Establishment of Confidence Intervals for Average Vehicle Speeds

Öz

Accurate forecasting of the average speed of vehicles is important for early detection of traffic congestion and density, as well as for the correct reporting of the green wave mode. For this purpose, to evaluate the forecasting of traffic indicators using the artificial intelligence method a confidence interval was established on the example of the city of Baku, the capital of the Republic of Azerbaijan. However, this confidence interval includes forecasts for the next few days based on observations of existing roads, not of planned and reconstructed roads. During the preparation of the report, the first 21 days of April 2019 were selected and based on the obtained data, the objective numerical assessment of the quantitative anticipation for the number of hours in a day, standardized deviation's objective statistical approximation, the quantile of the Student’s distribution, the lower limit, the upper limit and the values of the difference between them were determined, as well as the degree of freedom and the computed confidence interval. As a result of the reports, one confidence interval is given for each hour of the day, in which the indicator falls into this interval with 95% of the following days. It is also possible to determine the recommended speed limit, which is the most important part of the green wave mode, with the help of the mentioned prediction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• confidence interval
• average speed of vehicles
• traffic flow
• green wave
• recommended speed of movement
• road traffic management

Ortalama Araç Hızları İçin Güven Aralıklarının Oluşturulması

Öz

Araçların ortalama hızlarının doğru tahmin edilmesi trafik sıkışıklığının ve yoğunluğunun erken tespiti ve aynı zamanda yeşil dalga modunun doğru raporlanması için önemlidir. Bu amaçla yapay zeka yöntemi kullanılarak trafik göstergelerinin tahminini değerlendirmek için Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti'nin başkenti Bakü şehri örneğinde bir güven aralığı oluşturulmuştur. Ancak bu güven aralığı, planlanan ve yeniden yapılan yollara değil, mevcut yollara ilişkin gözlemlere dayalı olarak önümüzdeki birkaç gün için tahminleri içerir. Raporun hazırlanması sırasında 2019 Nisan ayının ilk 21 günü seçilmiş ve elde edilen verilere göre günün saatlerine ilişkin matematiksel beklenti için yansız istatistiksel tahmin, standart sapma için yansız istatistiksel tahmin, Student dağılımı, alt sınır, üst sınır ve aralarındaki farkın değerleri belirlenmiş, ayrıca serbestlik derecesi ve güven aralığı hesaplanmıştır. Raporlamalar sonucunda günün her saati için bu güven aralığı verilir ve gösterge takip eden günlerin %95'i ile bu aralığa düşer. Bahsi geçen tahmin yardımıyla yeşil dalga modunun en önemli parçası olan tavsiye edilen hız limitini belirlemek de mümkün olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : güven aralığı
• araçların ortalama hızı
• trafik akışı
• yeşil dalga
• önerilen hareket hızı
• karayolu trafik yönetimi

Kaynakça

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