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Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 683 - 701, 19.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.991071

Öz

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies are different, however financial markets followed a similar pattern. This paper investigates the preliminary effect of the pandemic on China’s stock exchange market and foreign exchange market by comparing the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The results indicate that there is a significant interaction between two markets and both markets do not behave randomly. This linkage is crucial to determine the macroeconomic policies against a random walk. We investigate that the monetary policy interventions have positive effect to increase efficiency of financial markets. Moreover, financial markets do not follow a random walk path. It can be said that now, China’s money market in an upward trend due to the relatively reduce in uncertainty and pessimist expectations.

Kaynakça

  • Andreau, E., Matsi, M., Savvide, A. (2013). Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 27(2013),248-268.
  • Avalos, F. and Zakrajsek, E. (2020). Covid-19 and SARS: What do stock markets tell us? BIS Quarterly Review.
  • Ayaji, R. A. and Mougoue, M. (1996). On the dynamic relation between stock prices and exchange rates. The Journal of Financial Research, 19, 193-207.
  • Ayaji, R. A., Joseph F.R., and Mehdian, S. M. (1998). On the relationship between stock returns and exchange Rates: test of Granger causality. Global Finance Journal, 9(2), 241-251.
  • Bachelier L. (1900). Theory of speculation. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Academy of Paris on March 29, 1900, and also in P. H. Cootner (1964) (Eds). The Random walk character of stock market prices. MIT Press.
  • Branson, W., Halttunen, H., Masson, P. (1977). Exchange rate in the short-run the dollar-deutsche mark rate. European Economic Review, 10(3), 303-324.
  • Brenner, M. (1977). The Effect of Model Misspecification on Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, The Journal of Finance, 32(1), 57-66.
  • CEIC (2020). CEIC: Global economic data, indicators, charts and forecasts. Access date: 25.03.2020. https://www.ceicdata.com/en.
  • Dimitrova, D. (2005). The Relationships between exchange rate and stock prices. Issues in Political Economy 14.
  • Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161-1176.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. (1980). Exchange rates and the current account. American Economic Review, 70(5), 960-971.
  • Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
  • Fama, E. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. American Economic Review, 71, 545-65.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1983). Monetary and portfolio-balance of exchange rate determination. In J. Bhandari (Eds.). Economic interdependence and flexible exchange rates. MIT Press. Cambridge.
  • Gavin, M. (1989). The stock market and exchange rate dynamics. International Money and Finance, 8(2), 181-200.
  • Granger, C.W.J., Huan, B., and Yang, C.W. (2000). A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asian Flu. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 40, 337-354.
  • Gumus, F.B. and Zeren, F. (2014). Analyzing the efficient market hypothesis with the fourier unit root tests: evidence from G20 countries. Ekonomski Horizonti, 16(3), 225-237.
  • Inci, A.C. and Lee, B.S. (2014). Dynamic relations between stock returns and exchange rate changes. European Financial Management, 20(1), 71-116.
  • Karamchandani, M., Mohadikar, S., Jain, S. (2014). Stock Indices of BRIC economies: explored by non-linear dynamics and volatility. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(6), 53-65.
  • Kiran, S., Rao, R. P. (2019). Analysis of stock market efficiency in emerging markets: Evidence from BRICS. The Romanian Economic Journal, 72, 60-77.
  • Lanau, S. and Fortu, J. (2020). Economic views-The Covid-19 shock to EM flows. The Institute of International Finance.
  • Lee, C., Lee, J., Lee, C. (2010). Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks. Japan and the World Economy, 22(1), 49-58.
  • Lee, C., Tsong, C., Lee, C. (2014). Testing for the efficient market hypothesis in stock prices: international evidence from non-linear heterogenous panels. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18(4), 948-953.
  • Li, X-M., Rose, L.C. (2008). Market integration and extreme co-movements in APEC emerging equity markets. Applied Financial Economics, 18(2), 99–113.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (1973). The time-tested strategy for successful investing: A Random walk down Wall Street. W.W. Norton & Company Inc. USA.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
  • Naresh, G., Vasudevan, G., Mahalakshimi, S., Thiyigarajan, S. (2018).Spillover effect of US dollar on the stock indices of BRICS. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 359-368.
  • Nieh, C., and C. Lee. (2001). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rate for G7 countries. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 41, 477-490.
  • Obstfeld M. (1986), Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises, American Economic Review, 40, 72-80.
  • Obstfeld M. (1994), The Logic of Currency Crises, NBER Working Papers, No: 4640.
  • Reuters (2020). China cuts banks’ reserve ratios again frees up $115 billion to spur economy. https://www.reuters.com/. Access date: 25.03. 2020.
  • Solnik, B. (1987). Using financial prices to test exchange rate models: A note”. Journal of Finance. 42:141-49. Stavarek, D. (2005). Stock prices and exchange rates in the EU and the USA: evidence of their mutual interactions. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 55(3-4), 141-161.
  • Timmermann, A., Granger, C.W.J. (2004). Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2004), 15-27.
  • Tobin, J. (1978). Monetary policies and the ecoonomy: the transmission mechanism. Southern Economic Journal, 44, 421-431.
  • Toporowski, J. (2019). Monetary Policy in an Era of Capital Market Inflation. Working Paper No.279. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Annandale-on-Hudson, NY.
  • Ülkü, N., Demirci, E. (2012). Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(1), 55–86
  • WHO (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Access date: 20.03. 2020. https://www.who.int/.

Çin Finansal Piyasalarında Covid-19 Ateşi: Döviz Piyasası ve Hisse Senedi Piyasası Arasındaki Etkileşim

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 683 - 701, 19.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.991071

Öz

COVID-19 pandemisinin ekonomiler üzerindeki etkileri farklı olsa da finansal piyasalar benzer bir yol izlemiştir. Finansal ekonomi yaklaşımları, eklenmeyen bir dış şok neticesinde ülkelerin öncelikle finans piyasalarının etkileneceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, dışsal bir etkide ilk aşamada gelişmekte olan ülkelerin borsaları veya döviz kuru piyasası etkilenmekte ikinci aşamada ise bu etki diğer piyasaya sıçramaktadır. Çalışma, pandemi öncesi ve pandemi sonrası dönemleri karşılaştırarak, pandeminin Çin borsası ve döviz piyasası üzerindeki ön etkisini COVID-19 verileri ve ilgili istatistikler (günlük yeni vaka sayısı, yeni ölüm oranları), Pearson korelasyon testi uygulayarak araştırmaktadır. Ayrıca, SSEC index ve CNY döviz kurlarının günlük dağılımları karşılaştırmaları olarak box plotlar ile gösterilmiştir. Zira ilk etkilenen piyasanın belirlenmesi, piyasalardaki yüksek volatilitenin ve risk unsurunun giderilmesi anlamında politika yapıcılara yol gösterici olacaktır. Sonuçlar, iki piyasa arasında önemli bir etkileşim olduğunu ve her iki piyasanın da rastgele davranmadığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlantı, rastgele bir yürüyüşe (random walk) karşı makroekonomik politikaları belirlemek için oldukça önemlidir. Para politikası müdahalelerinin finansal piyasaların etkinliğini artırmada olumlu etkisinin olup olmadığı makalenin temel araştırma sorusudur. Araştırmaların bulgularına göre, her ne kadar hisse senedi fiyatları rastgele yürüyüşe göre hareket etse de, Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin dayandığı gibi, bilgiye dayalı bir fiyat hareketi olduğu görülmektedir. İzleyen süreçte belirsizliğin nispeten azalması ve kötümser beklentiler nedeniyle Çin para piyasasının artık yükseliş eğiliminde olduğu söylenebilir.

Kaynakça

  • Andreau, E., Matsi, M., Savvide, A. (2013). Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 27(2013),248-268.
  • Avalos, F. and Zakrajsek, E. (2020). Covid-19 and SARS: What do stock markets tell us? BIS Quarterly Review.
  • Ayaji, R. A. and Mougoue, M. (1996). On the dynamic relation between stock prices and exchange rates. The Journal of Financial Research, 19, 193-207.
  • Ayaji, R. A., Joseph F.R., and Mehdian, S. M. (1998). On the relationship between stock returns and exchange Rates: test of Granger causality. Global Finance Journal, 9(2), 241-251.
  • Bachelier L. (1900). Theory of speculation. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Academy of Paris on March 29, 1900, and also in P. H. Cootner (1964) (Eds). The Random walk character of stock market prices. MIT Press.
  • Branson, W., Halttunen, H., Masson, P. (1977). Exchange rate in the short-run the dollar-deutsche mark rate. European Economic Review, 10(3), 303-324.
  • Brenner, M. (1977). The Effect of Model Misspecification on Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, The Journal of Finance, 32(1), 57-66.
  • CEIC (2020). CEIC: Global economic data, indicators, charts and forecasts. Access date: 25.03.2020. https://www.ceicdata.com/en.
  • Dimitrova, D. (2005). The Relationships between exchange rate and stock prices. Issues in Political Economy 14.
  • Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161-1176.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. (1980). Exchange rates and the current account. American Economic Review, 70(5), 960-971.
  • Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
  • Fama, E. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money. American Economic Review, 71, 545-65.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1983). Monetary and portfolio-balance of exchange rate determination. In J. Bhandari (Eds.). Economic interdependence and flexible exchange rates. MIT Press. Cambridge.
  • Gavin, M. (1989). The stock market and exchange rate dynamics. International Money and Finance, 8(2), 181-200.
  • Granger, C.W.J., Huan, B., and Yang, C.W. (2000). A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asian Flu. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 40, 337-354.
  • Gumus, F.B. and Zeren, F. (2014). Analyzing the efficient market hypothesis with the fourier unit root tests: evidence from G20 countries. Ekonomski Horizonti, 16(3), 225-237.
  • Inci, A.C. and Lee, B.S. (2014). Dynamic relations between stock returns and exchange rate changes. European Financial Management, 20(1), 71-116.
  • Karamchandani, M., Mohadikar, S., Jain, S. (2014). Stock Indices of BRIC economies: explored by non-linear dynamics and volatility. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(6), 53-65.
  • Kiran, S., Rao, R. P. (2019). Analysis of stock market efficiency in emerging markets: Evidence from BRICS. The Romanian Economic Journal, 72, 60-77.
  • Lanau, S. and Fortu, J. (2020). Economic views-The Covid-19 shock to EM flows. The Institute of International Finance.
  • Lee, C., Lee, J., Lee, C. (2010). Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks. Japan and the World Economy, 22(1), 49-58.
  • Lee, C., Tsong, C., Lee, C. (2014). Testing for the efficient market hypothesis in stock prices: international evidence from non-linear heterogenous panels. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 18(4), 948-953.
  • Li, X-M., Rose, L.C. (2008). Market integration and extreme co-movements in APEC emerging equity markets. Applied Financial Economics, 18(2), 99–113.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (1973). The time-tested strategy for successful investing: A Random walk down Wall Street. W.W. Norton & Company Inc. USA.
  • Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
  • Naresh, G., Vasudevan, G., Mahalakshimi, S., Thiyigarajan, S. (2018).Spillover effect of US dollar on the stock indices of BRICS. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 359-368.
  • Nieh, C., and C. Lee. (2001). Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rate for G7 countries. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 41, 477-490.
  • Obstfeld M. (1986), Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance of Payments Crises, American Economic Review, 40, 72-80.
  • Obstfeld M. (1994), The Logic of Currency Crises, NBER Working Papers, No: 4640.
  • Reuters (2020). China cuts banks’ reserve ratios again frees up $115 billion to spur economy. https://www.reuters.com/. Access date: 25.03. 2020.
  • Solnik, B. (1987). Using financial prices to test exchange rate models: A note”. Journal of Finance. 42:141-49. Stavarek, D. (2005). Stock prices and exchange rates in the EU and the USA: evidence of their mutual interactions. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 55(3-4), 141-161.
  • Timmermann, A., Granger, C.W.J. (2004). Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2004), 15-27.
  • Tobin, J. (1978). Monetary policies and the ecoonomy: the transmission mechanism. Southern Economic Journal, 44, 421-431.
  • Toporowski, J. (2019). Monetary Policy in an Era of Capital Market Inflation. Working Paper No.279. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Annandale-on-Hudson, NY.
  • Ülkü, N., Demirci, E. (2012). Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(1), 55–86
  • WHO (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Access date: 20.03. 2020. https://www.who.int/.
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serpil Kahraman 0000-0003-4570-1604

Görkem Sarıyer 0000-0002-8290-2248

Yayımlanma Tarihi 19 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Kahraman, S., & Sarıyer, G. (2022). Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 9(2), 683-701. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.991071
AMA Kahraman S, Sarıyer G. Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. Ağustos 2022;9(2):683-701. doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.991071
Chicago Kahraman, Serpil, ve Görkem Sarıyer. “Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 9, sy. 2 (Ağustos 2022): 683-701. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.991071.
EndNote Kahraman S, Sarıyer G (01 Ağustos 2022) Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 9 2 683–701.
IEEE S. Kahraman ve G. Sarıyer, “Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market”, TESAM Akademi Dergisi, c. 9, sy. 2, ss. 683–701, 2022, doi: 10.30626/tesamakademi.991071.
ISNAD Kahraman, Serpil - Sarıyer, Görkem. “Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 9/2 (Ağustos 2022), 683-701. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.991071.
JAMA Kahraman S, Sarıyer G. Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2022;9:683–701.
MLA Kahraman, Serpil ve Görkem Sarıyer. “Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, c. 9, sy. 2, 2022, ss. 683-01, doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.991071.
Vancouver Kahraman S, Sarıyer G. Covid-19’s Fever on Financial Markets in China: The Interaction Between Foreign Exchange Market and the Stock Market. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2022;9(2):683-701.