Devlet Aklının Süreklilik Gösteren İlkeleri: Güç ve Zafiyet Esnasında Osmanlı–Türk Dış Politikası

Öz

Osmanlı ve Türk dış politikası farklı tarihsel dönemler, değişen güç ve kırınganlık/zaafiyet koşullarında hangi stratejik ilkeler çerçevesinde yapılandırılmaktadır? Türk dış politikası üzerine yapılan çalışmalar büyük ölçüde kronolojik tarihsel anlatılara veya dönemsel teorik analizlere odaklanmış, uzun dönemli, tekrarlayan stratejik ilkelerin tespit edilmesi ve incelenmesine yeterince vakit ayırmamıştır. Bu çalışma, hayatta kalma ve sistemik baskı/kısıtlamalara dayalı realist anlayış çerçevesinde temellendirilen teorik bir uzun dönemli (longue durée) perspektifi mercek altına alır. Osmanlı İmparatorluğu ve Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nde dış politika davranışını şekillendiren iki kalıcı ilke tanımlar: stratejik ihtiyat ve düşmanın yalnızlaştırılması. Analiz, ihtiyatın hem güç hem de kırılganlık koşullarında varlığına devam ettiğini ve etkili tehdit yönetiminin asıl düşmanı/düşmanları yalnızlaştırma ve düşman koalisyon oluşumunu sınırlama/engelleme kapasitesiyle yakından ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Genel olarak bulgular, rejim değişimi ve değişen yapısal kısıtlamalara rağmen stratejik aklın sürekliliğinin altını çizmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Osmanlı-Türk Dış Politikası
• Realizm
• Stratejik İhtiyat
• Düşmanı Yalnızlaştırma
• Devlet Aklı

Enduring Principles of Statecraft: Ottoman–Turkish Foreign Policy across Power and Vulnerability

Öz

Do recurring strategic principles structure Ottoman and Turkish foreign policy across different historical periods and varying conditions of power and vulnerability? The literature on Turkish foreign policy has largely focused either on chronological historical accounts or period-specific theoretical analyses, leaving limited space for examining recurrent strategic logics across extended temporal horizons. This study adopts a theoretically anchored longue durée perspective, grounded in realist arguments centered on survival and systemic constraints. It identifies two persistent principles, strategic prudence and adversary desolidarization, that shaped foreign policy behavior across both the Ottoman Empire and the Republic of Turkey. The analysis shows that prudence recurs under conditions of both strength and vulnerability, and that effective threat management is closely linked to the capacity to isolate principal adversaries and limit hostile coalition formation. Overall, the findings underscore the continuity of strategic reasoning across regime change and shifting structural constraints.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ottoman–Turkish Foreign Policy
• Realism
• Strategic Prudence
• Adversary Desolidarization
• Statecraft

Kaynakça

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