PETROLÜN KEŞFİNDEN SONRA ÇAD'DA DEĞİŞİM OLDU MU? ROLLING WINDOWS TESTİNDEN KANITLAR

Öz

Petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklık, son on yılda gözle görülür şekilde artmıştır. Kuşkusuz, dalgalanmanın ortaya çıkması, petrol ihraç ve ithal eden ekonomileri farklı şekilde etkilemektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlar, petrol ihracatçısı ekonomilerde ekonomik göstergeleri olumlu etkilerken, düşüşler ekonomileri olumsuz etkilemektedir. Bu bağlamda, dalgalanmadaki artışlar araştırmacıların dikkatini çekmiştir ve hem petrol ithal eden ve ihraç eden ülkelerin ekonomilerini hem de gelişmiş ve yükselen piyasa ekonomilerini araştıran geniş bir literatür bulunmuştur. Çad Cumhuriyeti'nin ekonomisi, iki farklı ekonomik döneme sahip olmasından dolayı diğer ekonomilerden farklıdır; ilk dönemde, enerjiye bağımlı bir petrol ithalatı ekonomisi iken, İkinci dönem petrol çağı olarak adlandırılmaktadır; bu, 2003 yılında ülkede petrol rezervlerinin keşfedilmesiyle başlamıştır. Çad'ın kendine özgü durumu nedeniyle, petrol gelirlerinin ekonomiye fayda sağlayıp sağlamadığını veya Çad'ın durumunun "kaynak laneti" kapsamına girip girmediğini görmek için 1963'ten 2019'a kadar petrol fiyatları ile Çad'ın ekonomik büyüme performansı arasındaki etkileşimler incelenmektedir. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, petrol rezervleri keşfedilmeden önce petrol fiyatlarının Çad ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisi negatif iken, 2003'ten sonra etki pozitif olmuştur. Petrol fiyatının etkisi 2018'de tekrar negatif hale gelmiştir. Bu sonuç "kaynak laneti"nin bir işareti olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çad Ekonomisi
• Petrol Fiyatları
• Rolling Windows Testi

DID SOMETHING CHANGE IN CHAD AFTER THE OIL ERA? EVIDENCE FROM A ROLLING-WINDOWS ANALYSIS

Öz

The volatility of oil prices has increased visibly in the last decade. Undoubtedly, the occurrence of volatility affects the economics of oil exporting and importing differently. Increases in oil prices positively affect economic indicators in oil exporting economies, while decreases have negative effects. In this regard, increases in volatility have attracted researchers’ attention, and a vast literature is found investigating both the economics of oil importing and exporting countries as well as advanced and emerging market economies. The Republic of Chad’s economy differs from other economies because of its two different economic eras; the first was an oil import economy, which is energy dependent. The second is its oil era; this started in 2003 when oil reserves were discovered in the country. Due to Chad’s unique situation, we have examined the interactions between oil prices and Chad’s economic growth performance from 1963 to 2019 to see if its oil revenues have benefitted the economy or whether Chad’s situation falls under the “resource curse.” The results show that, while oil prices had been negative before the discovery of oil reserves, positive oil prices occurred after 2003. These prices did become negative again in 2018, which might be a sign of the resource curse.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Chad Economy
• Oil Prices
• Rolling Windows Analysis

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