Orta Doğu Çatışmasının Kripto Piyasasına Etkisi: Filistin-İsrail Savaşı ve Bitcoin Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Yıl 2024, , 185 - 196, 30.09.2024

Maryem Ebaba , Ayben Koy

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1523435

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, jeopolitik olayların Bitcoin'in performansı üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektir. Çalışma, militan grup Hamas'ın İsrail'e saldırısı, İran ile İsrail arasındaki gerilim ve Filistin ile ABD arasındaki çatışma da dahil olmak üzere 7 Ekim 2023'ten itibaren yaşanan dönemi incelemektedir. Olay çalışması yönteminin kullanıldığı Çalışmanın sonuçları, Bitcoin'in ayarlama ve tahmin dönemlerinde iyi performans gösterdiğine dair kanıtlar sunmakta ve bu da onun güvenli bir liman varlığı olabileceğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, olay günündeki negatif Aritmetik Ortalama Getiri (AAR), piyasanın ilk tepkisini yansıtmaktadır Çalışma yatırımcılara kripto para piyasasını etkileyen riskler hakkında daha derin bir anlayış sağlarken aynı zamanda Bitcoin'in spekülatif bir varlık ve güvenli bir liman varlığı olarak ikili yapısını da vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik Olaylar, Kripto Piyasaları, Hamas, Bitcoin

The Impact of Middle East Conflict on Crypto-Market Study Case Palestine-Israel War and Bitcoin

Öz

The objective of this research is to determine the impact of geopolitical developments on Bitcoin's value. It focuses on the events that occurred from October 7, 2023 including the attack on Israel by the militant group Hamas, the tension between Iran and Israel, and the conflict between Palestine and the US. Through a comprehensive event study, we can analyze the returns generated by these events. The results of the study Srevealed that Bitcoin performed well during the adjustment and anticipation periods, which showed that it could be a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the negative AAR during the event day reflected the market's first reaction. The study also highlighted Bitcoin's dual nature as a speculative asset and a safe-haven asset providing investors with a deeper understanding of the risks that affect the cryptocurrency market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical Events, Crypto Markets, Hamas’s Attack, Bitcoin

Kaynakça

• Abbassi, W., Kumari, V., & Pandey, D. K. (2022). What makes firms vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine Crisis?. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(1), 24-39.
• Alexakis, C., Anselmi, G., & Petrella, G. (2024). Flight to cryptos: Evidence on the use of cryptocurrencies in times of geopolitical tensions. International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 498-523.
• Almaqableh, L., Reddy, K., Pereira, V., Ramiah, V., Wallace, D., & Veron, J. F. (2022). An investigative study of links between terrorist attacks and cryptocurrency markets. Journal of Business Research, 147, 177-188.
• Appiah-Otoo, I. (2023). The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the cryptocurrency market. Asian Economics Letters, 4(1), 1-5.
• Arouri, M., Ayed, S., Barguellil, A., & Gomes, M. (2023). War and cryptocurrency markets: An empirical investigation. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4659220, 01.06.2024.
• Aslanidis, N., Bariviera, A. F., & López, Ó. G. (2022). The link between cryptocurrencies and google trends attention. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102654.
• Banday, U.J., Murugan, S., & Maryam, J. (2021). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in BRICS countries: Evidence from panel data. Transnational Corporations Review, 13 (2), 211–221.
• Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial review, 45(2), 217-229.
• Berti, B., & Guzansky, Y. (2014). Saudi Arabia's foreign policy on Iran and the proxy war in Syria: Toward a new chapter?. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, 8(3), 25-34.
• Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory econometrics for finance. Cambridge university press.
• Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
• Chen, M., Qin, C., & Zhang, X. (2022). Cryptocurrency price discrepancies under uncertainty: Evidence from COVID-19 and lockdown nexus. Journal of International Money and Finance, 124, 1-19.
• Colon, F., Kim, C., Kim, H., & Kim, W. (2021). The effect of political and economic uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market. Finance Research Letters, 39, 1-7.
• Corbet, S., Lucey, B., Urquhart, A., & Yarovaya, L. (2019). Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis, 62, 182-199.
• Daskalakis, N., & Daglis, T. (2023). The Russian war in Ukraine and its effect in the bitcoin market. International Journal of Economics & Business Administration, 11(1), 3-16.
• Diaconaşu, D. E., Mehdian, S. M., & Stoica, O. (2023). The reaction of financial markets to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: evidence from gold, oil, bitcoin, and major stock markets. Applied Economics Letters, 30(19), 2792-2796.
• Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets. Journal of finance, 25(2), 383-417.
• Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2022). The Arab spring: Causes, conditions, and driving forces. In Handbook of revolutions in the 21st century: The new waves of revolutions, and the causes and effects of disruptive political change (pp. 595-624). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
• Halousková, M., Stašek, D., & Horváth, M. (2022). The role of investor attention in global asset price variation during the invasion of Ukraine. Finance Research Letters, 50, 103292.
• Jankovic, V. (2024) Influence of the Ukraine-Russian conflict on cryptocurrency markets. https://is.muni.cz/th/ef15b/Influence_of_the_Ukraine-Russian_conflict_on_cryptocurrency_markets_lgl7r_Archive.pdf, 01.06.2024.
• Kayral, I. E., Jeribi, A., & Loukil, S. (2023). Are bitcoin and gold a safe haven during COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war?. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(4), 222.
• Kevser, M. (2023). Bitcoin as an alternative financial asset class: Relations between geopolitical risk, global economic political uncertainty, and energy consumption. Pamukkale Journal of Eurasian Socioeconomic Studies, 9(2), 117-131.
• Khalfaoui, R., Gozgor, G., & Goodell, J. W. (2023). Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis. Finance Research Letters, 52, 103365.
• Klein, T., Thu, H. P., & Walther, T. (2018). Bitcoin is not the new gold–A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance. International Review of Financial Analysis, 59, 105-116.
• Kothari, S. P., & Warner, J. B. (2007). Econometrics of event studies. In handbook of empirical corporate finance. Qin, M., Su, C., Tao, R. 2021. Bitcoin: A new basket for eggs? Economic Modelling, 94, 896-907.
• Kumar, S., Patel, R., Iqbal, N., & Gubareva, M. (2023). Interconnectivity among cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFi: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 68, 101983.
• Smith, C. D. (2017). Palestine and the Arab-Israeli conflict: A history with documents (Vol. 464, p. 466). Boston: Bedford/St. Martin's.
• Sun, M., Song, H., & Zhang, C. (2022). The effects of 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on global stock markets: An event study approach. Available at SSRN 4051987.
• Theiri, S., Nekhili, R., & Sultan, J. (2023). Cryptocurrency liquidity during the Russia–Ukraine war: The case of bitcoin and ethereum. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(1), 59-71.
• Tomic, N. (2020). Measuring the effects of bitcoin forks on selected cryptocurrencies using event study methodology. Industrija, 48(2), 21-36.
• Yan, Y., Lei, Y., & Wang, Y. (2022). Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and a medium of exchange. Axioms, 11(8), 415.
• Yen, K. C., & Cheng, H. P. (2020). US Partisan conflict and cryptocurrency market. Available at SSRN 3578271.
• Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723.