Döviz Kuru Volatilitesinin İmalat Sanayii İhracatına Etkisi: Türkiye Almanya İhracatı Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 537 - 559, 31.07.2025

Derya Hekim

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1726702

Öz

Döviz kuru volatilitesinin ihracatı arttırıp arttırmadığı dalgalı kurlara geçişle birlikte literatürde tartışılan bir konu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada da buradan hareketle döviz kuru volatilitesinin Türkiye’nin Almanya’ya imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini, 2013 Ocak – 2025 Şubat dönemine ait aylık verilerle incelemektedir. Reel döviz kuru volatilitesi GARCH (1,1) modeli ile ölçülmüş, kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkiler ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, döviz kuru volatilitesinin ihracat üzerinde kısa dönemde anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını, uzun dönemde ise pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, Türkiye ve Almanya’nın sanayi üretimi değişkenlerinin Türkiye’nin Almanya’ya imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz kuru volatilitesi , imalat sanayii ihracatı , GARCH , ARDL

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from Turkiye’s Exports to Germany

Öz

The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports has been a widely discussed topic in the literature, particularly following the transition to floating exchange rate regimes. Motivated by this ongoing discussion, this study investigates how exchange rate volatility affects Turkiye’s manufacturing exports to Germany, utilizing monthly data covering the period from January 2013 to February 2025.The volatility of the real exchange rate is measured using the GARCH (1,1) model, while the short- and long-run relationships are analyzed with the ARDL bounds testing approach. The findings indicate that exchange rate volatility does not have a significant effect on exports in the short run, but has a positive and significant effect in the long run. In addition, both Turkiye’s and Germany’s industrial production have a positive and statistically significant effect on Turkiye’s manufacturing exports to Germany.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange rate volatility , manufacturing exports , GARCH , ARDL

Kaynakça

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