Prioritization of Flood Susceptibility within the Sub-Basin of the Dalaman Stream Basin Using Morphometric Analysis Methods

Öz

In recent years, systematic approaches incorporating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing techniques, morphometric analyses, artificial intelligence methods, and the integration of statistical data have been used in sensitivity analyses of floods, which have increased in frequency and impact worldwide. In this study, flood susceptibility prioritization was modelled using different geostatistical methods based on the results of morphometric analyses conducted on the eight sub-basins that make up the Dalaman Stream Basin. First, the results of the morphometric analyses of the sub-basins were calculated using 15 different indices in terms of linear, areal and relief characteristics. The obtained morphometric data were then analysed using the Pearson Correlation coefficient. Using the quantitative data obtained, the Dalaman Stream Basin was analysed in terms of flood susceptibility level and prioritization using two different models: the flood ranking method and the Normalised Morphometric Flood Index (NMFI) method. The analysis results revealed that the sub-basins located in the upper reaches of the basin (basins 6, 7, and 8) have a higher flood susceptibility. According to the morphometric ranking method, three sub-basins have a high level of flood susceptibility, while five sub-basins have a high level of flood susceptibility according to the NFMI. The flood sensitivity results obtained from morphometric analyses using 23 flood data points previously recorded in the Dalaman Stream basin were compared. According to the comparison results, it was determined that 64% of past floods occurred in sub-basins 6, 7 and 8, which are particularly prioritized and have high flood susceptibility.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Morphometric Analysis
• Flood Susceptibility
• GIS
• Prioritization
• Dalaman Stream Basin.

Dalaman Çayı Havzası’nın Morfometrik Analiz Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Alt Havza Kapsamında Taşkın Duyarlılık Önceliklendirmesi

Öz

Dünyada son yıllarda frekansı ve etkisi artan taşkınların duyarlılık analizlerinde Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS), Uzaktan Algılama teknikleri, morfometrik analizler, yapay zeka yöntemleri ve istatistiki verilerin entegrasyonunu içeren sistematikler kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada da Dalaman Çayı1 Havzası’nı oluşturan 8 alt havza kapsamında morfometrik analiz sonuçlarının farklı jeo-istatistiki yöntemler kullanılarak taşkın duyarlılık önceliklendirmesi modellenmiştir. Araştırmada ilk olarak çizgisel, alansal ve rölyef kapsamında 15 farklı indis ile alt havzaların morfometrik analiz sonuçları hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra elde edilen morfometrik veriler Pearson Korelasyon katsayısı ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen kantitatif verilerle taşkın sıralama yöntemi ve Normalleştirilmiş Morfometrik Taşkın İndisi (NMFI) yöntemi ile 2 farklı model olarak taşkın duyarlılık düzeyi ve önceliklendirmesi açısından Dalaman Çayı Havzası analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları özellikle havzanın yukarı çığırında yer alan alt havzaların (6, 7 ve 8 no’lu havzalar) taşkın duyarlılığının daha yüksek olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Morfometrik sıralama yöntemine göre 3 alt havza, NFMI’ye göre 5 alt havza yüksek düzeyde taşkın duyarlılığına sahiptir. Dalaman Çayı havzasında daha önce meydana gelmiş 23 taşkın verisi ile morfometrik analizlerle oluşturulan taşkın duyarlılık sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. Karşılaştırma sonucuna göre özellikle önceliklendirmede ilk sırada yer alan ve yüksek taşkın duyarlılığına sahip 6, 7 ve 8 numaralı alt havzalarda geçmiş taşkınların %64’ünün gerçekleştiği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Morfometrik Analiz
• Taşkın Duyarlılığı
• CBS
• Önceliklendirme
• Dalaman Çayı Havzası

Kaynakça

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