BAYESIAN APPROACH IN MULTINOMIAL PROBIT MODEL: INVESTIGATION OF COOKING OIL CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, it was aimed to determine the factors effecting oil consumption in Turkey utilizing the TurkStat’s Household Budget Survey of 2009. Multinomial Probit model was fitted to the data, and model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood and bayesian approaches. While the significance and signs of parameters estimated by both approaches exhibited similarities, the magnitudes of parameter estimates are observed differently.

Keywords

• Households,Bayesian Approach,Multinomial Probit Model,Turkey

MULTİNOMİAL PROBİT MODELİNDE BAYES YAKLAŞIMI: TÜRKİYE’DE YAĞ TÜKETİM TERCİHİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Öz

Çalışmada Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun 2009 yılı Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi verilerinden yararlanılarak Türkiye’de yağ tüketim tercihlerini etkileyen etmenlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Dört yağ çeşidinin tercihine ilişkin olarak oluşturulan multinomial probit modelin parametre tahminleri en çok olabilirlik ve bayes yaklaşımları kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre, tahmin edilen parametrelerin anlamlılıkları ve işaretleri benzerlik göstermektedir. Bunun yanında, yöntemler arasındaki farklılıklardan kaynaklı olarak parametre tahminlerinin büyüklüklerinde değişiklik görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hanehalkı,Bayes Yaklaşımı,Multinomial Probit Model,Türkiye

Kaynakça

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