Güneydoğu Avrupa'da Kamu Borcu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışmanin, farklı ekonomik manzaralarla karakterize edilen bir bölge olan Güneydoğu Avrupa'da kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki karmaşık ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Panel veri ve çeşitli ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak yapılan ampirik bir analiz yoluyla, bu çalışma kamu borcu seviyesi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nüanslı ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışma çeşitli hipotezleri test etmekte ve hükümet borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki hem doğrusal hem de doğrusal olmayan ilişkileri incelemektedir. Çalışma, çok çeşitli literatür ve ampirik kanıtlardan yararlanmakta ve borç birikimi ile ekonomik performans arasındaki çok katmanlı dinamikleri ortaya çıkarmak için Keynesçi teoriler ve eşik etkileri dahil olmak üzere çeşitli teorik çerçeveleri test etmektedir. Çalışma, kamu borcu ile ekonomik büyüme arasında önemli bir negatif ilişkiyi teyit etmekte ve aşırı borcun ekonomik büyüme engellediği bir eşik kavramını desteklemektedir. Sonuçlar kamu borcu ile büyüme arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki olduğunu öne sürmekte ve borcun ekonomik performans üzerindeki bağlama özgü etkilerini vurgulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, enflasyonun, yolsuzluğun, düzenleyici kalitenin ve hükümet etkinliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki nüanslı etkilerini göstermekte ve bu ilişkilerin karmaşıklığına ışık tutmaktadır. Çalışma, borcun üretken yatırımlara yönlendirilmesi halinde büyümeyi teşvik edebileceğini kabul ederken, ekonomik büyüme engelleyebilecek kritik eşikleri aşmaktan kaçınmak için dikkatli borç yönetimine ihtiyaç olduğunu da vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kamu Borcu
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Güneydoğu Avrupa
• Borç Yönetimi

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Southeast Europe: A Panel Data Approach

Öz

The study examines the complicated relationship between public debt and economic growth in Southeast Europe, a region characterized by different economic landscapes. Through an empirical analysis using panel data and various econometric methods, this study examines the nuanced relationship between the level of public debt and economic progress. The study tests several hypotheses and examines both linear and non-linear relationships between government debt and economic growth. The study draws on a wide range of literature and empirical evidence and tests various theoretical frameworks, including Keynesian theories and threshold effects, to reveal the multi-layered dynamics between debt accumulation and economic performance. The study confirms a significant negative relationship between public debt and economic growth and supports the notion of a threshold beyond which excessive debt hinders economic progress. The results suggest a non-linear relationship between public debt and growth and emphasize the context-specific effects of debt on economic performance. The results show nuanced effects of inflation, corruption, regulatory quality and government effectiveness on economic growth and shed light on the complexity of these relationships. While the study recognizes that debt can stimulate growth if it is channeled into productive investments, it also highlights the need for careful debt management to avoid crossing critical thresholds that could impede economic progress.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Public Debt
• Economic Growth
• Southeast Europe
• Debt Management

Kaynakça

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