Borsa Gelişmişliği, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Kırılgan Ekonomilerde Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 125 - 137, 30.06.2025

Merve Yıldırım , Durmus Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1711743

Öz

Bu çalışma, kırılgan ekonomilerde hisse senedi piyasası gelişimi, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Meksika ve Güney Afrika’ya ait 2000–2020 dönemi yıllık verileri panel veri teknikleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Hisse senedi piyasası gelişimi, piyasa değeri/GSYH oranı ile ölçülmüştür. Bağımsız değişkenler olarak ekonomik büyüme (GSYH büyüme oranı), finansal gelişme (bankalarca özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi krediler) ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (FDI/GSYH oranı) kullanılmıştır. Kısa ve uzun dönem ilişkileri incelemek amacıyla Panel ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgulara göre, ekonomik büyüme ve banka kredileri uzun vadede hisse senedi piyasası gelişimini pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak FDI’nın anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamıştır. Panel nedensellik analizleri, hisse senedi piyasası gelişiminden krediye ve FDI’dan sermaye piyasasına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, kırılgan ekonomilerde finansal sistemlerin güçlendirilmesinin sermaye piyasası gelişimini desteklediğini, ancak yapısal kırılganlıklar nedeniyle FDI’nın tek başına uzun vadeli fayda sağlamayabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Gelişme , Ekonomik Büyüme , Kırılgan Ekonomiler , Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım

Stock Market Development, Financial Development, and Economic Growth Relationship: An Application in Fragile Economies

Öz

This study investigates the relationship between stock market development, financial development, and economic growth in fragile economies. Annual data from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed for Türkiye, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa using panel data techniques. Stock market development is measured by the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. The independent variables are economic growth (GDP growth rate), financial development (domestic credit to the private sector), and foreign direct investment (FDI as a share of GDP). The study applies the Panel ARDL method to examine both short- and long-term relationships. The results indicate that economic growth and bank credit positively influence stock market development in the long term, while FDI has no significant effect. Panel causality tests show unidirectional causality from stock market development to credit and from FDI to stock market development. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening financial systems to enhance market development in fragile economies, while suggesting that FDI alone may not generate long-term benefits due to structural vulnerabilities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Development , Economic Growth , Fragile Economies , Foreign Direct Investment

Kaynakça

• Acaravci, S., Ozturk, I., & Acaravcı, A. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: Literature survey and empirical evidence from sub-Saharan African countries. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 12(1), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v12i1.258
• Al Yousif, Y. K. (2002). Financial development and economic growth: Another look at the evidence from developing countries. Review of Financial Economics, 11(2), 131-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1058-3300(02)00039-3
• Altunç, Ö. F. (2008). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki nedenselliğin ampirik bir analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 113-127.
• Ang, J. B. (2009). Financial development and the FDI-growth nexus: The Malaysian experience. Applied Economics, 41(13), 1595-1601. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222553
• Ang, J. B., & W. J. McKibbin. (2007). Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Development Economics, 84(1), 215-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.11.006
• Arestis, P., Demetriades, P. O., & Luintel, K. B. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: The role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33(1), 16-41. https://doi.org/10.2307/2673870
• Aslan, Ö., & Korap, H. L. (2006). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Muğla Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (17), 1-20.
• Benecivenga, V. R., Smith, B. D., & Starr, R. M. (1995). Transaction costs, technological choice, and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 67(1), 153-177. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1995.1069
• Bozoklu, Ş., & Yılancı, V. (2013). Finansal gelişme ve iktisadi büyüme arasindaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için analiz. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 28(2), 161-187.
• Çeştepe, H., & Yıldırım, E. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 12-26. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2016icafr22420
• Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387-411. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(96)00421-X
• Ekpenyong, D. B., & Acha, I. A. (2011). Banks and economic growth in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 3(4). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2761658
• Goldsmith, R. W. (1969). Financial structure and development. Yale University Press.
• Greenwood, J., & Smith, B. (1997). Financial markets in development and the development of financial markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 145-181. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00928-0
• Gregorio, J. D., & Guidotti, P. E. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)00132-I
• Güngör, B., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2008). Finansal piyasalardaki gelişmelerin iktisadi büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türkiye için bir VAR modeli. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 173-193. https://www.ajindex.com/dosyalar/makale/acarindex-1423871309.pdf
• Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
• Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2003). Foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth. Journal of Development Studies, 40(1), 142-163. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380412331293707
• Holmstrom, B., & Tirole, J. (1993). Market liquidity and performance monitoring. Journal of Political Economy, 101(4), 678-709. https://doi.org/10.1086/261893
• Hye, Q. M. A., & Islam, F. (2013). Does financial development hamper economic growth: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(3), 558-582. https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.654813
• King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1997). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406
• Kirkpatrick, C., & Green, C. (2002). Finance and development: An overview of the issues. Journal of Development Studies, 38(4), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.872
• Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2009). FDI, financial development, and economic growth: International evidence. Journal of Applied Economics, 12(2), 249-271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(09)60015-5
• Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American Economic Review, 88(3), 537-558. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1690
• Lynch, D. (1996). Measuring financial sector development: A study of selected developing countries. International Social Science Journal, 48(2), 7-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2451.00029
• Malik, S., & Amjad, M. (2013). Foreign direct investment and stock market development in Pakistan Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, 12(3), 226-242. https://doi.org/10.1108/JITLP-02-2013-0002 Morgan Stanley. (2013). EM Vulnerability Index and Fragile Five. Global Research Report.
• Ofori-Abebrese, G., Mensah, L., & Twerefou, D. K. (2017). Financial development and economic growth in Ghana: Does the measure of financial development matter? Review of Development Finance, 7(2), 96-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2017.01.005
• Özdamar, K. (2015). Paket programlar ile istatistiksel veri analizi 2 (9. Baskı). İzmir: Kaan Kitabevi.
• Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. https://doi.org/10.1086/450153
• Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 9514. University of Cambridge.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1998). Structural analysis of cointegrating VARs. Journal of Economic Surveys, 12(5), 471-505. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00065 Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
• Robinson, J. (1952). The generalization of the general theory and other essays. Macmillan.
• Saci, K., Giorgioni, G., & Holden, K. (2008). Does financial development affect growth? Applied Economics, 41(13), 1701-1707. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701335538
• Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press.
• Shan, J., & Jianhong, Q. (2006). Does financial development lead economic growth? The case of China. Annals of Economics and Finance, 1(1), 231-250.
• Sönmez, F. E., & Sağlam, Y. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: a comparative analysis between euro area and emerging -developing Europe. Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 20(38), 179-202. https://doi.org/10.31795/baunsobed.645127
• Stern, N. (1989). The economics of development: A survey. The Economic Journal, 99(397), 597-685. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233764
• Swamy, V., & Dharani, M. (2018). The dynamic relationship between financial development and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 23(3), 236-251. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1604
• Temelli, Y., & Şahin, H. (2018). APEC ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin analizi. Hitit Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(1), 305-324. https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsosbil.391397 Thangavelu, S. M., & Jiunn, A. B. (2004). Financial development and economic growth in Australia: An empirical analysis. Empirical Economics, 29(2), 247-260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-003-0163-7
• Türkoğlu, M. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye etkileri: nedensellik analizi. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 6(1), 84-93.
• Yıldırım, D., & Çelik, A. K. (2020). Stock market volatility and structural breaks: An empirical analysis of fragile five countries using GARCH and EGARCH models. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 10(3), 148-163.