Nijerya’da Vergi Gelirlerinin Sürdürülebilirliği ve Makroekonomik İstikrar: Nicel Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi (2000–2024)

Öz

Bu nicel çalışma, 2000-2024 dönemi boyunca Nijerya'da vergi gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliğinin makroekonomik istikrar üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modellemesi (VECM) ve Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak, çalışma vergi gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliğini üç göstergeyle (vergi/GSYİH oranı, vergi esnekliği ve vergi yapısı bileşimi) işlevselleştirmekte ve makroekonomik istikrarı çıktı oynaklığı (GSYİH büyümesi), enflasyon oranı ve işsizlik oranı aracılığıyla ölçmektedir. Yıllık ikincil veriler Nijerya Merkez Bankası İstatistik Bülteni, Federal Gelir İdaresi Yıllık Raporları ve Ulusal İstatistik Bürosu'ndan elde edilmiştir. Sonuçlar şunu ortaya koymaktadır: (i) vergi/GSYİH oranı, çıktı oynaklığı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif bir etkiye sahiptir (β = −0,4231, p < 0,05); (ii) Vergi artışı enflasyon oranını önemli ölçüde düşürmektedir (β = −2,176, p < 0,05); ve (iii) petrol dışı vergi yapısı bileşimi işsizliği önemli ölçüde düşürmektedir (β = −0,6814, p < 0,05). Her üç model için hata düzeltme terimleri negatiftir ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır, bu da uzun vadeli dengeye yakınsamayı doğrulamaktadır. Tanısal testler, heteroskedastisite , seri korelasyon, normallik ve CUSUM istikrarı, model güvenilirliğini doğrulamaktadır. Çalışma, Nijerya'da makroekonomik istikrar için öncelikli müdahaleler olarak acil vergi tabanı genişletme, kurumsal reform ve mali-para politikası koordinasyonunu önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vergi Gelirlerinin Sürdürülebilirliği
• Vergi/GSYİH Oranı
• Vergi Canlılığı
• Vergi Yapısı
• Makroekonomik İstikrar

Destekleyen Kurum

hiçbiri

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışma tamamen Nijerya Merkez Bankası İstatistik Bülteni, Federal Gelir İdaresi Yıllık Raporları ve Ulusal İstatistik Bürosu da dahil olmak üzere kamuya açık kaynaklardan elde edilen ikincil verilere dayanmaktadır. İnsan katılımcılar, hayvanlar veya hassas kişisel bilgiler içeren hiçbir birincil veri toplanmamıştır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma için resmi etik onayına gerek duyulmamıştır. Yazar, araştırmanın kabul görmüş akademik dürüstlük ve araştırma etiği standartlarına uygun olarak yürütüldüğünü beyan eder. Tüm veri kaynakları, makale içinde eksiksiz olarak belirtilmiş ve uygun şekilde alıntılanmıştır.

Teşekkür

Yazarlar, bu çalışmanın başarılı bir şekilde tamamlanmasını kolaylaştıran tüm bireylerin ve kurumların desteğini ve katkılarını takdirle karşılıyor. Özellikle, yapıcı geri bildirimleriyle metnin açıklığını ve tutarlılığını artıran meslektaşlarımıza ve hakemlerimize özel teşekkürlerimizi sunuyoruz. Yazarlar ayrıca, özellikle dil kalitesini ve genel okunabilirliği iyileştirmede metnin geliştirilmesine yardımcı olan dijital araçların rolünü de kabul ediyor. Geriye kalan hatalar veya eksiklikler yazarların sorumluluğundadır.

Tax Revenue Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria: A Quantitative Time-Series Analysis (2000–2024)

Öz

This quantitative study investigates the effect of tax revenue sustainability on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria over the period 2000–2024. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration, Vector Error Correction Modelling (VECM), and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, the study operationalises tax revenue sustainability through three indicators, the tax-to-GDP ratio, tax buoyancy, and tax structure composition, and measures macroeconomic stability via output volatility (GDP growth), the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate. Annual secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the Federal Inland Revenue Service Annual Reports, and the National Bureau of Statistics. Results reveal that: (i) the tax-to-GDP ratio exerts a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility (B = −0.4231, p < 0.05); (ii) tax buoyancy significantly reduces the inflation rate (B = −2.176, p < 0.05); and (iii) non-oil tax structure composition significantly reduces unemployment (B = −0.6814, p < 0.05). The error correction terms for all three models are negative and statistically significant, confirming long-run convergence toward equilibrium. Diagnostic tests, heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, normality, and CUSUM stability, confirm model reliability. The study recommends urgent tax base broadening, institutional reform, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination as priority interventions for macroeconomic stabilisation in Nigeria.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tax revenue sustainability
• Tax-to-GDP ratio
• Tax buoyancy
• Tax structure
• Macroeconomic stability
• Output volatility
• Inflation
• Unemployment

Destekleyen Kurum

This research received no external funding.

Etik Beyan

This study is based entirely on secondary data obtained from publicly available sources, including the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the Federal Inland Revenue Service Annual Reports, and the National Bureau of Statistics. No primary data involving human participants, animals, or sensitive personal information was collected. Accordingly, formal ethical approval was not required for this study. The author declares that the research was conducted in accordance with accepted standards of academic integrity and research ethics. All data sources are fully acknowledged and properly cited within the manuscript.

Teşekkür

The author acknowledge the support and contributions of all individuals and institutions that facilitated the successful completion of this work. Special appreciation is extended to colleagues and reviewers whose constructive feedback enhanced the clarity and coherence of the manuscript. The author also recognizes the role of digital tools that supported the refinement of the text, particularly in improving language quality and overall readability. Any remaining errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the author.

Kaynakça

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