İNSAN SERMAYESI ILE KAYIT DIŞI EKONOMISI ARASINDAKI İLİŞKİ, EKONOMİK ÖZGÜRLÜĞÜN MODERATİF ETKİSİ

Abstract

Bu yazıda ekonomik özgürlük varlığında insan sermayesi ile kayıt dışı ekonomisi arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik analizi yapılmaktadır. 34 ülke örneklemi için 1999-2013 dönemi yıllık panel verileri toplanmıştır. Doğrusal statik ve dinamik panel veri tahmin edicilerinin sonuçları, ekonomik özgürlüğün anlamlı olmayan etkisine işaret etmektedir. ARDL çerçevesi, eğitimin sadece uzun vadede kayıt dışı ekonomisi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin, daha eğitimli işgücünün kayıt dışı ekonomik faaliyetlerden kaçınma eğilimine işaret ettiğini göstermektedir. Kısa süreli etki anlamlı bulunmamıştır. İnsan sermayesinin klasik zaman varyantı değişkenleri olduğu için bu sonuç beklendiktir, yani herhangi bir değişiklik daha uzun bir zaman süresi gerektirir. Genişletilmiş model, eğitimin uzun vadede önemli bir negatif etkisine işaret etmektedir. Ekonomik özgürlük hem kısa hem de uzun vadede anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Ancak, moderatör katsayısının, kısa vadede, ekonomik özgürlüğün kayıt dışı ekonomik aktiviteyi azaltma niyetinde daha eğitimli işgücünü desteklediğini gösterecek şekilde anlamlı ve pozitif olduğunu vurgulamak önemlidir. Dolayısıyla, bir politika uygulaması olarak, kayıt dışı ekonomisini azaltma eğiliminde olacak insan sermayesi işgücünü arttırmak için ekonomik özgürlüğe katkıda bulunmak gereklidir.

Keywords

• İnsan Sermayesi,Ekonomik özgürlük,Moderatör etkisi,Kayıt dışı ekonomisi

MODERATING EFFECT OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMAN CAPITAL AND SHADOW ECONOMY

Öz

The empirical analysis of the relationship between human capital and shadow economy in the presence of economic freedom is conducted in this paper. Annual panel data are collected in the period 1999-2013 for the sample of 34 countries. The results of linear static and dynamic panel data estimators suggest an impact of economic freedom that is not significant. ARDL framework suggests a significant negative impact of human capital on shadow economy only in the long-run indicating that more educated workforce tends to avoid informal economic activities. Short-run impact is not found to be significant. This result is expected since human capital is considered to be a classic time-variant covariate, i.e. any change requires longer time period. The extended model suggests a significant negative impact of human capital only in the long-run. Economic freedom is not found to be significant in both, short- and the long-run. However, it is important to emphasize that the coefficient with moderator is significant and positive in the short-run indicating that economic freedom supports more educated workforce in their intention to decrease informal economic activity. Hence, as a policy implication there is a necessity to contribute to economic freedom in order to increase the human capital of workforce who will tend to decrease shadow economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human capital,Economic freedom,Moderating effect,Shadow economy

Kaynakça

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