JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLER, PETROL FİYATI VE PAY SENEDİ PİYASASI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLER: PETROL İHRAÇ EDEN VE PETROL İTHAL EDEN ÜLKELERDEN KANITLAR

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 27 Sayı: Ek, 159 - 182, 19.06.2025

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.1421375

Öz

Bu çalışmada jeopolitik risk endeksi, petrol fiyatı ve en büyük beş petrol ihracatçısı (Suudi Arabistan, Kanada, Rusya, Amerika ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri) ve petrol ithalatçısı (Çin, Amerika, Hindistan, Güney Kore ve Japonya) ülkenin pay senedi piyasaları arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmektedir. Analiz için Ocak 1985-Ağustos 2023 arası dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılmaktadır. Toda Yamamoto (TY) nedensellik ve Fourier Toda Yamamoto (FTY) nedensellik testleri kullanıldığı çalışmada önemli sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Her iki nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgulara göre petrol ihraç eden ülkelerde pay senedi piyasasından petrol fiyatına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik varken, petrol ithal eden ülkelerde genel olarak finansal piyasalar ve petrol fiyatları arasında nedensellik bulunamamıştır. Bulgular, petrol ihracatçısı (Kanada ve ABD) ve petrol ithalatçısı (ABD, Güney Kore ve Japonya) ülkelerde jeopolitik risk endeksinden petrol fiyatına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğunu, dolayısıyla jeopolitik risklerin petrol fiyatları için öngörü bilgisi sunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bu bulgular yatırımcılar için çeşitlendirme fırsatları ve stratejik kararlar açısından da önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi , Petrol Fiyatı , Pay Senedi Piyasaları , Nedensellik

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, THE OIL PRICE AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM OIL EXPORTING AND IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Öz

This study examines the relationships between the Geopolitical Risk Index, the oil price and the stock markets of the five largest oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Canada, Russia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates) and oil importers (China, the United States, India, South Korea and Japan). The analysis uses monthly data for the period between January 1985 and August 2023. Significant results were obtained in the study using the Toda Yamamoto (TY) causality test and the Fourier Toda Yamamoto (FTY) causality test. According to the results of both causality tests, there is unidirectional causality from the stock market to the oil price in oil-exporting countries, while generally no causality was found between financial markets and oil prices in oil-importing countries. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from the geopolitical risk index to the oil price in oil-exporting (Canada and the US) and oil-importing (the US, South Korea and Japan) countries, and that geopolitical risks provide predictive information for oil prices. In addition, these findings provide important information for investors in terms of diversification opportunities and strategic decisions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical Risk Index , Oil Price , Stock Market , Causality

Kaynakça

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