THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

The exchange rate is a complex factor that affects the economic progress of a country. It is an important component of international trade, directly affecting export and import costs, and economic growth. In this article, we examine the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth in Türkiye from a Keynesian perspective. Using quarterly data for the period 1998-2023, we set an empirical model. By rigorously analyzing real exchange rate data, we evaluate the output response with statistical techniques such as the ARDL bound test. Our research reveals that public spending, credit to the private sector and terms of trade positively affect real gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on GDP is not statistically significant. Based on those results, an increase in public expenditures and credit support to the private sector to stimulate economic growth. Additionally, appropriate policy measures should be taken to ensure exchange rate stability and prevent fluctuations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exchange rate volatility
• Economic growth
• Turkish economy

DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Öz

Döviz kuru, bir ülkenin ekonomik ilerlemesini etkileyen karmaşık bir faktördür. Uluslararası ticaretin önemli bir bileşenidir, ihracat ve ithalat maliyetlerini ve ekonomik büyümeyi doğrudan etkiler. Bu makalede, Türkiye’de döviz kuru değişimlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi Keynesyen bir bakış açısıyla incelenmektedir. 1998-2023 dönemi için üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak ampirik bir model kurulmuştur. Reel döviz kuru verilerini titizlikle analiz ederek, ARDL sınır testi gibi istatistiksel tekniklerle çıktı tepkisini değerlendiriyoruz. Araştırmamız kamu harcamalarının, özel sektöre verilen kredilerin ve ticaret hadlerinin reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasılayı (GSYH) pozitif yönde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Öte yandan, reel döviz kurundaki değişikliklerin GSYİH üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Bu sonuçlara göre, ekonomik büyümeyi canlandırmak için kamu harcamalarının artırılması ve özel sektöre kredi desteği sağlanması gerekmektedir. Ayrıca, döviz kuru istikrarını sağlamak ve dalgalanmaları önlemek için uygun politika önlemleri alınmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Döviz kuru oynaklığı
• Ekonomik büyüme
• Türkiye ekonomisi

Kaynakça

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