Research Article

Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh

Volume: 8 July 3, 2026

Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh

Abstract

Urbanization, land use change, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects are critical for sustainable planning in rapidly growing coastal cities. Rapid urban expansion in Bangladesh has significantly altered land cover patterns, intensifying environmental and thermal stress in both urban and coastal regions. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and UHI in Khulna City Corporation (KCC), southwestern Bangladesh, from 1994 to 2024, with projections to 2044, using integrated geospatial and socio-perceptual approaches. Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI/TIRS imagery were analyzed using Maximum Likelihood Classification, Land Surface Temperature (LST) retrieval, and spatial statistics including Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis. Future LULC and UHI patterns were projected using a CA–Markov chain model. In addition, a structured survey of 150 residents was conducted to assess thermal perception, health impacts, and adaptive responses. Results show substantial urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 21% in 1994 to 47% in 2024 and projected to reach 52% by 2044, accompanied by a marked decline in agricultural and vegetated land. Mean LST increased from 19.95°C to 33.06°C over the study period, with strong and very strong UHI zones expanding more than fourfold. Hotspot analysis identified persistent high-temperature zones in central and southern wards of the city. Survey findings indicate that 96% of respondents experienced thermal discomfort, while 61.7% reported heat-related health impacts. These findings indicate that uncontrolled urban expansion is the primary driver of increasing thermal stress in Khulna. The study highlights the need for integrated urban greening, reflective materials, and climate-sensitive urban planning to enhance resilience and urban livability.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

The study was approved by the Department of Geography and Environment, Islamic University, Bangladesh (Ref. no. IU/GE/EA/2024_07). Informed consent was obtained from all participants, and responses were kept confidential.

References

  1. Abir, F. A., & Saha, R. (2021). Assessment of land surface temperature and land cover variability during winter: A spatio-temporal analysis of Pabna municipality in Bangladesh. Environmental Challenges, 4, 100167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100167
  2. Ahsan, R., Ara, S., Asad, R., & Ezazaa, S. (2025). Urbanization and Environmental degradation in Khulna, Bangladesh: An analysis of land use, land cover, and microclimate dynamics. In Disaster risk reduction (pp. 19–33). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-8746-6_2
  3. BBS. (2022). Population & Housing Census 2022. In Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Retrieved October 5, 2025, from https://bbs.gov.bd/site/page/47856ad0-7e1c-4aab-bd78-892733bc06eb/-
  4. Chander, G. and Markham, B. (2003) Revised Landsat-5 TM Radiometric Calibration Procedures and Post Calibration Dynamic Ranges. IEEE Transaction on Geosciences and Remote Sensing, 41, 2674-2677. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2003.818464
  5. Dewan, A., Kiselev, G., Botje, D., Mahmud, G. I., Bhuian, M. H., & Hassan, Q. K. (2021). Surface urban heat island intensity in five major cities of Bangladesh: Patterns, drivers and trends. Sustainable Cities and Society, 71, 102926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102926
  6. Hasnat, G. T. (2022). Assessment of spatiotemporal distribution pattern of land surface temperature with incessant urban sprawl over Khulna and Rajshahi City Corporations. Environmental Challenges, 9, 100644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100644
  7. Hassan, M. M. (2017). Monitoring land use/land cover change, urban growth dynamics and landscape pattern analysis in five fastest urbanized cities in Bangladesh. Remote Sensing Applications Society and Environment, 7, 69–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.07.001
  8. Hossain, M. A., Haque, M. I., Parvin, M. A., & Islam, M. N. (2023). Evaluation of iron contamination in groundwater with its associated health risk and potentially suitable depth analysis in Kushtia Sadar Upazila of Bangladesh. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 21, 100946. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2023.100946

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

July 3, 2026

Submission Date

February 14, 2026

Acceptance Date

May 8, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 8

APA
Tasnim, S., Hossain, M. A., Khusbu, S., Islam, M. S., Bashar, A., Najia, S. I., & Kabir, M. A. (2026). Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing, 8. https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1889470
AMA
1.Tasnim S, Hossain MA, Khusbu S, et al. Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh. TJRS. 2026;8. doi:10.51489/tuzal.1889470
Chicago
Tasnim, Samia, Md. Anik Hossain, Sabakunnaher Khusbu, et al. 2026. “Geospatial Modeling of Land Use Change, Urban Heat Island Dynamics, and Public Perception in a Rapidly Urbanizing Coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh”. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing 8 (July). https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1889470.
EndNote
Tasnim S, Hossain MA, Khusbu S, Islam MS, Bashar A, Najia SI, Kabir MA (July 1, 2026) Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing 8
IEEE
[1]S. Tasnim et al., “Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh”, TJRS, vol. 8, July 2026, doi: 10.51489/tuzal.1889470.
ISNAD
Tasnim, Samia - Hossain, Md. Anik - Khusbu, Sabakunnaher - Islam, Md. Shofiqul - Bashar, Abul - Najia, Syeda Ishrat - Kabir, Md. Anisul. “Geospatial Modeling of Land Use Change, Urban Heat Island Dynamics, and Public Perception in a Rapidly Urbanizing Coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh”. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing 8 (July 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1889470.
JAMA
1.Tasnim S, Hossain MA, Khusbu S, Islam MS, Bashar A, Najia SI, Kabir MA. Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh. TJRS. 2026;8. doi:10.51489/tuzal.1889470.
MLA
Tasnim, Samia, et al. “Geospatial Modeling of Land Use Change, Urban Heat Island Dynamics, and Public Perception in a Rapidly Urbanizing Coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh”. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing, vol. 8, July 2026, doi:10.51489/tuzal.1889470.
Vancouver
1.Samia Tasnim, Md. Anik Hossain, Sabakunnaher Khusbu, Md. Shofiqul Islam, Abul Bashar, Syeda Ishrat Najia, Md. Anisul Kabir. Geospatial modeling of land use change, urban heat island dynamics, and public perception in a rapidly urbanizing coastal City of Southwestern Bangladesh. TJRS. 2026 Jul. 1;8. doi:10.51489/tuzal.1889470

 SCImago Journal & Country Rank             Flag Counter