THE EU - BALKANS ENLARGEMENT PROCESS DEADLOCK: THE ROLE OF PERCEPTIONS, STABILITOCRACY, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 24, 131 - 153, 21.09.2023

Zoran Ivanov

https://doi.org/10.54842/ustich.1315682

Öz

The EU enlargement process has its dynamics throughout the years that still keep some of Balkan countries outside of its borders. Starting point for this analysis is perception matters. Hence, it aims to better understand the critical events from the history of interactions between EU and western part of Balkans that shaped the mutual perception that keep Balkan countries located in western part of the region away from the EU.

The article will analyze both sides, the EU, and the countries of western part of Balkans. First, it argues that the policy of the EU enlargement with western Balkan has deep roots in history. Hence, we will identify manifests that shaped EU’s perceptions towards that region of Balkans. It will identify building blocks for enlargement resistance. Second, will scrutinize the unwillingness of the Balkan political elites to comply with accession criteria. Further, it will examine the internal regional manifests that contribute to the EU’s perception and undermine development and prosperity. Many regional politicians have mastered to talk the EU talk without delivering any genuine results. It will identify building blocks of stabilitocracy.

At the end, it will give recommendations that are implied from the stalled process. Since EU membership is first responsibility than a privilege, priority should be given to what western Balkan countries can do for themselves. Only after they can attract the EU interests to open enlargement again.

Anahtar Kelimeler

enlargement, stabilitocracy, resistance, geopolitics, instability, culture

AB - BALKANLAR GENİŞLEME SÜRECİ ÇIKMAZI: ALGILAR, İSTİKRAR VE TAVSİYELERİN ROLÜ

Öz

AB genişleme süreci, yıllar boyunca Balkanların batı kesiminde yer alan ülkeleri hala sınırlarının dışında tutan dinamiklere sahiptir. Bu analizin başlangıç noktası algı meselesidir. Bu nedenle, Balkan bölgesinin batı kesimindeki ülkeleri AB'den uzak tutan karşılıklı algıyı şekillendiren AB ve batı Balkan etkileşimlerinin tarihindeki kritik olayları daha iyi anlamayı amaçlamaktadır.

Makale, AB ve batı Balkanlar olmak üzere her iki taraflı da analiz edecektir. İlk olarak, AB'nin Balkanların batı kesiminde bulunan ülkelerle genişleme politikasının tarihte derin kökleri olduğu savunulmaktadır. Bu nedenle, AB'nin batı Balkanlara yönelik algılarını şekillendiren tezahürler tespit edilecektir. Genişleme direncinin yapı taşları belirlenecektir. İkinci olarak, Balkan siyasi elitlerinin katılım kriterlerine uyma konusundaki isteksizliği incelenecektir. Ayrıca, AB'nin algısına katkıda bulunan ve kalkınma ve refahı baltalayan bölgesel iç tezahürleri inceleyecektir. Birçok bölgesel siyasetçi, gerçek bir sonuç ortaya koymadan AB ağzıyla konuşmakta ustalaşmıştır. İstikrarlı demokrasinin yapı taşlarını tanımlayacaktır.

Son olarak, duraksamış süreçten çıkarılabilecek tavsiyelerde bulunacaktır. AB üyeliği bir ayrıcalıktan ziyade bir sorumluluk olduğundan, öncelik batı Balkan ülkelerinin kendileri için neler yapabileceklerine verilmelidir. Ancak bundan sonra AB'nin ilgisini tekrar genişlemeye çekebilirler.

Anahtar Kelimeler

genişleme, stabilitokrasi, direniş, jeopolitik, istikrarsızlık, kültür

Kaynakça

• Bailyn, Bernard. ‘The Challenge of Modern Historiography’ 1982, The American Historical Review, 87(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/1863306
• Biber, Florian. ‘The Rise (and Fall) of Balkan Stabilitocracies’ Horizons, https://www.cirsd.org/files/000/000/005/21/5401cb7afdd44a46f24311cb2e627154c75639a8.pdf
• Economides, Spyros. ‘From fatigue to resistance: EU enlargement and Western Balkan’, 2020, Dehrendorf Froum IV Working paper No.17, https://www.dahrendorf-forum.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/From-Fatigue-to-Resistance.pdf
• Gaddis, John. ‘The Landscape of History’, 2002, Oxford, New York, 3.
• Geshkoff, Theodor I. in Misha Glenny, ‘The Balkans: Nationalism, War, and the Great Powers, 1804-2012’ 2012, Pinguin Books, 662.
• Grabbe, Heather. ‘The EU’s transformative power: Europeanization through conditionality in Central and Eastern Europe, 2006, Palgrave Macmillan, London
• Jelavich, Barbara. ‘History of the Balkans’, 1983, The Joint Committee on Eastern Europe Publication Series, No. 12, 97.
• Klaus, Vaclav. ‘Macedonia, the EU and the Tenets of the Contemporary World’, 2022, Klaus Institute, https://www.klaus.cz/clanky/5022
• L. S. Stavrianos. ‘The Balkans since 1453’,1958, Rinehart & Company Inc., New York, 406 – 410.
• Mazower, Mark. ‘The Balkans: A short history’ 2000, The Modern Library, 132.
• MFA Polish Government, ‘Western Balkan’, Polish Government, https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/western-balkans,
• Ney, Joseph. “Future of Power” 2011. Public Affairs, New York, p.12
• Pavlovic, Srgja. ‘Montenegro’s ‘stabilitocracy’: The West’s support of Đukanović is damaging the prospects of democratic change’ LSE, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/12/23/montenegros-stabilitocracy-how-the-wests-support-of-dukanovic-is-damaging-the-prospects-of-democratic-change/
• Reuters, ‘Cancellation of South Stream Pipeline Gives EU an Economic Headache’ Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/cancellation-south-stream-pipeline-gives-eu-economic-headache-288516,
• Richter, Solveig and Wunsch, Natasha. ‘How EU conditionality entrenches state capture in the Western Balkans’ London School of Economics, March 2019, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/07/how-eu-conditionality-entrenches-state-capture-in-the-western-balkans/
• Türkes, M., & Gökgöz, G. The European Union’s Strategy towards the Western Balkans: Exclusion or Integration? East European Politics and Societies, 2006, 20(4), 659–690. https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325406293289 European Commission, ‘Afghanistan: Commission announces €1 billion Afghan support package’, 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_5208
• Vankovska Biljana. “David vs. Gholiat: The Macedonian position in the so-called “Name Dispute” with Greece” 2010. Challenges of Europeanization. No:58. Issue:3. p:438-467 https://www.academia.edu/41284683/David_vs_Goliath_The_Macedonian_position_s_in_the_so_called_Name_Dispute_with_Greece
• Vankovska, Biljana. “The Role of the Ohrid Framework Agreement and the Peace Process in Macedonia” Longo editore, Ravena, in Stefano Bianchini et al (eds.), Regional Cooperation, Peace Enforcement, and the Role of the Treaties in the Balkans, Jan 1, 2007 https://www.academia.edu/1267906/The_role_of_the_Ohrid_framework_agree-ment_and_the_peace_process_in_Macedonia
• White House. ‘Memorandum of Conversation’ 1992, Washington, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1992-11-17--Mitsotakis.pdf
• White House. ‘Executive Order Blocking Property and Suspending Entry into the US of Certain Persons Contributing to the Destabilizing Situation in the Western Balkans’, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/06/08/executive-order-on-blocking-property-and-suspending-entry-into-the-united-states-of-certain-persons-contributing-to-the-destabilizing-situation-in-the-western-balkans/
• Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti et. al, ‘The EU as a promoter of democracy or ‘stabilitocracy’ in the Western Balkans?’, Clingendale Institute and Think for Europe Network, Clingendale Report, Feb 2022, https://www.clingendael.org/publication/eu-promoter-stabilitocracy-western-balkans