Libya’nın ‘Kalıcı Belirsizliği’: Birçok Yanlıştan Tek Doğru ve Açmazlardan Bir Sonuç Çıkartmak?

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 1 - 20, 27.03.2021

Murat Aslan

Öz

Halife Hafter’in 4 Nisan 2019 tarihinde Ulusal Mutabakat Hükümeti’ni (UMH) devirmek üzere başlatmış olduğu saldırı, Türkiye’nin UMH’ye verdiği destek sonrası siyasi bir sürece indirgenmiştir. Ancak bu siyasi süreci, sahadaki görünür aktörlerden ziyade uluslararası toplum şekillendirmektedir. Fakat ateşkeste ve siyasi sürecin devlet inşasına dönüştürülmesinde Libya halkının Trablus ve Bingazi’de başlattığı sokak gösterileri etkili olmuştur. Öte yandan otoriter rejim – bölünme – beka – devlet inşası doğrusalında kalıcı belirsizlikle nitelendirilecek güven(siz)lik ortamı, düzen tesis etmenin olabilirliğini tartışılır hale getirmektedir. Ancak Libya halkının, 2011 yılında başlatmış olduğu devrim, ‘an’ı şekillendirebilecek niteliktedir. Bu doğrultuda, araştırma öncelikle çatışma ortamının dinamiklerini ve Türkiye’nin UMH lehine tavır alması gibi dönüm noktalarını ele almaktadır. Uluslararası toplumun, Türkiye ve Rusya’nın elde ettiği inisiyatifi dizginlemek uğruna ateşkes ve siyasi süreç gayretleri incelenmekte ve ancak Libya halkının gösterileri sonrasında yerel aktörlerin tavır değişikliği tercihinde bulunduğu görülmektedir. Ulaşılan sonuç, çatışma ortamı ve devlet inşası düzlemindeki seçenekleri ‘kalıcı belirsizlikten’ çıkartacak sürecin ancak Libya halkı tarafından tayin edileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Libya, Halife Hafter, Ulusal Mutabakat Hükümeti, Kalıcı Belirsizlik

Kaynakça

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