İSTANBUL’UN İLÇELERİNDE OLASI DEPREM RİSKİNİN FINE-KINNEY YÖNTEMİYLE ARAŞTIRILMASI

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 139 - 151, 29.12.2023

Taner Ersöz , Gürkan Bayrak

Öz

Depremler geçmişten günümüze kadar insan hayatını olumsuz bir şekilde etkilemiştir. Gün geçtikçe artan nüfus ve inşa edilen yapıların artması deprem riskini giderek arttırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada İstanbul’da yaşanacak olası bir depremin risk analizi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ilçelerin fay hattına olan uzaklıkları, İstanbul’daki binaların yapım yılları ve yaklaşık 120 yıldır İstanbul ve çevresinde Mw>4 olan depremler veri olarak toplanmıştır. Veriler AFAD (Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı) ve İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi Deprem ve Zemin İnceleme Şube Müdürlüğü’nden alınmıştır. Risk analizi için Fine-Kinney metodu kullanılmıştır. Fine-Kinney metodu hesaplanırken olasılık, frekans ve şiddet değerlerinin çarpımı sonucunda risk sınıfı ortaya çıkmaktadır. Yapılan çalışmada Fine-Kinney metodundaki olasılık değerinin hesaplanması için ilçelerin fay hattına olan uzaklıkları, frekans değeri olarak geçmişte yaşanan 268 adet deprem ve şiddet değerinin hesaplanması için ilçelerde olan binaların yapım yılları ele alınmıştır. Yapılan risk analizi sonucunda İstanbul’daki 39 adet ilçe risk puanlarına göre çok yüksek risk, yüksek risk, önemli risk, olası risk ve kabul edilebilir risk olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre Bahçelievler, Bakırköy, Beylikdüzü, Kartal, Zeytinburnu ilçeleri çok yüksek riske sahip ilçeler olarak bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Deprem, Sismik Risk, İstanbul, İlçeler, Fine-Kinney Risk Yöntemi

INVESTIGATION OF POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE RISK IN DISTRICTS OF ISTANBUL USING THE FINE-KINNEY METHOD

Öz

Earthquakes have negatively affected countries socially, economically, and demographically throughout history. The increase in population and the construction of buildings that do not comply with legal regulations will significantly increase the impact of the consequences of the earthquake. In this research, the possible earthquake risk that may occur in Istanbul was calculated. The data collected for this study are the distances of the districts to the fault line, the construction years of the buildings in Istanbul, and the earthquakes with Mw>4 in Istanbul and its surroundings for approximately 120 years. These data were taken from AFAD and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake and Soil Investigation Branch Directorate. Fine-Kinney method (FKM), one of the risk assessment methods, was used in risk calculation. Earthquake intensity, frequency and probability values were used in analysis calculations. In the study, while calculating the probability value in the Fine-Kinney method, the distances of the districts to the fault line were considered, and the frequency value of 268 earthquakes in the past and the construction years of the buildings in the districts were calculated. density value. As a result of the risk analysis, 39 districts in Istanbul were classified as very high risk, high risk, significant risk, possible risk and acceptable risk according to their risk scores. According to the results of the research, Adalar, Bahcelievler, Bakirkoy, Beylikduzu, Kartal, Zeytinburnu districts have the highest risk.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Earthquake, Seismic Risk, Istanbul, Districts, Fine-Kinney Risk Method

Kaynakça

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