör olarak görmeleri gerektiği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru, Petrol Fiyatları, Dış Ticaret, Panel Data, Panel Data Tahmin Teknikler

Kaynakça

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