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HOW READY ARE TURKISH CYPRIOTS FOR EU MEMBERSHIP?

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 231 - 265, 02.03.2026
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18755210
https://izlik.org/JA93JK54MF

Öz

Last year (2025), with the election of Tufan Erhürman as the new President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), hopes for reunification between this de facto state, recognized only by Türkiye, and the Greek Cypriot side, which is internationally known as the Republic of Cyprus, increased significantly. The main reason for this is that Dr. Tufan Erhürman, a legal scholar, openly supported federalism during his election campaign and was elected from the CTP (Republican Turkish Party), a social democratic party with a federalist stance. Considering that the Republic of Cyprus also has a President (Nikos Christodoulides) who advocates for federalism, reunification, and the continuation of reunification negotiations from where they left off in Crans-Montana in 2017, the possibility of resolving the Cyprus Problem, which has remained a frozen conflict for decades, and establishing a federal state on the island after many years, should be carefully examined in the coming months. In this context, this study examines Erhürman’s election campaign and the methodology he developed to resolve the Cyprus Problem, the initial contacts between the two leaders following Erhürman’s election, and the Turkish Cypriots’ situation regarding potential EU (European Union) membership.

Kaynakça

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  • • Anadolu Ajansı (2026), “KKTC Cumhurbaşkanı Erhürman, BM Genel Sekreteri Guterres ile görüşmesini değerlendirdi”, 13.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/kktc-cumhurbaskani-erhurman-bm-genel-sekreteri-guterres-ile-gorusmesini-degerlendirdi/3828601.
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  • • BRT (2026), “Dört maddelik metodolojiyi anlatma fırsatımız oldu”, 11.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://brtk.net/dort-maddelik-metodolojiyi-ayrintili-anlatma-firsatimiz-oldu/.
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  • • Cyprus Mail (2025), “Erhurman: Holguin to return in January, enlarged meeting possible afterwards”, 19.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/12/19/erhurman-holguin-to-return-in-january-enlarged-meeting-possible-afterwards.
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KIBRISLI TÜRKLER AB ÜYELİĞİNE NE KADAR HAZIRLAR?

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 231 - 265, 02.03.2026
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18755210
https://izlik.org/JA93JK54MF

Öz

Geçtiğimiz yıl (2025) içerisinde Tufan Erhürman’ın Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti’nin (KKTC) yeni Cumhurbaşkanı olarak seçilmesiyle, sadece Türkiye tarafından tanınan bu fiili devlet ile Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti adıyla uluslararası alanda yer edinen Güney Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi’nin yeniden birleşme umutları önemli ölçüde arttı. Bunun temel nedeni, hukukçu bir akademisyen olan Dr. Tufan Erhürman’ın seçim kampanyası sırasında federalizmi açıkça desteklemiş olması ve federalist çizgideki sosyal demokrat CTP (Cumhuriyet Türk Partisi) tarafından seçilmiş olmasıdır. Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti’nin de federalizmi, yeniden birleşmeyi ve birleşme müzakerelerinin 2017 Crans-Montana’da kaldığı yerden devam etmesini savunan bir Devlet Başkanı (Nikos Hristodulidis) olduğu düşünülürse, on yıllardır donmuş bir çatışma olarak devam eden Kıbrıs Sorunu’nun önümüzde aylarda çözümlenmesi ve adada yıllar sonra federal bir devletin kurulması ihtimali dikkatle incelenmelidir. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmada, Erhürman’ın seçim kampanyası ve Kıbrıs Sorunu’nun çözülmesi için geliştirdiği metodoloji, Erhürman’ın seçilmesi sonrasında iki lider arasında başlayan ilk temaslar ve Kıbrıslı Türklerin Avrupa Birliği’ne tam üyelik konusunda ne derece hazır oldukları araştırılacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • • Adaoğlu, Hacer Soykan (2009), “Special Territories in European Union and North Cyprus: A Sui Generis Relationship Under Community Law”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 6(23), pp. 127-148.
  • • Anadolu Ajansı (2025), “KKTC Cumhurbaşkanı Erhürman ile GKRY Lideri Hristodulidis ara bölgede görüştü”, 20.11.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/kktc-cumhurbaskani-erhurman-ile-gkry-lideri-hristodulidis-ara-bolgede-gorustu-/3749225.
  • • Anadolu Ajansı (2026), “KKTC Cumhurbaşkanı Erhürman, BM Genel Sekreteri Guterres ile görüşmesini değerlendirdi”, 13.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/kktc-cumhurbaskani-erhurman-bm-genel-sekreteri-guterres-ile-gorusmesini-degerlendirdi/3828601.
  • • Avrupa Komisyonu (2024), Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamuoyu, Ulusal Rapor: Kıbrıs Türk Toplumu, Ekim 2024, Standard Eurobarometer 102, ISBN: 978-92-68-23282-8.
  • • BBC News Türkçe (2024), “Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti, NATO'ya üye olabilir mi?”, 27.11.2024, Date of Accession: 19.02.2026 from https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c154j0k043xo.
  • • Brahm, Eric (2003), “Hurting Stalemate Stage”, Beyond Intractability, September 2003, Date of Accession: 19.02.2026 from https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/stalemate.
  • • BRT (2026), “Dört maddelik metodolojiyi anlatma fırsatımız oldu”, 11.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://brtk.net/dort-maddelik-metodolojiyi-ayrintili-anlatma-firsatimiz-oldu/.
  • • Cantekin, Aytekin (2016), “Ripeness and Readiness Theories in International Conflict Resolution”, Journal of Mediation & Applied Conflict Analysis, 3(2), pp. 75-90.
  • • Cyprus Dialogue From, “Guterres Framework”, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cydialogue.org/knowledge-resources/guterres-framework/.
  • • Cyprus Mail (2025), “Erhurman criticises Christodoulides for ‘ignoring’ Turkish Cypriots over gas pipeline plan”, 04.11.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/11/04/erhurman-criticises-christodoulides-for-ignoring-turkish-cypriots-over-gas-pipeline-plan.
  • • Cyprus Mail (2025), “Erhurman: Holguin to return in January, enlarged meeting possible afterwards”, 19.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cyprus-mail.com/2025/12/19/erhurman-holguin-to-return-in-january-enlarged-meeting-possible-afterwards.
  • • Cyprus Mail (2026), “‘Constant and direct dialogue is essential’ says Holguin after meeting”, 28.01.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/01/28/christodoulides-takes-five-point-plan-to-trilateral-talks.
  • • Cyprus Mail (2026), “Erhurman announces Cyprus problem negotiating team”, 08.01.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/01/08/erhurman-announces-cyprus-problem-negotiating-team.
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Dans quelle mesure les Chypriotes turcs sont-ils prêts à adhérer à l'UE ?

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 231 - 265, 02.03.2026
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18755210
https://izlik.org/JA93JK54MF

Öz

L'année dernière (2025), avec l'élection de Tufan Erhürman à la présidence de la République turque de Chypre du Nord (RTCN), les espoirs de réunification entre cet État de facto, reconnu uniquement par la Turquie, et la partie chypriote grecque, connue internationalement sous le nom de République de Chypre, ont considérablement augmenté. La raison principale en est que le Dr Tufan Erhürman, juriste, a ouvertement soutenu le fédéralisme pendant sa campagne électorale et a été élu sous la bannière du CTP (Parti républicain turc), un parti social-démocrate à tendance fédéraliste. Étant donné que la République de Chypre a également un président (Nikos Christodoulides) qui prône le fédéralisme, la réunification et la poursuite des négociations de réunification là où elles se sont arrêtées à Crans-Montana en 2017, la possibilité de résoudre le problème chypriote, qui reste un conflit gelé depuis des décennies, et d'établir un État fédéral sur l'île après de nombreuses années, devrait être examinée avec attention au cours des prochains mois. Dans ce contexte, cette étude examine la campagne électorale d'Erhürman et la méthodologie qu'il a développée pour résoudre le problème chypriote, les premiers contacts entre les deux dirigeants après l'élection d'Erhürman et la situation des Chypriotes turcs concernant une éventuelle adhésion à l'Union européenne (UE).

Kaynakça

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  • • Kıbrıs Gazetesi (2026), “Cumhurbaşkanı Erhürman: Çözümsüzlüğe sebep olanın ödeyeceği bir bedel olmalı”, 18.02.2026, Date of Accession: 18.02.2026 from https://kibrisgazetesi.com/cumhurbaskani-erhurman-siyasi-esitlik-olmazsa-cozum-de-olmaz/.
  • • Kıbrıs Gerçek (2026), “Cumhurbaşkanlığı’na Yunanca Sayfa Geliyor”, 02.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrisgercek.com/cumhurbaskanligina-yunanca-sayfa-geliyor.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2018), “Güney Kıbrıs verileri açıkladı: "Kıbrıs'ta yaşayan Kıbrıslı Türk sayısı 175 bin"”, 02.04.2018, Date of Accession: 19.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c58-GUNEY_KIBRIS/n247015-guney-kibris-verileri-acikladi-kibrista-yasayan-kibrisli-turk-sa.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2025), “Johannes Hahn: AB, Kıbrıs’ta yeniden birleşme halinde 2028-2034 bütçesini revize etmeye hazır”, 20.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c58-GUNEY_KIBRIS/n586206-johannes-hahn-ab-kibrista-yeniden-birlesme-halinde-20282034-butcesini-revize-etmeye-hazir.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2025), “Rum basını: Hristodulidis, Erhürman’ın 4 maddesinden 3’üne itiraz etmiyor!”, 30.11.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c58-GUNEY_KIBRIS/n583845-rum-basini-hristodulidis-erhurmanin-4-maddesinden-3une-itiraz-etmiyor.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2026), “Erhürman, Hristodulidis ile görüşmesini değerlendirdi: Verimli değil ancak yararlı bir görüşmeydi”, 28.01.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c35-KIBRIS_HABERLERI/n590135-erhurman-hristodulidis-ile-gorusmesini-degerlendirdi-verimli-degil-ancak-yararli-bir-gorusmeydi.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2026), “Erhürman’dan AB’ye 21 yıllık hesap: Kamuya açık sözünüz Direkt Ticaret Tüzüğü nerede?”, 30.01.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c35-KIBRIS_HABERLERI/n590264-erhurmandan-abye-21-yillik-hesap-kamuya-acik-sozunuz-direkt-ticaret-tuzugu-nerede.
  • • Kıbrıs Postası (2026), “Hristodulidis’ten Kıbrıslı Türklere yönelik iki tek taraflı adım geliyor”, 20.01.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.kibrispostasi.com/c58-GUNEY_KIBRIS/n589360-hristodulidisten-kibrisli-turklere-yonelik-iki-tek-tarafli-adim-geliyor.
  • • KKTC Taşınmaz Mal Komisyonu Resmi İstatistikleri (2025), “Genel İstatistikler”, 31.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://tamk.gov.ct.tr/tr-tr/%C4%B0statistikler-Grafik-%C3%87al%C4%B1%C5%9Fmas%C4%B1/Genel-%C4%B0statistikler.
  • • KKTC Yüksek Seçim Kurulu (2025), “Duyuru Detayları”, 24.10.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://ysk.gov.ct.tr/2025/10/24/resmi-gazete-ilani-2/. • Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı, “Biyografi - Cumhurbaşkanı Tufan ERHÜRMAN”, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://kktcb.org/tr/cumhurbaskani/biyografi.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan & Kısacık, Sina (2020), “Cutting the Gordian Knot: Turkish Foreign Policy Towards Cyprus During AK Party Era (2002-2020)”, Studia i Analizy Nauk Polityce, no: 1 (2020), pp. 21-64.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2025), “EU pushes for federal solution in Cyprus”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 22.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2025/12/22/eu-pushes-for-federal-solution-in-cyprus/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2025), “Kıbrıs’ta Barış Süreci Hızlanıyor”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 01.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2025/12/01/kibrista-baris-sureci-hizlaniyor/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2025), “Kıbrıs’ta Liderler Arası İlk Görüşme Gerçekleştirildi”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 21.11.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2025/11/21/kibrista-liderler-arasi-ilk-gorusme-gerceklestirildi/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2025), “Tufan Erhürman wins presidential election in TRNC”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 19.10.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2025/10/19/tufan-erhurman-wins-presidential-election-in-trnc/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2026), “Erdoğan-Miçotakis Görüşmesi: Krizsiz, Daha Sakin Bir Dönemin Sinyalleri”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 11.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2026/02/11/erdogan-micotakis-gorusmesi-krizsiz-daha-sakin-bir-donemin-sinyalleri/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2026), “Loizidou Davası ve KKTC ile Türkiye’ye Olası Etkileri”, Uluslararası Politika Akademisi, 02.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://politikaakademisi.org/2026/02/02/loizidu-davasi-ve-kktc-ile-turkiyeye-olasi-etkileri/.
  • • Örmeci, Ozan (2026), The Dynamics of Turkish Foreign Policy: Key Concepts and Strategic Approaches, Berlin: Peter Lang.
  • • Özbek, Cengiz (2025), “Kuzey Kıbrıs sandık başında: İki devlet mi, federasyon mu?”, DW Türkçe, 19.10.2025, Date of Accession: 19.02.2026 from https://www.dw.com/tr/kuzey-k%C4%B1br%C4%B1s-sand%C4%B1k-ba%C5%9F%C4%B1nda-i%CC%87ki-devlet-mi-federasyon-mu/a-74391569.
  • • Taşıran, Ali Cevat & Ünver, Ceylan (2016), “Calculation of the Human Development Index for Northern Cyprus Using Economic Measurements from the Post-Conflict Period”, Ekonomi-tek, 5(3), pp. 1-20.
  • • The Levant Files (2026), “Cyprus Negotiations at a Dead-End: UN Pushes the "Pause" Button”, 15.02.2026, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.thelevantfiles.org/2026/02/cyprus-negotiations-at-dead-end-un.html.
  • • Tufanerhurman.org, “Geleceğe İmza”, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://tufanerhurman.org/.
  • • Yeni Şafak (2025), “Kıbrıs Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçiminde kim ne kadar oy aldı, kim kazandı? 2025 KKTC oy oranlarına göre seçim sonuçları”, 20.10.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.yenisafak.com/foto-galeri/ozgun/kibris-cumhurbaskanligi-seciminde-kim-ne-kadar-oy-aldi-kim-kazandi-ersin-tatar-mi-tufan-erhurman-mi-2025-kktc-oy-oranlarina-gore-secim-sonuclari-4760191/1.
  • • Yenidüzen (2025), “‘AB, Kıbrıs’ta barış, güvenlik, refah için çalışmaya hazırdır’”, 20.12.2025, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.yeniduzen.com/ab-kibrista-baris-guvenlik-refah-icin-calismaya-hazirdir-190119h.htm.
  • • Unite Cyprus Now, “Historical Documents: Guterres Framework”, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://unitecyprusnow.org/cyprob/historical-documents/120-guterres-framework.
  • • US Department of State (2025), “2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Cyprus”, Date of Accession: 16.02.2026 from https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/cyprus/.
  • • Zartman, William (1989), Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa, Updated Edition, A Council on Foreign Relations Book, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • • Zartman, Ben William (2008), “'Olgunluk': müzakere ve çatışma çözümünde zamanlamanın önemi”, E-International Relations, 20.12.2008, Date of Accession: 19.02.2026 from https://www.e-ir.info/2008/12/20/ripeness-the-importance-of-timing-in-negotiation-and-conflict-resolution/.
Toplam 60 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Avrupa Birliği, Türk Dış Politikası, Uluslararası İlişkilerde Uyuşmazlık Çözümü
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ozan Ormeci 0000-0001-8850-6089

Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Şubat 2026
Kabul Tarihi 24 Şubat 2026
Yayımlanma Tarihi 2 Mart 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18755210
IZ https://izlik.org/JA93JK54MF
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2026 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Ormeci, Ozan. 2026. “HOW READY ARE TURKISH CYPRIOTS FOR EU MEMBERSHIP?”. UPA Strategic Affairs 7 (1): 231-65. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18755210.