GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDE DİJİTALLEŞMENİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Öz

İktisat yazınında teknolojik gelişme verimlilik artışı ve iktisadi büyüme için kritik öneme sahiptir. Son yıllarda dijitalleşme sektöründeki gelişmeler neticesinde teknolojik gelişmeler hızlanmış, verimlilik artışı yaşanmış ve dijitalleşme ekonomik büyümede önemli bir yer edinmiştir. Çalışmamızda da yüksek orta gelirli ve düşük orta gelirli gelişmekte olan ülkelerde dijitalleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, 1995-2020 zamana aralığında, incelenmiştir. 13 tane yüksek orta gelirli ülkenin ve 10 tane de düşük orta gelirli ülke için yapılan analiz sonuçları 8 tane, bir zamanlar orta veya düşük gelirli ülke kategorisinde olan ancak son yıllarda yüksek gelirli ülke grubunda yer alan ülke için yapılan analiz sonuçlarıyla karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu ülkeler seçilen değişkenlerle kişi başına düşen gelir arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Pedroni panel eşbütünleşme testiyle sınanmıştır. Dijitalleşmenin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, modellerdeki heterojenliği dikkate alan, Tam Uyumlaştırılmış En Küçük Kareler Yöntemiyle ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan Ortak Korelasyonlu Etkiler yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre dijitalleşme değişkeni olarak seçilen her 100 kişi başına düşen sabit telefon aboneliği, her 100 kişi başına düşen cep telefonu aboneliği ve internet kullanan kişilerin nüfusa oranı, her üç ülke grubu için uzun dönemde gelir üzerinde olumlu etkiye sahiptir. Yüksek gelir grubunda cep telefonu aboneliği; yüksek orta gelir ve düşük orta gelirli ülke gruplarında ise sabit telefon aboneliği en yüksek değere sahiptir. Yüksek orta gelirli ülke grubunda da internet değişkeninin katsayı değeri ikinci sırada, düşük orta gelirli ülke grubunda ise internet kullanımı üçüncü sırada ve negatif katsayıya sahiptir. Bu sonuçlara göre ülke gruplarının gelişmişlik derecesine göre BİT değişkenlerinin kişi başına düşen geliri etkileme derecesi değişmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Dijitalleşme
• Panel Veri Analizi

THE EFFECT OF DIGITALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

Abstract

In the economic literature, technological development is critical for productivity and economic growth. As a result of the developments in the digitalization sector in recent years, technological developments have accelerated, productivity and the importance of digitalization has increased for economic growth. In this paper, the impact of digitalization on economic growth in upper-middle income and lower-middle income developing countries is examined over the period 1995-2020. The results of the analysis for 13 upper- middle income countries and 10 lower middle-income countries are compared with the results of the analysis for 8 countries that were once upper middle-income or lower-middle income countries but have recently been included in the high-income country group. The long-run relationship between the selected variables and per capita income in these countries is tested with the Pedroni panel cointegration test. The impact of digitalization on growth is estimated using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares method, which takes into account heterogeneity in the models, and the Common Correlated Effects method, which takes into account cross-sectional dependence. According to the results, fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, mobile phone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants and the ratio of internet users to the population, which are selected as digitalization variables, have a positive effect on income in the long run for all three country groups. Mobile phone subscriptions are the highest in the high-income group, while fixed telephone subscriptions are the highest in the upper-middle income and lower-middle income country groups. In the high-middle income country group, the coefficient value of the internet variable ranks second, while in the lower-middle income country group, internet use ranks third and has a negative coefficient. These results indicate that the degree to which ICT variables affect per capita income varies according to the degree of development of country groups.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Digitalization
• Panel Data Analysis

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