Ekonomik Büyüme ve Sermayenin Finansal Gelişme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneğinde Finansal Küreselleşmenin Rolünün ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı İle Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye örneğinde 1990-2018 dönemi için ekonomik büyüme, sermaye ve finansal küreselleşmenin finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesidir. Analizde, finansal gelişmenin göstergesi olarak özel sektöre verilen krediler kullanılmıştır. Küreselleşmenin ölçütü olarak ise KOF finansal küreselleşme indeksi esas alınmıştır. Seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile ortaya konularak uzun dönem tahmini yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda tüm değişkenlerin finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. ARDL modelinin güvenirliliğini ortaya koymak için ayrıca FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR modelleri ile uzun dönem tahmini yapılmıştır. Tüm modellerde tahmin sonuçlarının birbirleri ile tutarlı olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Son aşamada yapılan Toda Yamamoto nedensellik analizinde finansal gelişme ile GDP ve sermaye arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Finansal küreselleşmeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla finansal küreselleşmenin Türkiye’deki finansal sistemin büyüme ve gelişim sürecinde önemli bir faktör olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Küreselleşme
• Finansal Gelişme
• ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Impact of Economic Growth and Capital on Financial Development: Analysis of the Role of Financial Globalization in the Case of Turkey with ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic growth, capital and financial globalization on financial development for the period 1990-2018 in the case of Turkey. In the analysis, credits to the private sector were used as an indicator of financial development. The measure of globalization is based on the KOF financial globalization index. The long-run relationship between the series was revealed with the ARDL Bounds Test approach and a long-run prediction was made. As a result of the analysis, the effect of all variables on financial development was found to be positive and statistically significant. Long-run estimating was also made with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR models to demonstrate the reliability of the ARDL model. In all models, it was found that the estimation results were consistent with each other. In the latest Toda Yamamoto causality analysis, the bidirectional causality relationship between financial development and GDP and capital was identified. A unidirectional causality relationship from financial globalization to financial development has been found. Therefore, it has been concluded that financial globalization is an important factor in the growth and development process of the financial system in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Globalization
• Financial Development
• ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Kaynakça

1. Al-Yousif, Y. K. (2002). Financial development and economic growth: another look at the evidence from developing countries. Review of Financial Economics, 11(2), 131-150.
2. Ang, J. B. (2008). A survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(3), 536-576.
3. Arestis, P., & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: assessing the evidence. The Economic journal, 107(442), 783-799.
4. Balcilar, M., Gungor, H., & Olasehinde-Williams, G. (2019). On the impact of globalization on financial development: a multi-country panel study. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(1), 350-350.
5. Baldwin, R. E., & Forslid, R. (2000). Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: A q-theory approach. Journal of International Economics, 50(2), 497-517.
6. Baltagi, B. H., Demetriades, P., & Law, S. H. (2009). Financial development and openness: panel data evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 285-296.
7. Bencivenga, V. R., & Smith, B. D. (1991). Financial intermediation and endogenous growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 195-209.
8. Bhanumurthy, N. R., & Kumawat, L. (2020). Financial globalization and economic growth in South Asia. South Asia Economic Journal, 21(1), 31-57.

9. Çağlayan, E., & Saçaklı, İ. (2006). Satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliğinin sifir frekansta spektrum tahmincisine dayanan birim kök testleri ile incelenmesi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 121-137.
10. Calderón, C., & Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334.
11. Cetin, M., & Saygın, s. (2019). Yapısal kırılma altında ticari dışa açıklığının enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi örneği. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 316-332.
12. Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387-411.
13. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
14. Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir, M. S., & Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306.
15. Egbetunde, T., & Akinlo, A. E. (2015). Financial globalization and economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel cointegration tests. African Development Review, 27(3), 187-198.
16. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
17. Falahaty, M., & Law, S. H. (2012). The effect of globalization on financial development in the MENA region. Transition Studies Review, 19(2), 205-223.
18. Ganiev, J. (2014). Küreselleşme, Finansal Piyasalar ve Kriz. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 117-129.
19. García E.D.T. (2012). Financial globalization and financial development in Latin America. Cuadernos de Economía, 31(SPE57), 89-111.
20. Goldsmith, R. W. (1959). Financial structure and development as a subject for international comparative study. The Comparative Study of Economic Growth and Structure (pp. 114-123). NBER.
21. Helhel, Y. (2017). Küreselleşme ve Finansal Gelişme Arasındaki Etkileşimin Türkiye ve BRICS Ülkeleri İçin İncelenmesi”, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(20), 158-178.
22. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
23. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. Kandil, M., Shahbaz, M., & Nasreen, S. (2015). The interaction between globalization and financial development: new evidence from panel cointegration and causality analysis. Empirical Economics, 49(4), 1317-1339.
24. King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.
25. Kızılgol, Ö. (2006). Türkiye’de büyüme oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişki. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(6), 54-69.
26. Koçak, E. (2014). Türkiye’de çevresel kuznets eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği: ardl sınır testi yaklaşımı. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 2(3), 62-73.
27. Law, S. H., & Demetriades, P. (2006). Openness, institutions and financial development world economy and finance research programme. Birkbeck, University of London.
28. Levine, R., Aghion, P., & Durlauf, S. N. (2005). Handbook of economic growth. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence, Amsterdam, NorthHolland Elsevier Publishers, pp. 865-934.
29. Mckinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
30. Murinde, V., & Eng, F. S. (1994). Financial development and economic growth in Singapore: demand-following or supply-leading?. Applied Financial Economics, 4(6), 391-404.
31. Müslümov, A., & Aras, G. (2002). Sermaye piyasası gelişmesi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 17(198), 90-100.
32. Muye, I. M., & Muye, I. Y. (2017). Testing for causality among globalization, institution and financial development: Further evidence from three economic blocs. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2), 117-132.
33. Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2006). Savings behaviour in Fiji: an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach to cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics.
34. Nasreen, S., & Pervez, P. (2017). Financial Development, Financial Liberalisation and Institutions Nexus in Selected Sample of Middle Income Countries. https://pide.org.pk/psde/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Samia%20Nasreen.pdf.
35. Obstfeld, M. (2009). International finance and growth in developing countries: what have we learned?. IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 63-111.
36. Ofori-Abebrese, G., Pickson, R. B., & Diabah, B. T. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Additional evidence from Ghana. Modern Economy, 8(2), 282-297.
37. Pata, U. K., & Ağca, A. (2018). Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasindaki Eşbütünleşme Ve Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 115-128.
38. Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992). Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 301-320.
39. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
40. Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
41. Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., Wei, S. J., & Kose, M. A. (2005). Effects of financial globalization on developing countries: some empirical evidence. India’s and China’s Recent Experience with Reform And Growth (pp. 201-228). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
42. Rathore, H. S., & Prajapati, R. (2019). The Impact of Financial Globalization on Indian Financial Market: A Case Study of Regional Rural Bank. Available at SSRN 3389130.
43. Rincón, H. (2007). Financial globalization, economic growth, and macroeconomic volatility. Colombia: Banco de la República. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/5448/be_430.pdf
44. Sarıgül, S. S., & Topcu, B. A. (2021). The impact of environmental taxes on carbon dioxide emissions in Turkey. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 3(1), 43-54.
45. Schularick, M., & Steger, T. M. (2010). Financial integration, investment, and economic growth: evidence from two eras of financial globalization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 756-768.
46. Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The theory of economic development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle (1912/1934). Transaction Publishers.,1, 244.
47. Shahbaz, M., Lean, H. H., & Shabbir, M. S. (2012). Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Pakistan: cointegration and Granger causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2947-2953.
48. Shan, J. Z., Morris, A. G., & Sun, F. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: An egg‐and‐chicken problem?. Review of international Economics, 9(3), 443-454.
49. Shan, J., & Morris, A. (2002). Does financial development'lead'economic growth?. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(2), 153-168.
50. Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
51. Türkoğlu, M. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye etkileri: nedensellik analizi. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6(1), 84-93.
52. Vogelsang, T. J., & Perron, P. (1998). Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. International Economic Review, 1073-1100.
53. Yuce Akıncı, G., Akıncı, M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2013). İktisadi küreselleşme ve finansal özgürlükler arasındaki ilişki: bir panel veri analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 80-99.
54. Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), 348-368.