The Validity of the Tourism-induced EKC Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 124 - 138, 31.12.2021

Emine Kılavuz Burcu Oralhan Sevgi Sumerli Sarıgül Eyup Emre Uluğ

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1033651

Cited By: 4

Öz

This paper examines the existence of relationship between international tourist arrivals (TA), and Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (CO2) in Turkey over the period 1960-2015. We also use energy use per capita (EU) and GDP per capita (GDP) as a control variables. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach was applied to analyze the long-run relationship among the variables. The results confirmed the validity of the tourism-induced Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. An increased tourism demand increases environmental pollution up to a point where the sector attains a certain development level, after which emissions begin to fall. On the other hand, the results indicate that the EKC hypothesis between income and CO2 emissions has not been confirmed. Energy usage has positive and significant effects on carbon dioxide emissions as expected. For sustainable tourism and to the reduction of emissions in Turkey, environmental protection and the use of renewable energy should be supported by policy makers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism, EKC hypothesis, ARDL bounds testing to cointegration, Turkey.

Kaynakça

• Al-Mulali U. &Sheau-Ting, L. (2014). Econometric analysis of trade, exports, imports, energy sonsumption and CO2 emission in six regions, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 33, 484-498.
• Al-Mulali, U., Ozturk, I., & Lean, H. H. (2015). The Influence of Economic Growth, Urbanization, Trade Openness, Financial Fevelopment, and Renewable Energy on Pollution in Europe. Nat Hazards 79: 621-644. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1865-9.
• Azam, M., Alam, M., M. & Hafeez, M. H. (2018). Effect of Tourism on Environmental Pollution: Further Evidence from Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Journal of Cleaner Production 190, 330-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.04.168.
• Balli, E., Ciler Sigeze, C., Manga, M., Birdir, S., & Birdir, K. (2019). The Relationship Between Tourism, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: A Case of Mediterranean Countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24:3, 219-232, DOI: 10.1080/10941665.2018.1557717.
• Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Shahbaz, M., & Sinha, A. (2020). The Effects of Tourism and Globalization Over Environmental Degradation in Developed Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 7130-7144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07372-4.
• Becken, S.&Simmons, D.G. (2002). Understanding energy consumption patterns of tourist attractions and activities in New Zeland, Tourism Management, 23, 343-354.
• Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., & Apergis, N. (2019). The Dynamic Linkage Between Renewable Energy, Tourism, CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade. Latin American Economic Review 28, 2(2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40503-019-0063-7.
• Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., & Apergis, N. (2015). The Dynamic Interaction Between Combustible Renewables and Waste Consumption and International Tourism: The Case of Tunisia. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 22(16): 12050-61. Doi: 10.1007/s11356-015-4483-x.
• Chishti, M. Z., Ullah, S., & Ozturk, I.&Usman,Al. (2020). Examining The Asymmetric Effects of Globalization and Tourism on Pollution Emissions in South Asia. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 27721–27737 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09057-9.
• Churkina, G. (2016). The Role of Urbanization in the Global Carbon Cycle. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2015.00144.
• Crippa, M., Guizzardi, D., Muntean, M., Schaaf, E., Solazzo, E., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Olivier, J. G. J., & Vignati, E. (2020). Fossil CO2 Emissions of All World Countries- 2020 Report. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
• Destek, M. A., Shahbaz, M., Okumus, I. et al. (2020). The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in G-7 Countries: Evidence From Time-Varying Parameters With A Long History. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 29100–29117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09189-y.
• Dogan, E., Seker, F., & Bulbul, S. (2017). Investigating The Impacts of Energy Consumption, Real GDP, Tourism and Trade on CO2 Emissions by Accounting for Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Panel Study of OECD Countries. Curr Issues Tour 20:1701–1719.
• Dogan, E., & Aslan, A. (2017). Exploring The Relationship Among CO2 Emissions, Real GDP, Energy Consumption and Tourism in The EU and Candidate Countries: Evidence From Panel Models Robust to Heterogeneity and Cross-Sectional Dependence. Renewable & Sustaınable Energy Reviews, Vol.77, 239-245.
• Durbarry, R., & Seetanah, B. (2015). The Impact of Long Haul Destinations on Carbon Emissions: The Case of Mauritius. Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 24:4, 401-410, DOI: 10.1080/19368623.2014.914363.
• Dwyer, L., Forsyth, P., Spurr, R., & Hoque, S. (2010). Estimating The Carbon Footprint of Australian Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 355–376.
• Elliot, G., T.J. Rothenberg and J.H. Stock, (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64(4): 813-836.
• Engle, Robert F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Con-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, Vol. 55, Issue 2, 251-276.
• EPA, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data Available at: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data, Accessed 2019 Sep. 11.
• EY Turkey. (2020). Tourism Market Overview. Ernst Young Kurumsal Finansal Danısmanlık AS 1-34.
• Fang, Y., Yin, J., & Wu, B. (2018). Climate Change and Tourism: A Scientometric Analysis Using Citespace. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26:1, 108-126.
• Forster, P. M., Forster, H. I., & Evans, M. J. et al. (2020). Current and Future Global Climate Impacts Resulting from COVID-19. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 913–919 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0.
• Gössling, S. (2013). National emissions from tourism: An overlooked policy challenge? Energy Policy Vol. 59, 433-442.
• Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C.M. (2020). Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: A Rapid Assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29:1, 1-20.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper No. 3914.
• Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic Growth and The Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–378. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443.
• Hansen, B. E., & Phillips P. C. B. (1990). Estimation and Inference ın Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study. Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 8, 225-248.
• Hoogendoorn, G., & Fitchett, J. M. (2016). Tourism and Climate Change: A Review of Threats and Adaptation Strategies for Africa, Current Issues in Tourism, 21(7), 742–759.
• Høyer, K. G. (2000). Sustainable Tourism or Sustainable Mobility? The Norwegian Case. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8:2, 147-160, DOI: 10.1080/09669580008667354.
• Isik, C., Evangelia K., & Ongan S. (2017). Analyzing the Causalities Between Economic Growth, Financial Development, International Trade, Tourism Expenditure and/on The CO2 Emissions in Greece. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12:7, 665-673, DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2016.1263251.
• Johansen, S., (1988). Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, 231-254.
• Katircioglu, S. T., Feridun, M., & Kilinc, C. (2014). Estimating Tourism-Induced Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: The Case of Cyprus, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 29, 634-640.
• Katircioglu, S. T. (2014a). International Tourism, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution: The Case of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, Vol. 36(C), pages 180-187. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.058
• Katircioglu, S.T. (August 2014b).Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore, Economic Modelling, Vol: 41, 383-391
• Kelly, J., & Williams, P. W. (2007). Modelling Tourism Destination Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Whistler, British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15:1, 67-90, DOI: 10.2167/jost609.0.i
• Khan, A., Bibi, S., Ardito, L., Lyu, J., Hayat, H., & Arif A. M. (2020). Revisiting The Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollutants in The Emerging Economies—Sustainable Tourism Policy Implications. Sustainability, 1-23.
• Koçak, E., Ulucak, R., Ulucak Z. S. (2020). The Impact of Tourism Developments on CO2 Emissions: An Advanced Panel Data Estimation. Tour Manag Perspect 33:100611.
• Lee, W. L., & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating The Influence of Tourism on Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Panel Analysis of The European Union. Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), 69-76.
• Lenzen, M., Ya Yen S., Futu F., Yuan P. T., Arne, G., & Arunima M. (2018). The Carbon Footprint of Global Tourism. Nature Climate Change 8 (6): 522–28.
• Liu, J., Feng, T., & Yang, X. (2011). The Energy Requirements and Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Tourism Industry of Western China: A Case of Chengdu City. Renewable& Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15, 2887-2894.
• Liu, Z., Ciais, P., & Deng, Z. et al. (2020). Near-Real-Time Monitoring of Global CO2 Emissions Reveals The Effects of The COVID-19 Pandemic. Nature Communications 11, 5172. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18922-7.
• Nepal, S. K. (2008). Tourism-Induced Rural Energy Consumption in The Annapurna Region of Nepal, Tourism Management, 29, 89-100.
• Nepal, R., Al Irsyad, M. I., & Nepal, S. K. (2019). Tourist Arrivals, Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emissions in A Developing Economy-Implications for Sustainable Tourism, Tourism Management, 72, 145-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.08.025.
• Pandy, W. R. (2017). Tourism Enterprises and Climate Change: Some Research Imperatives. African Journal of Hospitality Tourism and Leisure, Volume 6 (4), 1-18.
• Panwar, N. L., Kaushik, S. C., & Kothari, S. (2011). Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Environmental Protection: A Review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15: 1513-1524. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2010.11.037.
• Paramati, S. R., Alam S., & Chen C. F. (2016). The Effects of Tourism on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Economies. Journal of Travel Research, 1-13.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamics Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, Issue 446, , 621-634.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, 289-326.
• Saenz-de-Miera O., & Rosselló, J. (2014). Modeling Tourism Impacts on Air Pollution: The Case Study of PM10 in Mallorca. Tourism Management, Vol. 40, 273-281.
• Sajjad, F., Noreen, U., & Zaman, K. (2014). Climate Change and Air Pollution Jointly Creating Nightmare for Tourism Industry. Environmental Sciences and Pollution Research, 21(21), 12403-12418.
• Salahuddin, M., Ali, M. I., & Vink, N. et al. (2019). The Effects of Urbanization and Globalization on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26, 2699–2709 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3790-4.
• Say, N.P.&Yücel, M. (2006). Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Emprical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth, Energy Policy, 34, 3870-3876.
• Scott, D. (2011). Why Sustainable Tourism Must Address Climate Change. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19:1, 17-34, DOI: 10.1080/09669582.2010.539694
• Scott, D., & Lemieux, C. (2010). Weather and Climate Information for Tourism, Procedia Environmental Sciences, Vol. 1, 146–183.
• Serrano-Bernardo, F. A., Rosua-Campos, J. L., Bruzzi, L., & Toscano, E. H. (2012). Air Pollution-A Comprehensive Perspective. Edited by Budi Haryanto, DOI: 10.5772/50418.
• Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., Muzaffar, A.T., Ahmed, K., & Jabran, M. A. (2015). How Urbanization Affects CO2 Emissions in Malaysia? The Application of STIRPAT Model. MPRA Paper No. 68422.
• Shakouri, B., Khoshnevis, S., & Ghorchebigi, E. (2017). Does Tourism Development Promote CO2 Emissions? Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 28(3), 444-452.
• Sherafatian-Jahromi, R., Othman, M. S., Law, S. H., &Ismail, N. W. (2017). Tourism and CO2 Emissions Nexus Southeast Asia: New Evidence from Panel Estimation. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 19, 1407-1432.
• Solarin, S. A. (2014). Tourist Arrivals and Macroeconomic Determinants of CO2 Emissions in Malaysia. Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 25:2, 228-241.
• Statista, (2020). https://www.statista.com/statistics/449827/co2-emissions-turkey/. Accesed by 09.15.2020.
• Tang, Z., Bai, S., Shi, C., Liu, L., & Li, X. (2018). Tourism-Related CO2 Emission and Its Decoupling Effects in China: A Spatiotemporal Perspective. Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2018, 1-9.
• The World Bank, Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.CRNW.ZS
• Tiwari, A. K., Ozturk, I., & Aruna, M. (2013). Tourism, Energy Consumption and Climate Change in OECD Countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 3(3) 247-261.
• Türkiye Istatistik Kurumu (TUIK), Available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1072.
• Unger, R., Abegg, B., Mailer, M., & Stampfl, P. (2016). Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Resulting From Tourism Travel in an Alpine Setting. Mountain Research and Development, 36(4), 475–483.
• UNWTO (7 May 2020). International Tourist Numbers Could Fall 60-80% in 2020, UNWTO Reports, Available at: https://www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-international-tourist-numbers-could-fall-60-80-in-2020.
• UNWTO, UNEP, WMO (2008). Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), UNWTO, Madrid, 1-237.
• Weaver, D., (2011). Can Sustainable Tourism Survive Climate Change? Journal of Sustainable Tourism,19:1,5-15.
• World Economic Forum (WEFORUM), (07 Jun 2019). Chart of The Day: These Countries Create Most of The World’s CO2 Emissions, Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/06/chart-of-the-day-these-countries-create-most-of-the-world-s-co2-emissions/.
• World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and International Transport Forum (ITF) (December 2019). Transport-Related CO2 Emissions of the Tourism Sector – Modelling Results, UNWTO, Madrid, Spain, 1-68.
• World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2008). Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges, UNWTO, Madrid, Spain, 1-269.
• Wu, P., & Shi, P. (2011). A Rough Estimation of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Tourism Sector of China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(4), 733-745.
• Yazdi S. K., & Dariani A. G. (2019). CO2 Emissions, Urbanisation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 32:1, 510- 530. DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1556107 .
• Zaman, K., Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N.&Raza, S.A. (2016). Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries, Tourism Management, 54, 275-283.