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The Impact of Economic Factors on Voter Preferences: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, , 139 - 149, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1032881

Öz

The current study investigates the relationship between the votes of political parties and per capita gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation rates in Turkey for the years between 1990 and 2019. ADF, PP and Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root tests with structural breaks were used to determine the degree of stationarity of the variables. Maki cointegration test and ARDL bounds test were used under multiple structural breaks to determine the cointegration and short and long-term relationships between the variables. Finally, Todo-Yomamoto Granger causality test was used to determine the causality relationship between the variables. The results revealed that per capita gross domestic product positively affects the vote rates of political parties in the short-term, and inflation affects the vote rates of political parties negatively in the long-term. As a result of the Granger causality test, a one-way causality relationship was determined between inflation and the vote rates of political parties. According to this result, it is seen that the increase in the inflation rate causes a decrease in the vote rates of political parties in Turkey. Another important finding is that the unemployment rate has no effect on the vote rates of political parties.

Kaynakça

  • ADAMAN, F., ÇARKOĞLU, A. and ŞENATALAR, B. (2001)., “Hane Halkı Gözünden Türkiye'de Yolsuzluğun Nedenleri ve Önlenmesine İlişkin Öneriler”, TESEV Yayınları, No:24, İstanbul.
  • AKARCA, A. T. and TANSEL, A. (2009) “Social, Political and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 2002 Parliamentary Election”, Economic Research Forum.
  • AKARCA, ALİ T. and TANSEL, A. (2006), “Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004”, Public Choice, 129(1-2), ss. 7-105.
  • ARCELUS, F. and MELTZER, A. H. (1975), “The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections”, American Political Science Review, 69 (04), ss. 1232-1239.
  • ARMUTCU, B. and TAN, A. (2021), “The Effect of Economic Voting Theory on Voter Preference within the Scope of Political Marketing”, International Journal of Business & Economic Studies, Year: 2021, Vol: 3, No: 1, pp.55-64.
  • BAI, J. and PERRON, P. (2003), “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 18, s. 1-22.
  • BAŞLEVENT, C. and KIRMANOĞLU, H. (2016), “Economic voting in Turkey: perceptions, expectations, and the party choice”, Research and Policy on Turkey, 1(1), ss. 88-101.
  • BAŞLEVENT, C., KİRMANOĞLU, H. and ŞENATALAR, B. (2009), “Party preferences and economic voting in Turkey (now that the crisis is over)”, Party Politics, 15(3), ss. 377-391.
  • BULUTAY, T. and YILDIRIM, N. (1969), “Türk Seçmenlerinin Oy Verme Eğilimlerinde İktisadi Sebeplerin Üzerinde Bir Deneme”, SBF Dergisi, 23/4 (1968), ss. 7-42.
  • CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, J. L. KIM, D. and PERRON, P. (2009), “GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754–1792.
  • CHAPPEL, H. W. and VEİGA, L. G. (2000), "Economic and Elections in Western Europe: 1960-1997”, Electoral Studies, 19: 183-97.
  • ÇARKOĞLU, Ali (1997), “Macro Economic Determinants of Electoral Support for Incumbents in Turkey, 1950–1995”, New Perspectives on Turkey, 17, ss. 75-96.
  • ÇINAR, A. (2010) , “Ekonominin seçmen ideolojisi üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği”, Doktora tezi, DEÜ Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
  • ÇİNKO, L. (2006) , “Seçmen Davranışları İle Ekonomik Performans Arasındaki İlişkilerin Teorik Temelleri Ve Türkiye Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 61 (01) , ss. 103-116.
  • DE NEVE, J. E. (2009), “Ideological Change and the Economics Voting Behavior in the 1920-2008”, Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association and LSE Political Science and Political Economy Seminar.
  • DEAN, D. and ROBIN, C. (2009), "Reason and choice: A conceptual study of consumer decision making and electoral behavior", Journal of Political Marketing 8: 130-146.
  • DICKEY, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, ss.1057-1072.
  • DOWNS, A. (1957), “An Economic Theory of Democracy”, New York: Haper & Row Collins Pub.
  • DURR, R. H. (1993), “What Moves Policy Sentiment?”, The American Political Science Review. Vol 87. No 1. ss. 158-170.
  • ERCINS, G. (2007), “Türkiye’de Sosyo-Ekonomik Faktörlere Bağlı Olarak Değişen Seçmen Davranışı”, CÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), ss. 25-40.
  • ERDOĞAN, E. (2013), “Denklemi Gözden Geçirmek: Türkiye Bağlamında Partizanlık ve Ekonomik Oy Verme Hipotezi,” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 28(325), 27-60.
  • ERDOĞAN, S. (2004), “Siyaset-Ekonomi İlişkileri”, Değişim Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • ERIKSON, R. S. (1989), “Economic conditions and the presidential vote,” The American Political Science Review, 567-573.
  • EROĞLU, M. H. (2019), “Economic voting and relative importance of domestic and international reference points”, Doctoral Thesis.
  • FAIR, R. C. (1996), “Econometrics and presidential elections”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(3), ss. 89-102.
  • FAIR, R. C. (1978) “The effect of economic events on votes for president”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, ss. 159-173.
  • GOODHART, C. A. E. and Bhansali, R. J. (1970), “Political Economy,” Political Studies, 18, ss. 43-106.
  • GUJARATI, D.N. (2012). “Temel Ekonometri” Basic Econometrics, (çev.) Şenesen, Ü & Günlük Şenesen, G., İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları. ss. 725-726.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 71(04), ss. 1467-1487.
  • KAPUSIZOĞLU, M. (2011), “Ekonomik Kriz, 2002 Seçimleri ve Seçmen Tercihi”, Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), ss. 121-131.
  • KİM, H. and FORDING, R. C. (2001), “Voter Ideology, the Economy, and the International Enviroment in Western Democracies, 1952-1989”, Political Behavior, Vol:23, No:1, ss. 53-73.
  • KRAMER, G. H. (1971), “Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964”, American Political Science Review, 65: ss. 131–143.
  • LAU, R. R. and REDLAWSK, D. P. (2006), “How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns”, Cambridge University Press.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. and Paldam, M. (2000), “Economic Voting: An Introduction”, Electoral Studies, 19 (2–3) ,113-121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00042-6.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. (1990), “Economics and Eleetion: The Major Western Democrades”, The University of Michigan Press.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. (1986), “Comparative Economic Voting: Britain, France, Germany, Italy”, American Journal of Political Science, 30(2), ss. 315-346.
  • MAKI, D. (2012), “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015.
  • MARKUSSEN, S. (2008), “How the Left Prospers From Prosperity”, Europen Journal of Political Economy, 24. ss. 329-342.
  • Mueller, J. E. (1970), “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”, American Political Science Review, 64: ss. 18-34.
  • NANNESTAD, P. and PALDAM, M. (1994), “The VP-function: A survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years”, Public Choice, 79(3), 213-245.
  • NORDHAUS, W. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42, ss. 1969 – 1990.
  • PESARAN, M. H. and SHIN, Y. (1995), “An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis”, Econometric Society Monographs, 31, ss. 371- 413.
  • PHILLIPS, P. CB. and PERRON, P. (1988), “Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, ss.335-346.
  • POWELL, G. B. and WHİTTEN, G. D. (1993), “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”, American Journal of Political Science, 37/2, ss. 391-414.
  • STEVENSON, R. T. (2001), “The Economy and Policy Mood: A Fundamental Dynamic of Democratic Politics?”, American Journal of Political Science. Vol: 45. No: 3. ss. 620-633. http://www.jstore.org/stable/2669242.
  • STIGLER, G. (1973), “General Economic Conditions and National Elections”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 63, ss. 160 – 167.
  • TEKBAŞ, M. (2020), The Relationship Between Export Dıversıfıcatıon and Economic Development In Turkish Economy, Erdoğan, S., Akalin, G. (Ed), Different Aspects of Economic Development, 1. Edition, Ankara.
  • TEKBAŞ, M. and OĞUZ, İ.H., (2020), Krizden Çıkış için Yenilikçi Yaklaşım: Beşeri Sermaye, Teknolojik Gelişme ve Üretkenlik, Bulut, Ö.U. and Aykırı, M. (Ed), Ekonomik Krizler Ve Yenilikçi Yaklaşımlar Teoriden Uygulamaya, 1. Edition, Konya.
  • TODA, H. Y. and YAMAMOTO, T. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, ss. 225-250.
  • TUFTE, E. R. (1980), “Political Control of the Economy”, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=XApc8GX0F4MC.
  • WESTERLUND, J. and EDGERTON, D. (2006), “Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Lund University, Department of Economics, Working Papers, No: 13.

The Impact of Economic Factors on Voter Preferences: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, , 139 - 149, 31.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1032881

Öz

The current study investigates the relationship between the votes of political parties and per capita gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation rates in Turkey for the years between 1990 and 2019. ADF, PP and Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root tests with structural breaks were used to determine the degree of stationarity of the variables. Maki cointegration test and ARDL bounds test were used under multiple structural breaks to determine the cointegration and short and long-term relationships between the variables. Finally, Todo-Yomamoto Granger causality test was used to determine the causality relationship between the variables. The results revealed that per capita gross domestic product positively affects the vote rates of political parties in the short-term, and inflation affects the vote rates of political parties negatively in the long-term. As a result of the Granger causality test, a one-way causality relationship was determined between inflation and the vote rates of political parties. According to this result, it is seen that the increase in the inflation rate causes a decrease in the vote rates of political parties in Turkey. Another important finding is that the unemployment rate has no effect on the vote rates of political parties.

Kaynakça

  • ADAMAN, F., ÇARKOĞLU, A. and ŞENATALAR, B. (2001)., “Hane Halkı Gözünden Türkiye'de Yolsuzluğun Nedenleri ve Önlenmesine İlişkin Öneriler”, TESEV Yayınları, No:24, İstanbul.
  • AKARCA, A. T. and TANSEL, A. (2009) “Social, Political and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 2002 Parliamentary Election”, Economic Research Forum.
  • AKARCA, ALİ T. and TANSEL, A. (2006), “Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004”, Public Choice, 129(1-2), ss. 7-105.
  • ARCELUS, F. and MELTZER, A. H. (1975), “The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections”, American Political Science Review, 69 (04), ss. 1232-1239.
  • ARMUTCU, B. and TAN, A. (2021), “The Effect of Economic Voting Theory on Voter Preference within the Scope of Political Marketing”, International Journal of Business & Economic Studies, Year: 2021, Vol: 3, No: 1, pp.55-64.
  • BAI, J. and PERRON, P. (2003), “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 18, s. 1-22.
  • BAŞLEVENT, C. and KIRMANOĞLU, H. (2016), “Economic voting in Turkey: perceptions, expectations, and the party choice”, Research and Policy on Turkey, 1(1), ss. 88-101.
  • BAŞLEVENT, C., KİRMANOĞLU, H. and ŞENATALAR, B. (2009), “Party preferences and economic voting in Turkey (now that the crisis is over)”, Party Politics, 15(3), ss. 377-391.
  • BULUTAY, T. and YILDIRIM, N. (1969), “Türk Seçmenlerinin Oy Verme Eğilimlerinde İktisadi Sebeplerin Üzerinde Bir Deneme”, SBF Dergisi, 23/4 (1968), ss. 7-42.
  • CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, J. L. KIM, D. and PERRON, P. (2009), “GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754–1792.
  • CHAPPEL, H. W. and VEİGA, L. G. (2000), "Economic and Elections in Western Europe: 1960-1997”, Electoral Studies, 19: 183-97.
  • ÇARKOĞLU, Ali (1997), “Macro Economic Determinants of Electoral Support for Incumbents in Turkey, 1950–1995”, New Perspectives on Turkey, 17, ss. 75-96.
  • ÇINAR, A. (2010) , “Ekonominin seçmen ideolojisi üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği”, Doktora tezi, DEÜ Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
  • ÇİNKO, L. (2006) , “Seçmen Davranışları İle Ekonomik Performans Arasındaki İlişkilerin Teorik Temelleri Ve Türkiye Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 61 (01) , ss. 103-116.
  • DE NEVE, J. E. (2009), “Ideological Change and the Economics Voting Behavior in the 1920-2008”, Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association and LSE Political Science and Political Economy Seminar.
  • DEAN, D. and ROBIN, C. (2009), "Reason and choice: A conceptual study of consumer decision making and electoral behavior", Journal of Political Marketing 8: 130-146.
  • DICKEY, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49, ss.1057-1072.
  • DOWNS, A. (1957), “An Economic Theory of Democracy”, New York: Haper & Row Collins Pub.
  • DURR, R. H. (1993), “What Moves Policy Sentiment?”, The American Political Science Review. Vol 87. No 1. ss. 158-170.
  • ERCINS, G. (2007), “Türkiye’de Sosyo-Ekonomik Faktörlere Bağlı Olarak Değişen Seçmen Davranışı”, CÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), ss. 25-40.
  • ERDOĞAN, E. (2013), “Denklemi Gözden Geçirmek: Türkiye Bağlamında Partizanlık ve Ekonomik Oy Verme Hipotezi,” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 28(325), 27-60.
  • ERDOĞAN, S. (2004), “Siyaset-Ekonomi İlişkileri”, Değişim Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • ERIKSON, R. S. (1989), “Economic conditions and the presidential vote,” The American Political Science Review, 567-573.
  • EROĞLU, M. H. (2019), “Economic voting and relative importance of domestic and international reference points”, Doctoral Thesis.
  • FAIR, R. C. (1996), “Econometrics and presidential elections”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(3), ss. 89-102.
  • FAIR, R. C. (1978) “The effect of economic events on votes for president”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, ss. 159-173.
  • GOODHART, C. A. E. and Bhansali, R. J. (1970), “Political Economy,” Political Studies, 18, ss. 43-106.
  • GUJARATI, D.N. (2012). “Temel Ekonometri” Basic Econometrics, (çev.) Şenesen, Ü & Günlük Şenesen, G., İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları. ss. 725-726.
  • HIBBS, D. A. (1977), “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”, American Political Science Review, 71(04), ss. 1467-1487.
  • KAPUSIZOĞLU, M. (2011), “Ekonomik Kriz, 2002 Seçimleri ve Seçmen Tercihi”, Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), ss. 121-131.
  • KİM, H. and FORDING, R. C. (2001), “Voter Ideology, the Economy, and the International Enviroment in Western Democracies, 1952-1989”, Political Behavior, Vol:23, No:1, ss. 53-73.
  • KRAMER, G. H. (1971), “Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964”, American Political Science Review, 65: ss. 131–143.
  • LAU, R. R. and REDLAWSK, D. P. (2006), “How voters decide: Information processing in election campaigns”, Cambridge University Press.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. and Paldam, M. (2000), “Economic Voting: An Introduction”, Electoral Studies, 19 (2–3) ,113-121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00042-6.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. (1990), “Economics and Eleetion: The Major Western Democrades”, The University of Michigan Press.
  • LEWIS-BECK, M. S. (1986), “Comparative Economic Voting: Britain, France, Germany, Italy”, American Journal of Political Science, 30(2), ss. 315-346.
  • MAKI, D. (2012), “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015.
  • MARKUSSEN, S. (2008), “How the Left Prospers From Prosperity”, Europen Journal of Political Economy, 24. ss. 329-342.
  • Mueller, J. E. (1970), “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”, American Political Science Review, 64: ss. 18-34.
  • NANNESTAD, P. and PALDAM, M. (1994), “The VP-function: A survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years”, Public Choice, 79(3), 213-245.
  • NORDHAUS, W. (1975), “The Political Business Cycle”, Review of Economic Studies, 42, ss. 1969 – 1990.
  • PESARAN, M. H. and SHIN, Y. (1995), “An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis”, Econometric Society Monographs, 31, ss. 371- 413.
  • PHILLIPS, P. CB. and PERRON, P. (1988), “Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, ss.335-346.
  • POWELL, G. B. and WHİTTEN, G. D. (1993), “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”, American Journal of Political Science, 37/2, ss. 391-414.
  • STEVENSON, R. T. (2001), “The Economy and Policy Mood: A Fundamental Dynamic of Democratic Politics?”, American Journal of Political Science. Vol: 45. No: 3. ss. 620-633. http://www.jstore.org/stable/2669242.
  • STIGLER, G. (1973), “General Economic Conditions and National Elections”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 63, ss. 160 – 167.
  • TEKBAŞ, M. (2020), The Relationship Between Export Dıversıfıcatıon and Economic Development In Turkish Economy, Erdoğan, S., Akalin, G. (Ed), Different Aspects of Economic Development, 1. Edition, Ankara.
  • TEKBAŞ, M. and OĞUZ, İ.H., (2020), Krizden Çıkış için Yenilikçi Yaklaşım: Beşeri Sermaye, Teknolojik Gelişme ve Üretkenlik, Bulut, Ö.U. and Aykırı, M. (Ed), Ekonomik Krizler Ve Yenilikçi Yaklaşımlar Teoriden Uygulamaya, 1. Edition, Konya.
  • TODA, H. Y. and YAMAMOTO, T. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, ss. 225-250.
  • TUFTE, E. R. (1980), “Political Control of the Economy”, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=XApc8GX0F4MC.
  • WESTERLUND, J. and EDGERTON, D. (2006), “Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Lund University, Department of Economics, Working Papers, No: 13.
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Barış Armutcu 0000-0002-4865-026X

Ahmet Tan 0000-0001-9972-4372

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021

Kaynak Göster

APA Armutcu, B., & Tan, A. (2021). The Impact of Economic Factors on Voter Preferences: The Case of Turkey. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 3(2), 139-149. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1032881

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