Makroekonomı̇k Dengeler ve Jeopolı̇tı̇k Rı̇skler: Türkı̇ye'de Yurtı̇çı̇ Tasarrufların Belı̇rleyı̇cı̇lerı̇

Öz

Tasarruf, ekonomik açıdan olduğu kadar dini ve entelektüel perspektiften de kritik bir kavramdır ve bireysel ile toplumsal refahın sürdürülebilirliğinde temel bir yapı taşıdır. Bu çalışma, 1985-2023 döneminde Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümenin iç tasarruf düzeyi üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada, cari işlemler dengesi, enflasyon, döviz kuru ve jeopolitik riskler gibi önemli makroekonomik değişkenler kontrol değişkeni olarak dahil edilmiştir. Ampirik analizler, ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyonun tasarrufları olumlu etkilediğini ortaya koyarken, cari açık ve jeopolitik risklerin tasarruflar üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Döviz kurunun etkisi negatif olmakla birlikte istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Çalışmanın özgün yanı, jeopolitik risklerin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisini literatürde nadir incelenen bir boyut olarak ele almasıdır. Bulgular, ekonomik ve siyasi istikrarın tasarrufların artırılmasında temel bir ön koşul olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, politika yapıcıların sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik eden, enflasyonist baskıları kontrol altına alan ve dışsal ile jeopolitik riskleri etkin bir şekilde yöneten makroekonomik politikalar geliştirmelerinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, yapısal cari işlemler açığının giderilmesine yönelik reformların hayata geçirilmesi, iç tasarruf oranlarının sürdürülebilir şekilde yükseltilmesine katkı sağlayacak stratejik bir unsur olarak değerlendirilebilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tasarruf
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Cari Hesap Bakiyesi
• Döviz Kuru
• Jeopolitik Riskler

Macroeconomic Balances and Geopolitical Risks: Determinants of Domestic Savings in Türkiye

Öz

Saving is a critical concept not only from an economic perspective but also from religious and intellectual standpoints, serving as a fundamental pillar for the sustainability of individual and social welfare. This study aims to empirically examine the effects of economic growth on the level of domestic savings in Turkey over the period 1985–2023. The analysis incorporates key macroeconomic variables such as the current account balance, inflation, exchange rate, and geopolitical risks as control factors. The empirical results reveal that economic growth and inflation positively affect savings, whereas current account deficits and geopolitical risks have adverse impacts. Although the exchange rate shows a negative effect, it is not statistically significant. The study’s originality lies in addressing the largely underexplored influence of geopolitical risks on savings in the literature. The findings indicate that economic and political stability constitute essential prerequisites for increasing savings. The results emphasize the importance of policymakers developing macroeconomic policies that promote sustainable economic growth, control inflationary pressures, and effectively manage external and geopolitical risks. Furthermore, implementing reforms aimed at resolving structural current account deficits can be considered a strategic factor contributing to the sustainable increase of domestic savings rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savings
• Economic Growth
• Current Account Balance
• Exchange Rate
• Geopolitical Risks

Kaynakça

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