A Time Series Analysis of the Determinants of Globalization in the Chinese Economy

Öz

The Chinese economy has undergone significant structural transformations in the past decade. By opening up the economy and attracting foreign capital investments, China has gained substantial momentum in recent years. Undoubtedly, globalization has played a crucial role in this success. This study empirically analyzes the dynamics of globalization in the Chinese economy over the period of 1990-2021. It examines the impact of financial development, ICT, fiscal policy, and trade openness on globalization. The study utilizes the ADF and PP tests for unit root analysis, and the ARDL bounds test is applied to evaluate cointegration. Long-term estimates are derived using the DOLS estimator. The study identifies a cointegration relationship among the series, providing evidence that financial development, ICT, fiscal policy, and trade openness positively affect and enhance globalization. Policy recommendations can be made for Chinese policymakers to further strengthen globalization.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Globalization
• Financial Development
• ARDL Approach
• DOLS Estimator
• China

Çin Ekonomisinde Küreselleşmenin Belirleyicilerinin Zaman Serisi Analizi

Öz

Çin ekonomisi son on yılda önemli yapısal dönüşümler geçirmiştir. Ekonominin dışa açılması ve yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının çekilmesi sayesinde Çin, son yıllarda kayda değer bir ivme kazanmıştır. Şüphesiz bu başarıda küreselleşme kritik bir rol oynamıştır. Bu çalışma, 1990-2021 dönemi kapsamında Çin ekonomisinde küreselleşmenin dinamiklerini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada finansal gelişmenin, bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin (BİT), maliye politikasının ve dışa açıklığın küreselleşme üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Birim kök analizi için ADF ve PP testleri, eşbütünleşmenin sınanması için ise ARDL sınır testi kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem tahminleri DOLS tahmincisi aracılığıyla elde edilmiştir. Çalışma, seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit ederek finansal gelişmenin, BİT’in, maliye politikasının ve dışa açıklığın küreselleşmeyi olumlu yönde etkilediğini ve güçlendirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular doğrultusunda Çinli politika yapıcılara küreselleşmeyi daha da güçlendirmeye yönelik politika önerilerinde bulunulabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küreselleşme
• Finansal Gelişme
• ARDL Yaklaşımı
• DOLS Tahmincisi
• Çin

Kaynakça

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