Effects of Economic Complexity on Foreign Direct Investment: Multidimensional Panel Data Analysis

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1, 87 - 97, 28.06.2025

Mahmut Mücahit Ateş , Cem Kaan Arslan

Öz

This study investigates the impact of economic complexity on foreign direct investment (FDI). With the rise of knowledge-based economies, countries' competitive advantage is increasingly dependent not only on natural resources but also on their capacity to produce sophisticated, knowledge-intensive goods. Economic complexity reflects a country's ability to produce high value-added products requiring advanced skills and technological infrastructure. Using data from 127 countries classified by income levels for the period 2000–2019, a multidimensional panel data analysis was conducted. The findings reveal a statistically significant and positive relationship between the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and FDI. This indicates that countries with higher economic complexity attract more foreign investment. These results align with the literature emphasizing the importance of technology, innovation, and a skilled labor force in shaping FDI decisions. Furthermore, the study suggests that developing countries should adopt knowledge-based development strategies to achieve sustainable growth. Enhancing education, promoting innovation, and strengthening institutional capacity are essential for increasing economic complexity and, consequently, a country's attractiveness to foreign investors. Thus, economic complexity emerges as a critical determinant of modern investment patterns in the global economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Complexity Index , Foreign Direct Investments , Multi Dimensional Panel Data

Ekonomik Kompleksitenin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Üzerine Etkileri: Çok Boyutlu Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, ekonomik kompleksitenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Bilgi temelli ekonomilerin yükselişiyle birlikte, ülkelerin rekabet gücü artık yalnızca doğal kaynaklara değil, aynı zamanda sofistike bilgiye dayalı üretim kapasitelerine de bağlı hale gelmiştir. Ekonomik kompleksite, ülkelerin bilgi yoğunluklu ve yüksek katma değerli ürünler üretme yetkinliğini yansıtan bir göstergedir. Çalışmada, 2000-2019 döneminde gelir seviyelerine göre sınıflandırılan 127 ülkenin verileri kullanılarak çok boyutlu panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Ekonomik Kompleksite İndeksi (ECI) ile DYY arasında pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, yüksek kompleksiteye sahip ülkelerin daha fazla yabancı yatırım çektiğini göstermektedir. Bulgular, teknoloji, inovasyon ve nitelikli iş gücünün DYY kararlarında belirleyici unsurlar olduğunu vurgulayan literatür ile uyumludur. Ayrıca, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşabilmeleri için bilgi temelli politikaları benimsemeleri gerektiği sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, eğitim, inovasyon ve kurumsal kapasitenin artırılması, ekonomik kompleksitenin geliştirilmesinde kritik öneme sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Kompleksite İndeksi , Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar , Çok Boyutlu Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

• Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Improving the economic complexity index (arXiv:1707.05826). arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.05826
• Antonietti, R., & Franco, C. (2021). From FDI to economic complexity: A panel Granger causality analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 225–239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.12.005
• Balac, M. (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic complexity in developing countries: A panel-data analysis. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2700906
• Benli, M., & Atıcı, G. (2023). Türkiye’de ekonomik kompleksite ve iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 38(2), 401–410. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1302106
• Chakrabarti, A. (2003). A theory of the spatial distribution of foreign direct investment. International Review of Economics & Finance, 12(2), 149–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-0560(02)00103-4
• Doru, Ö. (2022). Türkiye’de ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi (ECI) ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi. Artuklu Kaime Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(2), 235–251. https://doi.org/10.55119/artuklu.1200656
• Durlauf, S. (1998). What should policymakers know about economic complexity? The Washington Quarterly, 21(1), 155–165. https://doi.org/10.1080/01636609809550305
• ECI (2024, September 25). Glossary. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/glossary
• ECI (2024, September 10). Rankings. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings
• Ferraz, D., Moralles, H. F., Campoli, J. S., Oliveira, F. C. R. D., & Rebelatto, D. A. D. N. (2018). Economic complexity and human development: DEA performance analysis. Brazilian Business Review, 15(6), 524–538. https://doi.org/10.15728/bbr.2018.15.6.4
• Gómez-Zaldívar, M., Llamosas-Rosas, I., & Gómez-Zaldívar, F. (2021). The relationship between economic complexity and the pattern of foreign direct investment flows among Mexican states. The Review of Regional Studies, 51(1), 64–88.
• Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The network structure of economic output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9068-6
• Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-006-9009-4
• Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., & Simoes, M. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. MIT Press.
• Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
• Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1), 63–86. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455160
• Karabıyık, C. (2021). Ekonomik kompleksite ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine bir panel veri analizi. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(63), 1133–1149.
• Khan, H., Khan, U., & Khan, M. A. (2020). Causal nexus between economic complexity and FDI: Empirical evidence from time series analysis. The Chinese Economy, 53(5), 374–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1785314
• Nguéda, R. D. N., & Kelly, A. M. (2022). The nexus between economic complexity and foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics, 14(2), 41–52.
• Osinubi, T. T., & Ajide, F. M. (2022). Foreign direct investment and economic complexity in emerging economies. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 259–270. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art10 Ovenseri-Ogbomo, F., & Obasuyi, M. (2022). Impact of economic complexity on foreign direct investment: Evidence from the Nesk economies. Ye-Numu Journal of Economic and Development Issues, 5(1), 85–107.
• Ranjbar, O., & Rassekh, F. (2022). Does economic complexity influence the efficacy of foreign direct investment? An empirical inquiry. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 31(6), 894–910. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2022.2086501
• Sadeghi, P., Hamid, S., Kambiz, H. K., & Taghi, T. (2020). Economic complexity, human capital, and FDI attraction: A cross-country analysis. International Economics, 164, 168–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.07.001
• Shahabadi, A., Bat, S., & Moradi, A. (2021). The interactive effect of risk institution and economic complexity on attracting foreign direct investment in selected Islamic countries. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 12(1), 141–171.
• Stojkoski, V., & Kocarev, L. (2017). The relationship between growth and economic complexity: Evidence from Southeastern and Central Europe. Eastern European Economics, 55(4), 295–314. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2017.1325857
• Şahin, D., & Durmuş, S. (2020). Yeni sanayileşen ülkelerde ekonomik kompleksite düzeyinin belirleyicileri. Ordu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(2), 334–351.
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2016). İleri panel veri analizi: Stata uygulamalı (3. baskı). İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
• Torun, M., & Çabaş, M. (2019). Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının sofistike ürün üretimi üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. 5. Uluslararası Ekonomi Yönetimi ve Pazar Araştırmaları Kongresi, İstanbul, 75–84.
• Wang, Z., & Wei, S. J. (2008). What accounts for the rising sophistication of China’s exports? (NBER Working Paper No. 13771). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w13771
• Zhu, S., & Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: Empirical research based on cross-country panel data. Applied Economics, 49(38), 3815–3828. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1262529