Öz
Bireysel emeklilik sisteminde toplanan fonlar ekonomi içerisinde değerlendirilerek; yatırımların finansmanında uzun vadeli kaynak sağlanır ve söz konusu yatırımlar ile yeni iş ve istihdam olanakları ortaya çıkarken aynı zamanda sermaye piyasalarının daha sağlıklı işlemesine, fiyat istikrarına ve pozitif büyümeye olumlu etkisi gibi ekonomiye önemli katkıları bulunduğu kabul edilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda araştırmada Türkiye için 2009:1 - 2018:4 döneminde bireysel emeklilik sistemi ile makroekonomik değişkenlerden seçilen ekonomik büyüme, cari açık ve sermaye piyasası arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi ile ve değişkenler arasındaki sebep sonuç ilişkisi Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Bulunan sonuçlar incelendiğinde, bireysel emeklilik sistemi ile ekonomik büyüme ve sermaye piyasası arasında uzun dönemli ilişki söz konusu iken cari açıkla arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Ayrıca bireysel emeklilik sistemi ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi söz konusu olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi Ekonomik Büyüme Sermaye Piyasası Cari Açık ARDL Sınır Testi Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi
Kaynakça
- Akar, C. (2008). Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarıyla Yabancı İşlem Hacmi Arasında Nedensellik: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. s(37), 185-192.
- Ayunku, P. E., and Etale, L, M, (2015). Determinants of Stock Market Development in Nigeria: A Cointegration Approach. Advances in Research, vol.3, No.4, pp. 66-373.
- Başar, S., Eren, M. ve Bozma, G. (2016). Bireysel Emeklilik, Tasarruf Oranı ve Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkiler: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. International Conference on Eurasian Economies Bildiri Kitabı, 591- 597.
- Bolak, M. (1994). Sermaye Piyasası Menkul Kıymetler ve Portföy Analizi, Beta Yayınlar, İstanbul.
- Brückner, M. and Pappa, E. E. (2013). On the Relationship Between Domestic Savings and the Current Account in Poor Countries: Evidence and Theory. http://apps.eui.eu/Personal/Pappa/Papers/RelatDomSav_Sept2013.pdf (15.01.2019).
- Çelik, O. ve Erer, E. (2018). Bireysel Emeklilik Fonları ve Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, C.18, S.2, 289-305.
- Çeştepe, H. ve Yıldırım, E. (2016). Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, C.30, S.16, 12-26.
- Çiğdem G., (2017). Investigation of the Relationship Between Current Account Deficit and Savings in MENA Economies: An Empirical Approach. International Journal of Economics and Research, Vol.8, Issue.3, 1-6.
- Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Econometrica, Vol.49, Is.4, 1057-1072.
- Dikmen, N. (2012). Ekonometri Temel Kavramlar ve Uygulamalar. Dora Yayınları, Bursa.
- Farayibi, A. (2016). The Funded Pension Scheme and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Munich Personal RePEc Archive Paper, No. 73613, https://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/73613.
- Göktaş, P., Pekmezci, A. ve Bozkurt, K. (2019). Ekonometrik Serilerde Uzun Dönem Eşbütünleşme ve Kısa Dönem Nedensellik. Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara.
- Gujarati, D. N. (1999). Temel Ekonometri. (Çev. Ü. Şenesen & G.G. Şenesen). Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
- Impavido, G. and Musalem, A.R. (2000). Contractual Savings, Stock, and Asset Markets. Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2490. World Bank, Washington.
- Kaya, M. (2016). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorunu ve Nedenleri. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, C.6, S. 10, 51-75.
- Kaygısız, A. D., Kaya, D. G. ve Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2016). Türkiye’de Tasarruf, Yatırım, Cari Açık ve Büyüme: 1980- 2014 Dönemi Üzerine Bir Nedensellik İlişkisi Analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, C7.S.1, 273-300.
- Kaynak, M. (2011). Büyüme Teorileri Giriş, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara.
- Kutlar, A. (2012). Ekonometriye Giriş. Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, Ankara.
- Narayan, P.K. ve Smyth, R. (2006). Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests. Education Economics, Vol.14, Issue.1, 107-125.
- Özbek, N. (2006). Cumhuriyet Türkiye’sinde Sosyal Güvenlik ve Sosyal Politikalar. Emeklilik Gözetim Merkezi, İstanbul Tarih Vakfı, İstanbul.
- Paksu, M. T. (2007). Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi ve Ekonomik Etkileri. Pamukkale Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Denizli.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, Issue.3, 289-326.
- Philips, P. C. B. ve Perron P. (1988). Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, Vol.75, Issue.2, 335-346.
- Sancak, E. ve Demirci, N. (2012). Ulusal Tasarruflar ve Türkiye'de Sürdürülebilir Büyüme için Tasarrufların Önemi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, C.8S.2, 159-198.
- Serper, Ö. (1993). Uygulamalı İstatistik. Filiz Kitapevi, İstanbul.
- Şahin, S., Özdemir, Z.A. ve Önal,Y. B. (2018). Türkiye’de Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin Sermaye Piyasasının Gelişimi Üzerindeki Etkisi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, C.33, S.2, 517-541.
- Tarı, R. (2015). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları, Kocaeli.
- Toda, H. Y. and T. Yamamoto (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Auto-regressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, C.66, S.1, 225-250.
- Yılancı, V. ve Özcan, B. (2010). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, C.11, S.1, 21-33.
- Zandberg, L. ve Spierdijk, E. (2010). Funding of Pensions Funding of Pensions and Economic Growth: Are They Really Related?, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 12(02), 1-42.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | İşletme |
| Bölüm | Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2 |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 19 Aralık 2020 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 30 Ekim 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2 |
Publication Principles
1. Manuscripts submitted to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences must not have been published anywhere before and should not have been submitted for publication.
2. Articles written in either Turkish or English languages are published in the journal. The scientific and linguistic responsibility of the studies published in the journal belongs to the author(s).
3. In our journal, not only studies coming from academicians but also studies coming from researchers will be evaluated.
4. Studies that had been presented at conferences before and have not been published in full text, only had been published abstracts, can be accepted into the publication evaluation process provided that it is stated in the study.
5. Articles should be submitted to our journal electronically. To submissions of articles online through the website and follow the stage of the article in the referee evaluation process, it is necessary to be a member and log in to the Journal. The personal information entered on the journal's website will only be used for the stated purposes of the journal and will not be accessible for any other purpose or to any party.
6. The authors are informed about the refereeing process of the articles submitted to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences through the system and the evaluation reports can be easily followed by them via the system.
7. When applying, an article file without author information will be uploaded to the system.
8. The journal is based on the blind peer-review process. In the articles to be sent to the referee, the confidentiality of the information regarding the author's identity is ensured.
9. The articles submitted to the journal are sent to at least two referees after the preliminary examination in terms of form and content. Manuscripts that receive positive feedback from the referees are included in the publication process. If one positive and one negative report is received from the referees, the study is sent to a third referee by the Journal Editor.
10. It is aimed that the articles submitted to the journal will complete the referee process within two months. However, the authors of the articles for which corrections are requested must make the relevant corrections within one month and send them to the editorial board.
11. In line with the reports from the referees, it is decided to publish the article, to request revisions, additional information and abbreviations from the authors within the framework of the report, or not to publish it, and this decision is announced to the authors through the system. The authors are answerable for making all changes requested by the referees. Studies will not be published without constructing the desired changes.
12. The articles whose evaluation process is completed are queued by the journal editorial office and published in the relevant issue of the journal.
13. Manuscripts that do not comply with the journal's subject, spelling or grammar rules are returned to the authors after the preliminary review without being sent to the referees. All kinds of changes in form and content may be requested from the authors of the manuscripts received for preliminary evaluation.
14. All publication rights of the articles accepted and published in the journal in written and electronic media belong to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.
15. No royalties are paid to the authors for the works published in the journal and the author does not have any claim rights.
16. The opinions in the articles published in the journal are subject to the responsibility of the corresponding authors.
17. In line with the reports received from the referees, it is decided to publish the article, to request corrections, additional information and abbreviations from the authors within the framework of the report, or not to publish the article, and this decision is notified to the authors via the system. Authors are obliged to make all changes requested by the referees. The manuscripts are not published until the requested changes are made.
18. All publication rights of the articles accepted and published in the journal in written and electronic media belong to The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.
19. No royalties are paid to the authors for the works published in the journal and the author does not have any claim rights.
20. The opinions in the articles published in the journal are subject to the responsibility of the relevant authors.
21. Articles accepted for publication cannot be reproduced and published in any way without the written permission of The Journal of Ünye Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. However, it can be quoted provided that the source is cited.
22. If a research study has been supported by any institution or produced from the thesis, this should be indicated as a footnote on the same page by placing (*) on the last word of the title of the work.