Acımasız Zafer: EuroLeague'de 1 ve 2 Sayı ile Sonuçlanan Basketbol Maçlarında Kazanma ve Kaybetmeyi Etkileyen Oyunla İlgili Özelliklerin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Bir basketbol maçını kazanmak için oyunun son saniyesine kadar mücadele etmek gerekir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1 ve 2 sayı farkla sonuçlanan erkek basketbol maçlarında kazanmayı veya kaybetmeyi doğrudan etkileyen oyunla ilgili özellikleri belirlemektir. Veriler, 2001-2023 yılları arasında Avrupa Basketbol Ligi'nde (Euroleague) oynanan ve 22 yılı kapsayan 664 maçtan oluşmaktadır ve bu tür maçların en önemli özelliklerini bulmak için lojistik regresyon analizi ile test edilmiştir. 1 sayı fark ile biten maçlarda daha az basketbol karakteristik özelliğinin (top kaybından sayı p:0.001/β -0.114, fastbreak sayıları p:0.000/β -0.214, yapılan fauller p:0.002/β 0.081, alınan fauller p:0.007/β -0.068, benchten gelen sayılar p:0.014/β -0.054) etkili olduğu tespit edilirken, 2 sayı fark ile biten maçlarda daha fazla özellik (top kaybından sayı p:0. 000/β -0.205, 2 saha sayısı yüzdesi p:0.000/β -0.081, 3 saha sayısı yüzdesi p:0.000/β -0.049, hücum ribauntları p:0.017/β -0.070, savunma ribauntları p:0. 000/β -0.135, top çalma p:0.002/β -0.082, top kaybı p:0.000/β -0.107, fastbreak sayıları p:0.000/β 0.193, asist p:0.024/β 0.075) öne çıkmıştır. Bir sayı farkla kazanılan maçlarda, ev sahibi takımlar için daha fazla fastbreak sayısı ve yapılan/alınan fauller maçın kazanılmasında en önemli etkiye sahipken, deplasman takımları için 3 sayılık atış sayısı, top kaybından elde edilen sayılar, benchten gelen oyuncuların aldığı sayılar ve fastbreak sayıları maçın kazanılmasında en önemli etkiye sahip olmuştur. Ayrıca 2 sayı farkla kazanılan maçlarda, daha fazla 2 sayılık atışlar, hücum/defans ribauntları ve top çalma özelliklerinin etkili olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Oyun Karakteristikleri
• Euro Lig
• Kaybeden
• Kazanan
• Puan Farkı

Ruthless Victory: Determining the Game-Related Characteristics That Affect Winning and Losing in EuroLeague Basketball Games Decided by 1 and 2 Points

Öz

To win a basketball game, it is necessary to fight until the last second of the game. This study aimed to determine the game-related characteristics that directly affect winning or losing in men’s basketball games decided by 1 and 2 points. The data consisted of 664 games played in the European Basketball League (Euroleague) between 2001 and 2023, covering 22 years and were tested with logistic regression analysis to find the most significant characteristics of such games. In the games decided by 1 point, fewer characteristics (points off turnover p:0.001/β -0.114, fastbreak points p:0.000/β -0.214, fouls committed p:0.002/β 0.081, fouls received p:0.007/β -0.068, points by bench p:0.014/β -0.054) were identified, while in those decided by 2 points, more characteristics (points off turnovers p:0.000/β -0.205, 2 field points percents p:0.000/β -0.081, 3 field points percents p:0.000/β -0.049, rebounds offensive p:0.017/β -0.070, rebounds defensive p:0.000/β -0.135, steals p:0.002/β -0.082, turnovers p:0.000/β -0.107, fastbreak points p:0.000/β 0.193, assists p:0.024/β 0.075) were prominent. In the games won by 1 point, more fastbreak points and fouls committed/received for home teams had the most significant impact on winning the game, while the visitors teams 3 Field points, points off turnover, points by bench and fastbreak points had the most significant impact on winning the game. Also in the games won by 2 point, more 2 field points, rebounds offensive/defensive, steals, turnovers, fastbreak points and points off turnovers for home teams had the most significant impact on winning the game, while the visitors teams 2 field points, 3 field points, rebounds defensive, assists, turnovers, fastbreak points and points off turnover had the most significant impact on winning the game. This study has helped us understand how basketball teams win games in the EuroLeague. It was observed that in closely contested games with small margins, the required game-related characteristics varied significantly for all winning teams. While there were fewer distinguishing parameters in games decided by a 1-point difference, the number of parameters increased in games decided by a 2-point difference.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• EuroLeague
• game-related characteristics
• loser
• winner
• points difference

Kaynakça

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