Makine Öğrenmesi Algoritmalarını Kullanılarak Pandemi Şartları Altında Trafik Kazalarının Analizi

Öz

2019 yılında ortaya çıkan COVID-19 pandemisi, ruhsal, psikolojik, sosyal, ekonomik, sağlık ve ulaşım olmak üzere hayatın tüm alanlarına etki ettiği gözlemlenmiştir. COVID-19 ‘dan kaynaklı pandemi süreci birçok olumsuz sonuçlarına rağmen, bazı olumlu sonuçlar da doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmada, pandemi sürecinin olumlu sonuçlarından biri detaylı olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışma, Türkiye’de Zonguldak ili de dahil olmak üzere tüm büyükşehirleri kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışma ile, COVID-19 karantinalarının 2012-2019 yılları arasında gerçekleşen ölümlü ve yaralanmalı trafik kazaları üzerindeki etkisi, Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) algoritması kullanılarak detaylı olarak araştırılmıştır. Google Colab platformunda Python programlama dilinde makine öğrenmesi kullanılarak doğrusal olmayan regresyon analizleri yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda 2020 yılı için tahmini kaza sayısı elde edilmiş ve bu sayı 2020 yılında büyükşehirlerde ve Zonguldak'ta meydana gelen gerçek ölümlü ve yaralanmalı kaza verileri ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu analiz, COVID-19 karantinalarının Zonguldak, Diyarbakır ve Ordu illeri hariç tüm büyükşehirlerde trafik kazalarında azalmaya neden olduğunu göstermiştir. Makine öğrenimi algoritmaları ile 2020 yılı için büyükşehirlerde tahmin edilen trafik kaza sayılarının, 2020 yılında gerçekleşen trafik kaza sayılarına göre %18,3 oranında daha yüksek olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Dolayısıyla Makine öğrenmesi ile doğru tahminler yapılabilse de deprem, savaş ve pandemi gibi olağanüstü durumlarda hata payı olabileceği gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karantina
• Trafik kazaları
• Kaza Tahmin Modeli
• Makine Öğrenmesi
• Extreme Gradient Boost

Analysis Of Traffic Accidents Using Machine Learning Under Pandemic Conditions

Öz

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in 2019 affected all aspects of life, including spiritual, psychological, social, economic, health and transportation aspects. Despite its negative consequences, however, the COVID-19 pandemic also produced some positive results. This study investigated the effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on killed-and-injured traffic accidents in metropolitan cities and Zonguldak Province in Turkey from 2012–2019 using the Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) algorithm. Nonlinear regression analyses were performed using machine learning in Python programming language on the Google Colab platform. The analysis provided an estimated number of accidents for 2020, which was compared with the real killed-and-injured accidents data from metropolitan cities and in Zonguldak in 2020. The comparison showed that COVID-19 lockdowns caused a decrease in traffic accidents in metropolitan cities and Zonguldak Province, except in Diyarbakır and Ordu. It has been revealed that the number of traffic accidents predicted by machine learning algorithms in metropolitan areas for 2020 is 18.3% higher than the number of traffic accidents in 2020. Therefore, although accurate predictions can be made with machine learning, it has been observed that there may be a margin of error in extraordinary situations such as earthquakes, wars and pandemics.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Lockdown
• Traffic accidents
• Accident prediction model
• Machine learning
• Extreme gradient boost

Kaynakça

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