Türkiye için İklim Değişikliği Projeksiyonları: Üç Model ve İki Senaryo

Öz

Climate Change Projections for Turkey: Three Models and Two Scenarios

Öz

“A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world”. The name “representative concentration pathways – RCP’s” are referred to as pathways in order to emphasize that their primary purpose is to provide time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gasses (GHGs) concentrations. In this study, it is intended to reveal the possibilities of future climate change for Turkey and its surrounding region. HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M Global Circulation Models’ RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios outputs were used in the study. Temperature and precipitation projections were produced from these outputs, based on domain with 20 km resolution, covering period between 2016 and 2099 and using regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 and with dynamic downscaling method. According to the models results, it is expected that an increase between 1°C and 6°C in mean temperatures of Turkey. In generally precipitation amount shows a decreasing except winter season. Although there is no regular decreasing or increasing trend throughout projection period, it attracts more attention irregularity of precipitation regime.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• RCP,HadGEM2-ES,MPI-ESM-MR,GFDL-ESM2M,RegCM

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