Yıl 2019, Cilt 11 , Sayı 1, Sayfalar 25 - 40 2019-01-31

Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor

Pratiwi Eka Puspita [1] , Tülin İnkaya [2] , Mehmet Akansel [3]


Sales forecasting refers to the prediction of future demand based on past data. A vast literature on sales forecasting has accumulated due to its vital role in balancing demand and supply. Among these, data mining has emerged as a powerful tool to facilitate sales forecasting. In this study, we use data mining methods for accurate and reliable sales forecasts in a forklift distributor company. Monthly sales data for 100 different types of forklifts between 1998 and 2016 are used. The proposed forecasting methodology includes three steps. First, products with similar sales patterns are determined using hierarchical clustering. Dynamic time warping is applied to calculate the similarities among product sales data. Second, features are extracted and selected for each cluster. In addition to the features adopted from the literature, four new features are proposed to characterize intermittency. Multivariate adaptive regression splines model is used for feature selection. Third, support vector regression is used to predict future sales of each product cluster. Finally, the performance of the proposed approach is evaluated according to forecasting error and complexity. The numerical analysis shows that the proposed approach gives reasonable accuracy with less complexity.

Data mining, clustering, forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), dynamic time warping (DTW), support vector regression (SVR)
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Mühendislik, Ortak Disiplinler
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yazar: Pratiwi Eka Puspita

Yazar: Tülin İnkaya

Yazar: Mehmet Akansel

Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Ocak 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { umagd473977, journal = {International Journal of Engineering Research and Development}, issn = {}, eissn = {1308-5514}, address = {Kırıkkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dekanlığı Kampüs 71450 Yahşihan/KIRIKKALE}, publisher = {Kırıkkale Üniversitesi}, year = {2019}, volume = {11}, pages = {25 - 40}, doi = {10.29137/umagd.473977}, title = {Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor}, key = {cite}, author = {Puspita, Pratiwi Eka and İnkaya, Tülin and Akansel, Mehmet} }
APA Puspita, P , İnkaya, T , Akansel, M . (2019). Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development , 11 (1) , 25-40 . DOI: 10.29137/umagd.473977
MLA Puspita, P , İnkaya, T , Akansel, M . "Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 11 (2019 ): 25-40 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/umagd/issue/39915/473977>
Chicago Puspita, P , İnkaya, T , Akansel, M . "Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 11 (2019 ): 25-40
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor AU - Pratiwi Eka Puspita , Tülin İnkaya , Mehmet Akansel Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.29137/umagd.473977 DO - 10.29137/umagd.473977 T2 - International Journal of Engineering Research and Development JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 25 EP - 40 VL - 11 IS - 1 SN - -1308-5514 M3 - doi: 10.29137/umagd.473977 UR - https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.473977 Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 Uluslararası Mühendislik Araştırma ve Geliştirme Dergisi Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor %A Pratiwi Eka Puspita , Tülin İnkaya , Mehmet Akansel %T Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor %D 2019 %J International Journal of Engineering Research and Development %P -1308-5514 %V 11 %N 1 %R doi: 10.29137/umagd.473977 %U 10.29137/umagd.473977
ISNAD Puspita, Pratiwi Eka , İnkaya, Tülin , Akansel, Mehmet . "Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor". International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 11 / 1 (Ocak 2019): 25-40 . https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.473977
AMA Puspita P , İnkaya T , Akansel M . Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor. IJERAD. 2019; 11(1): 25-40.
Vancouver Puspita P , İnkaya T , Akansel M . Clustering-based Sales Forecasting in a Forklift Distributor. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development. 2019; 11(1): 40-25.