Trafik Birimlerinin Lokasyonlara Optimal Dağılımı İçin Bir Matematiksel Model Önerisi: CRITIC Tabanlı Eğri Tahminleri (CBCE)

Öz

Trafik denetim birimlerinin varlığı, trafik kazalarının azaltılmasında önemli bir faktör olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu nedenle, trafik birimlerinin optimal dağılımı, kaynakların verimli kullanımı, kazaların azaltılması ve yol güvenliğinin artırılması açısından kritik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, bölgeler arasında trafik birimlerinin optimal dağılımını sağlamak için CRITIC Tabanlı Eğri Tahmini (CBCE) adı verilen matematiksel bir yöntem önerilmiştir. Yöntemin uygulanabilirliğini sağlamak amacıyla, trafik kazalarını etkileyen faktörler (bağımsız değişkenler) trafik uzmanlarının görüşleri ve literatür taraması doğrultusunda belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada bölgelerin trafik ile ilgili sayısal değerleri hipotetik örneklemlere dayanmaktadır. Bu faktörlere ait nicel değerler iki bölge için atanmış ve bir karar matrisi oluşturulmuştur. Belirlenen faktörlerin ağırlıkları CRITIC yöntemi kullanılarak hesaplanmış ve bu faktörlerin trafik kazaları üzerindeki etkileri Eğri Tahmini yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Bu analizlerin sonucunda, bölgeler için optimal trafik birimi tahsis oranları belirlenmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, önerilen yöntemin duyarlılık analizlerinde ideal sonuçlar verdiğini, karşılaştırmalı analizlerde kararlı ve güvenilir olduğunu ve simülasyon analizlerinde sağlam ve tutarlı çıktılar sunduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada önerilen yöntemin hem kamu hem de özel sektör tarafından trafik stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi açısından faydalı olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trafik birimleri
• CRITIC
• CRITIC Tabanlı Eğri Tahmini
• Optimal Dağılım Oranı

A Mathematical Model Proposal for The Optimal Distribution of Traffic Units to Locations: CRITIC-Based Curve Estimations (CBCE)

Öz

The presence of traffic enforcement units is widely recognized as a critical factor in reducing traffic accidents. Therefore, the optimal allocation of these units holds substantial importance for ensuring the efficient use of resources, minimizing accident rates, and enhancing overall road safety. In this study, a mathematical method called the CRITIC-Based Curve Estimation (CBCE) approach is proposed to achieve the optimal distribution of traffic units across regions. To ensure the applicability of the proposed model, the factors influencing traffic accidents (independent variables) were identified based on both expert opinions and an extensive review of the relevant literature. The numerical data representing regional traffic characteristics were constructed using hypothetical samples. Quantitative values for these factors were assigned for two regions, and a decision matrix was developed accordingly. The weights of the identified factors were calculated using the CRITIC method, while their effects on traffic accidents were analyzed through the Curve Estimation technique. As a result of these analyses, optimal allocation ratios for traffic enforcement units across regions were determined. Empirical findings indicate that the proposed method yields ideal results in sensitivity analyses, demonstrates stability and reliability in comparative evaluations, and produces robust and consistent outputs in simulation-based tests. The proposed approach is expected to provide valuable insights for both the public and private sectors in developing effective traffic management and safety strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Traffic units
• CRITIC
• CRITIC-based Curve Estimation
• Optimal Distribution Ratio

Kaynakça

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