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What makes democracy possible? Transitions in Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 167 - 206, 06.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.969305

Öz

This article studies Egyptian and Tunisian transitions by investigating the effect of two factors, namely electoral system choice and the presence of competitive opposition
parties. It suggests that, between 2011 and 2015, the electoral system choice and the presence of competitive political parties contributed to the transition to democracy in
Tunisia while the same two factors were causes of the failed transition in Egypt. It concludes by arguing that during transitional phases, electoral system choice and
presence of competitive political parties help institutionalization of normal, limited political uncertainty in a polity. Accordingly, these two factors compel cooperation and
negotiation between different political actors, which in turn help democracy survive transitions. 

Destekleyen Kurum

None

Kaynakça

  • Albrecht, Holger, “How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism? Lessons from Egypt”, Democratization 12, no.3 (2005), 378-397.
  • Baranzy Zoltan, “Comparing Arab revolts: the Role of Military”. Journal of Democracy 22, no.4 (2011): 24-35
  • Beinin, Joel, Workers and Thieves: Labor Movements and Popular Uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. (Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2016).
  • Boubakri, Amor, “Inclusiveness Policies in the Transitional Elections in Tunisia”, In Raul Cordenillo (eds.) Improving Electoral Practices: Case Studies and Practical Approaches (pp. 141-161). (Stockholm, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2015).
  • Burnell, Peter and André Gerrits, “Promoting Party Politics in Emerging Democracies”, Democratization, 17, no.6 (2010): 1065-1084
  • Cambanis, Thanassis, Once Upon a Revolution: An Egyptian Story. (New York, Simon & Schuster, 2015)
  • Carey, John, “Electoral Formula and Tunisian Constituent Assembly”, Accessed on May 3, 2021, http://sites.dartmouth.edu/jcarey/files/2013/02/Tunisia-Electoral-Formula-Carey-May-2013-reduced.pdf
  • Carey, John M., Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds, "Institutions as Causes and Effects: North African Electoral Systems During the Arab Spring”, HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-042 (2015).
  • Collombier, Virginie, “Politics Without Parties: Political Change and Democracy Building in Egypt Before and After the Revolution”, EUI Working Papers MWP 2013/ 35 (2013).
  • Corrales, Javier, “Strong Societies, Weak Parties: Regime Change in Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and Today”, Latin American Politics and Society, 43 no.2 (2001): 81-114.
  • Dahl, Robert, Political Oppositions in Western Democracies. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1966)
  • Dawoud, Khaled, “Egypt’s Elections Law: A Setback for Democracy”, Atlantic Council, Accessed December 10, 2020, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/egypt-s-parliamentary-elections-law-a-setback-for-democracy.
  • Democracy Reporting International, Assessment of the Electoral Framework: The Arab Republic of Egypt. Accessed May 3, 2021, http://democracy-reporting.org/files/dri_egypt.pdf
  • Esen, Berk and Sebnem Gumuscu, “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey”, Third World Quarterly, 37, no.9 (2013): 1581-1606.
  • Faris, David, “Constituting Institutions: Electoral System in Egypt”, Middle East Policy 19, no.1 (2012): 140-154.
  • Freedom House. Nations in Transit: the Anti-democratic Turn. Accessed May13, 2021, https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/NIT_2021_final_042321.pdf
  • Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2021: Tunisia. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2021
  • Gallagher, Michael, “Proportionality, Disproportionality, and Electoral Systems”, Electoral Studies 10, no.1 (1991): 33-51.
  • Garritzman, Julian, “How Much Power do Oppositions Have? Comparing the Opportunity Structures of Parliamentary Oppositions in 21 Democracies”, The Journal of Legislative Studies 23, no.1 (2017): 1-30.
  • Gelvin, James, The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know, (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2015).
  • Gumuscu, Sebnem, “The Emerging Predominant Party System in Turkey”, Government and Opposition 48, no.2 (2013): 223-244.
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond, “Political Parties in MENA: Their Functions and Development”, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 44, no.2 (2017): 159-175.
  • Ishiyama, John, Comparative Politics: Principles of Democracy and Democratization. (West Sussex: Blackwell Publishing, 2012).
  • Kienle, Eberhard. “Egypt without Mubarak, Tunisia after Bin Ali: Theory, History, and the ‘Arab Spring’”. Economy and Society 41, no.4 (2012): 532-557.
  • Kirdis, Esen, “Wolves in Sheep Clothing or Victims of Times? Discussing the Immoderation of Incumbent Islamic Parties in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia”, Democratization 25, no.5 (2018): 901-918.
  • Landolt, Laura, and Paul Kubicek, “Opportunities and Constraints: Comparing Tunisia and Egypt to the Colored Revolutions”, Democratization 21, no.6 (2014): 984-1006.
  • Langohr, Vickie, “Too Much Civil Society, Too Little Politics: Egypt and Liberalizing Arab Regimes”, Comparative Politics 36, no.2 (2004): 181-204.
  • Levitsky, Steven and Maxwell Cameron, “Democracy Without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru”, Latin American Politics and Society 45, no.3 (2003): 1-33. Lewis, Arthur, Politics in West Africa. (London, George Allen and Unwin, 1965)
  • Lijphart, Arend, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974)
  • Lijphart, Arend, Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in 36 Countries. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1999)
  • Mainwaring, Scott, “Political Parties and Democratization in Brazil and the Southern Cone”, Comparative Politics 21, no.1 (1988): 91-120.
  • Marsot, Afaf Lutfi Al-Sayyid Mısır Tarihi: Arapların Fethinden Bugüne, (İstanbul, Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları, 2007).
  • Maktuf, Lutfi, Tunus’u Kurtarmak: Çalınan Arap Baharı, (İstanbul, Modus Kitap, 2013)
  • Miller, Laurel, Jeffrey Martini, Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie Taylor, and Tewodaj Mengistu, Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe. (Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2012).
  • Morsy, Ahmed, “Individuals before Parties in Egypt’s Elections”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Accessed April 22, 2021, http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/?fa=56157.
  • Morsy. Ahmed, “The Egyptian Parliamentary Elections 101”. Middle East Institute, Accessed December 9, 2020, http://www.mei.edu/content/article/egyptian-parliamentary-elections-101
  • Norris, Pippa, “Choosing Electoral Systems: Proportional, Majoritarian, and Mixed Systems”, International Political Science Review 18, no.3 (1997): 297-312
  • Norris, Pippa, Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008)
  • Osman, Tarek, Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to the Muslim Brotherhood. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 2013).
  • Pettitt, Robin, Contemporary Party Politics, (Hampshire, Palgrave Macmillan, 2014)
  • Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991)..
  • Reilly, Benjamin, Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management. (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001).
  • Roll, Stephan “Managing Change: How Egypt’s Military Leadership Shaped the Transformation”, Mediterranean Politics 21, no.1 (2016): 23-43.
  • Schattschneider, Eric, Party Government. (New York, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1942)
  • Schmitter, Philippe, and Terry Lynn Karl, “What Democracy is… And is not”, Journal of Democracy 2, no. 3 (1991): 75-88.
  • Shin, Jae Hyeok, “The Choice of Electoral Systems in New Democracies: A Case Study of South Korea in 1988”, Democratization 18, no.6 (2011): 1246-1269.
  • Stacher, Joshua, “Fragmenting States, New Regimes: Militarized State Violence and Transition in the Middle East”, Democratization 22, no.2 (2015): 259-275.
  • Szmolka, Inmaculada. The Fifth Wave of Democratization? Processes of Political Change in the Arab World from a Comparative Perspective. Accessed February 19, 2021, http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_8229.pdf
  • Szmolka, Inmaculada, “Political Change in North Africa and the Arab Middle East: Constitutional Reforms and Electoral Processes”, Arab Studies Quarterly 36, no.2 (2014): 128-148.
  • Tavana, Daniel, Consensus after Conflict: Electoral System Choice in Revolutionary Egypt. Accessed on June 13, 2021, https://www.innovations.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2296222.pdf
  • The Carter Center, Final Report of the Carter Center Mission to Witness the 2011–2012 Parliamentary Elections in Egypt. Accessed on March 5, 2021, http://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/election_reports/egypt-2011-2012-final-rpt.pdf
  • Trager, Eric, Egypt's New Elections Laws: Another Democratic Setback. Accessed on March 7, 2021, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypts-new-elections-laws-another-democratic-setback. UNDP, Arab Human Development Report: Towards Freedom in the Arab World, Accessed March 20, 2021, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/rbas_ahdr2004_en.pdf
  • Wickham, Carrie Rosefsky, The Muslim Brotherhood: Evolution of an Islamist Movement. (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2013).
  • Wolf, Anne, “Power Shift in Tunisia: Electoral Success of Secular Parties Might Deepen Polarization”, SWP Comments 54, Accessed April 17, 2021, http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2014C54_wolf.pdf.

What makes democracy possible? Transitions in Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 167 - 206, 06.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.969305

Öz

This article studies Egyptian and Tunisian transitions by investigating the effect of two factors; namely electoral system choice and the presence of competitive opposition parties. It suggests that electoral system choice and the presence of competitive political parties contributed to the transition to democracy in Tunisia while the same two factors were causes of the failed transition in Egypt. It concludes by arguing that during transitional phases, electoral system choice and presence of competitive political parties help institutionalization of normal, limited political uncertainty in a polity. Accordingly, these two factors compel cooperation and negotiation between different political actors, which in turn help democracy to survive transitions.

Kaynakça

  • Albrecht, Holger, “How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism? Lessons from Egypt”, Democratization 12, no.3 (2005), 378-397.
  • Baranzy Zoltan, “Comparing Arab revolts: the Role of Military”. Journal of Democracy 22, no.4 (2011): 24-35
  • Beinin, Joel, Workers and Thieves: Labor Movements and Popular Uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. (Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2016).
  • Boubakri, Amor, “Inclusiveness Policies in the Transitional Elections in Tunisia”, In Raul Cordenillo (eds.) Improving Electoral Practices: Case Studies and Practical Approaches (pp. 141-161). (Stockholm, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2015).
  • Burnell, Peter and André Gerrits, “Promoting Party Politics in Emerging Democracies”, Democratization, 17, no.6 (2010): 1065-1084
  • Cambanis, Thanassis, Once Upon a Revolution: An Egyptian Story. (New York, Simon & Schuster, 2015)
  • Carey, John, “Electoral Formula and Tunisian Constituent Assembly”, Accessed on May 3, 2021, http://sites.dartmouth.edu/jcarey/files/2013/02/Tunisia-Electoral-Formula-Carey-May-2013-reduced.pdf
  • Carey, John M., Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds, "Institutions as Causes and Effects: North African Electoral Systems During the Arab Spring”, HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-042 (2015).
  • Collombier, Virginie, “Politics Without Parties: Political Change and Democracy Building in Egypt Before and After the Revolution”, EUI Working Papers MWP 2013/ 35 (2013).
  • Corrales, Javier, “Strong Societies, Weak Parties: Regime Change in Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and Today”, Latin American Politics and Society, 43 no.2 (2001): 81-114.
  • Dahl, Robert, Political Oppositions in Western Democracies. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1966)
  • Dawoud, Khaled, “Egypt’s Elections Law: A Setback for Democracy”, Atlantic Council, Accessed December 10, 2020, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/egypt-s-parliamentary-elections-law-a-setback-for-democracy.
  • Democracy Reporting International, Assessment of the Electoral Framework: The Arab Republic of Egypt. Accessed May 3, 2021, http://democracy-reporting.org/files/dri_egypt.pdf
  • Esen, Berk and Sebnem Gumuscu, “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey”, Third World Quarterly, 37, no.9 (2013): 1581-1606.
  • Faris, David, “Constituting Institutions: Electoral System in Egypt”, Middle East Policy 19, no.1 (2012): 140-154.
  • Freedom House. Nations in Transit: the Anti-democratic Turn. Accessed May13, 2021, https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/NIT_2021_final_042321.pdf
  • Freedom House. Freedom in the World 2021: Tunisia. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/country/tunisia/freedom-world/2021
  • Gallagher, Michael, “Proportionality, Disproportionality, and Electoral Systems”, Electoral Studies 10, no.1 (1991): 33-51.
  • Garritzman, Julian, “How Much Power do Oppositions Have? Comparing the Opportunity Structures of Parliamentary Oppositions in 21 Democracies”, The Journal of Legislative Studies 23, no.1 (2017): 1-30.
  • Gelvin, James, The Arab Uprisings: What Everyone Needs to Know, (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2015).
  • Gumuscu, Sebnem, “The Emerging Predominant Party System in Turkey”, Government and Opposition 48, no.2 (2013): 223-244.
  • Hinnebusch, Raymond, “Political Parties in MENA: Their Functions and Development”, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 44, no.2 (2017): 159-175.
  • Ishiyama, John, Comparative Politics: Principles of Democracy and Democratization. (West Sussex: Blackwell Publishing, 2012).
  • Kienle, Eberhard. “Egypt without Mubarak, Tunisia after Bin Ali: Theory, History, and the ‘Arab Spring’”. Economy and Society 41, no.4 (2012): 532-557.
  • Kirdis, Esen, “Wolves in Sheep Clothing or Victims of Times? Discussing the Immoderation of Incumbent Islamic Parties in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia”, Democratization 25, no.5 (2018): 901-918.
  • Landolt, Laura, and Paul Kubicek, “Opportunities and Constraints: Comparing Tunisia and Egypt to the Colored Revolutions”, Democratization 21, no.6 (2014): 984-1006.
  • Langohr, Vickie, “Too Much Civil Society, Too Little Politics: Egypt and Liberalizing Arab Regimes”, Comparative Politics 36, no.2 (2004): 181-204.
  • Levitsky, Steven and Maxwell Cameron, “Democracy Without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori’s Peru”, Latin American Politics and Society 45, no.3 (2003): 1-33. Lewis, Arthur, Politics in West Africa. (London, George Allen and Unwin, 1965)
  • Lijphart, Arend, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974)
  • Lijphart, Arend, Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in 36 Countries. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1999)
  • Mainwaring, Scott, “Political Parties and Democratization in Brazil and the Southern Cone”, Comparative Politics 21, no.1 (1988): 91-120.
  • Marsot, Afaf Lutfi Al-Sayyid Mısır Tarihi: Arapların Fethinden Bugüne, (İstanbul, Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları, 2007).
  • Maktuf, Lutfi, Tunus’u Kurtarmak: Çalınan Arap Baharı, (İstanbul, Modus Kitap, 2013)
  • Miller, Laurel, Jeffrey Martini, Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie Taylor, and Tewodaj Mengistu, Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe. (Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2012).
  • Morsy, Ahmed, “Individuals before Parties in Egypt’s Elections”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Accessed April 22, 2021, http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/?fa=56157.
  • Morsy. Ahmed, “The Egyptian Parliamentary Elections 101”. Middle East Institute, Accessed December 9, 2020, http://www.mei.edu/content/article/egyptian-parliamentary-elections-101
  • Norris, Pippa, “Choosing Electoral Systems: Proportional, Majoritarian, and Mixed Systems”, International Political Science Review 18, no.3 (1997): 297-312
  • Norris, Pippa, Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008)
  • Osman, Tarek, Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to the Muslim Brotherhood. (New Haven, Yale University Press, 2013).
  • Pettitt, Robin, Contemporary Party Politics, (Hampshire, Palgrave Macmillan, 2014)
  • Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991)..
  • Reilly, Benjamin, Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management. (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001).
  • Roll, Stephan “Managing Change: How Egypt’s Military Leadership Shaped the Transformation”, Mediterranean Politics 21, no.1 (2016): 23-43.
  • Schattschneider, Eric, Party Government. (New York, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1942)
  • Schmitter, Philippe, and Terry Lynn Karl, “What Democracy is… And is not”, Journal of Democracy 2, no. 3 (1991): 75-88.
  • Shin, Jae Hyeok, “The Choice of Electoral Systems in New Democracies: A Case Study of South Korea in 1988”, Democratization 18, no.6 (2011): 1246-1269.
  • Stacher, Joshua, “Fragmenting States, New Regimes: Militarized State Violence and Transition in the Middle East”, Democratization 22, no.2 (2015): 259-275.
  • Szmolka, Inmaculada. The Fifth Wave of Democratization? Processes of Political Change in the Arab World from a Comparative Perspective. Accessed February 19, 2021, http://paperroom.ipsa.org/papers/paper_8229.pdf
  • Szmolka, Inmaculada, “Political Change in North Africa and the Arab Middle East: Constitutional Reforms and Electoral Processes”, Arab Studies Quarterly 36, no.2 (2014): 128-148.
  • Tavana, Daniel, Consensus after Conflict: Electoral System Choice in Revolutionary Egypt. Accessed on June 13, 2021, https://www.innovations.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2296222.pdf
  • The Carter Center, Final Report of the Carter Center Mission to Witness the 2011–2012 Parliamentary Elections in Egypt. Accessed on March 5, 2021, http://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/election_reports/egypt-2011-2012-final-rpt.pdf
  • Trager, Eric, Egypt's New Elections Laws: Another Democratic Setback. Accessed on March 7, 2021, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypts-new-elections-laws-another-democratic-setback. UNDP, Arab Human Development Report: Towards Freedom in the Arab World, Accessed March 20, 2021, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/rbas_ahdr2004_en.pdf
  • Wickham, Carrie Rosefsky, The Muslim Brotherhood: Evolution of an Islamist Movement. (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2013).
  • Wolf, Anne, “Power Shift in Tunisia: Electoral Success of Secular Parties Might Deepen Polarization”, SWP Comments 54, Accessed April 17, 2021, http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/comments/2014C54_wolf.pdf.
Toplam 54 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Sahin 0000-0002-0815-9433

Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Ocak 2023
Kabul Tarihi 12 Mart 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Sahin, O. (2023). What makes democracy possible? Transitions in Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, 9(2), 167-206. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.969305

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