İKİLİ TİCARET VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMIN SOMALİ'NİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİNE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE'NİN ROLLERİ

Öz

Dünya Yatırım Raporu 2010 , DYY stoklarının 1990 ile 2009 yılları arasında ihracat ve ithalattan daha hızlı arttığını ve ara malı ihracat/ithalat artışını bile geride bıraktığını belirtmektedir. 1990'lardan bu yana, birçoğu yatırımla ilgili maddeler içeren bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarında RTA'lar 2 keskin bir büyüme olmuş ve bu DYY akışlarındaki bu keskin artışla aynı zamana denk gelmiştir. Bu nedenle, bu araştırmanın birincil amacı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ikili ticaretin Somali'nin ekonomik kalkınmasını nasıl etkilediğini belirlemektir. Türkiye'nin rolleri İkili ticaret, faiz oranları, hükümet harcamaları, döviz kurları, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve ticaret hadleri ile ilgili veriler Bank of Somali'den alınır, ancak doğrudan yabancı yatırım parametreleri Somali Planlama ve Ekonomi Bakanlığı'ndan alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 2006'nın ilk çeyreğinden 2020'nin dördüncü çeyreğine kadar olan üç aylık gözlemlerle zaman serisi analizini kullanılmıştır. Çalışma ayrıca nedensellik, eş bütünleşme açısından değerlendirdi ve başka zaman serisi testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Granger nedensellik testine göre, doğrudan yabancı yatırım olmasa da ikili ticaretin GSYİH üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi vardır. Bununla birlikte, ikili ticaret ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ülkenin ekonomik büyümesini artırmak için birlikte çalışmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarının GSYİH ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında bir ilişki olmadığını göstermiştir. İkili ticaret ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasındaki eş bütünleşme farklı sonuçlar vermiştir. Gelecekte ekonomik büyümeyi desteklemek için hükümet harcamalarını, faiz oranlarını, döviz kurlarını ve ticaret şartlarını yönetmek gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• faiz oranı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ekonomik büyüme, ikili ticaret.

HOW WAS THE EFFECT OF BILATERAL TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON SOMALIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: ROLES OF TURKEY

Öz

The World Investment Report 2010 states that FDI stocks increased more quickly than exports and imports between 1990 and 2009, surpassing even the rise of intermediate goods exports/imports. Since the 1990s, there has been a sharp growth in regional trade agreements RTAs 2, many of which have investment-related clauses, which has coincided with this sharp surge in FDI flows. Therefore, the primary goal of this research was to determine how foreign direct investment and bilateral trade affected Somalia's economic development. Turkish roles The data on bilateral trade, interest rates, government spending, exchange rates, gross domestic product, and terms of trade are taken from the Bank of Somalia, however, the parameters for foreign direct investment are obtained from the Somalian ministry of planning and economic development This study used time series analysis with semiannual information by the first half of 2007 and through regular season of 2020. The study also investigated causality, cointegration, and other time series tests. A VECM short run effect model and a VAR long run effect model were also used in the investigation. According to the Granger causality test, bilateral trade has a positive impact on GDP even though foreign direct investment does not. However, bilateral trade and foreign direct investment both work together to boost the nation's economic growth. Despite the fact that the study's results indicated there is no correlation between GDP and foreign direct investment. The cointegration between bilateral trade and foreign direct investment yielded different results. Data from the VECM suggested that there is a short-term relationship between the two variables. In particular, results showed that when FDI in Somalia is excessively high, it quickly converts to a low GDP rate. Additionally, it returns to an increase in FDI in the economy when the average GDP is in excess. Foreign direct investment, bilateral trade, and terms of trade may be disregarded when predicting future GDP rates, despite the fact that prior government spending, the currency rate, and interest rates are all very sensitive to changes in future GDP. To promote economic growth in the future, it is necessary to manage governmental spending, interest rates, exchange rates, and trade terms.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• interest rate, foreign direct investment, economic growth, bilateral trade.

Kaynakça

1. Adarov, A. 2021 . Working Paper 204 Interactions Between Global Value Chains andForeign Direct Investment: A Network Approach. July. African Journal of Economic Review, 5 2 , 34–54.https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.264565
2. Agbodji, A. E. 2008 . The Impact of Subregional Integration on Bilateral Trade: The Case of UEMOA. In AERC Research Ppaer 186 Issue December .
3. Ahmad, B. 1996 . Bilateral Trade and Per Capita Income Convergence of Selected South Asian countries and among their ‘ Major Trade Partners .’ 1986, 1–17.
4. Ahmed Hannan, S. 2016 . The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights.
5. Aluthge, C., Jibir, A., & Abdu, M. 2021 . Impact of Government Expenditure on EconomicGrowth in Nigeria, 1970-2019. Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics, Anaripour, J. T. 2011 . Study on relationship between interest rate and economic growth byeviews 2004-2010, Iran . Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 1 11 , 2346–2352. and Economics, 73 May , 133–143. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v7i4.1166
6. Anyanwu, J. C., & John, C. 2021 . Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows toMyanmar. Bulletin of Applied Economics, September, 19–28. https://doi.org/10.47260/bae/812
7. Argiro, M. 2003 . Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the European Union.
8. Ari, A., & Cergibozan, R. 2017 . Determinants Of The Trade Balance In The TurkishEconomy. KnE Social Sciences, 1 2 , 160. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v1i2.654

9. Asante, Y., & Gyasi, E. M. n.d. . eterminants of Foreign Direct Investment in i Ghana. Castro, P. G. de, Fernandes, E. A., & Campos, A. C. 2013 . The Determinants of Foreign
10. Asongu, S., Akpan, U. S., & Isihak, S. R. 2018 . Determinants of foreign direct investment in fastgrowing economies: evidence from the BRICS and MINT countries. Financial Innovation, 4 1 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0114-0
11. Awel, A. M., & Desalegn, G. 2018 . Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economicgrowth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ethiopian Journal of Economics, 27 1 , 1–28.
12. Baby, S., & Sharma, A. M. 2017 . Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows in India. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 15 2 , 139–148. https://doi.org/10.4314/afrrev.v11i4.1
13. Benjamin Badeji, O., & Olufunsho Abayomi, O. 2011 . The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 73 June 2018 , 133–143. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v7i4.1166
14. Blattman, C., Hwang, J., & Williamson, J. G. 2003 . THE TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE PERIPHERY 1870-1983 Working Paper 9940 NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE PERIPHERY 1870-1983 Christopher
15. Blattman Jason Hwang Working Paper 9940NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMI.
16. Bosworth, B. 2014 . Interest Rates and Economic Growth: Are They Related? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2443845countries. 105419.
17. Diamond, J. 1990 . Government expenditure and growth. Finance & Development, 27 4 , 34–36. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451951783.022.A011
18. Dinh, T. T., Vo, D. H., & Vo, A. T. 2019 . Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growthin the Short Run and Long Run : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries.
19. Direct Investment in Brazil and Mexico: An Empirical Analysis. Procedia Economicsand Finance, 5, 231–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671 13 00029-4wp01175.pdf. n.d. .
20. Farahane, M., & Heshmati, A. 2021 . Trade and Economic Growth: Theories and Evidencefrom the Southern African Development Community. SSRN Electronic Journal, 13679.
21. Fedderke, J. W., & Romm, A. T. 2006 . Growth impact and determinants of foreign directinvestment into South Africa, 1956-2003. Economic Modelling, 23 5 , 738–760. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2005.10.005 Galvão, A. C., & Raiher, A. P. 2019 . Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In African Countries: An Analysis Through Geographically Weighted Regression. Revista de Economia, 40 71 . https://doi.org/10.5380/re.v40i71.67909
22. Giovanni, J., & Shambaugh, J. C. 2008 . The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime. Journal of International Economics, 74 2 , 341–361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.09.002
23. Gokmen, O. 2021 . The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and EconomicGrowth : A Case of Turkey. 13 7 , 85–97. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v13n7p85
24. IMF Working Papers, 16 117 , 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484386521.001
25. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, S. A. 2012 . Effect of terms of trade and its volatility oneconomic growth in india. Energy, 38998.
26. Jiranyakul, K. 2013 . The Relation between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in Thailand. SSRN Electronic Journal, January. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2260035 Journal of Economic Integration, 18 4 , 689–707.
27. Kennedy, P. L. 2009 . Bilateral Trade and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence Between U.S. and South Korea. Journal of Rural Development / Nongchon-Gyeongje, Khaliq, A., & Noy, I. 2007 . Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Empirical evidence from sectoral data in Indonesia. Working Papers.
28. Kimaro, E. L., Keong, C. C., & Sea, L. L. 2017 . Government Expenditure, Efficiency andEconomic Growth: A Panel Analysis of Sub Saharan African Low Income Countries.
29. Korayem, K., & Mashhour, N. 2013 . Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies Vol. 15, No. 2, September 2013. 15 2 , 71–104.
30. Kubik, Z., & Husmann, C. 2019 . Determinants of foreign direct investment in the Africanfood and agriculture sector. 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists, September 23 - 26, Abuja, Nigeria, 1–23.
31. Kuhn, P., & Bernauer, T. 2006 . Effects of Bilateral Trade on International EnvironmentalProblem Solving. 2006 Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Malaysia. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 26 2 , 91–110.
32. Mandl, U., Dierx, A., & Ilzkovitz, F. 2008 . The effectiveness and efficiency of publicspending. In Economic Papers EU. https://doi.org/10.2765/22776 March, 1–34.
33. Martens, A. 2008 . Trade Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment FDI in EmergingCountries: An Empirical Survey. Department of Economics, University of Montreal, 2005, 1–19. http://www.pepnet.org/fileadmin/medias/pdf/Martens-trade-FDI-final.pdf
34. Matarr, N., & Momodou, B. 2021 . The effects of interest rate on economic growth: Furtherinsights from the Gambia. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 13 2 , 100–105. https://doi.org/10.5897/jeif2021.1127
35. Mensah, S., Kulu, E., Mensah, S., Mike, P., & Effects, S. 2021 . EFFECTS OF FOREIGNDIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA : https://doi.org/10.21511/ed.20 1 .2021.03
36. Moreira, S. B. 2009 . The determinants of foreign direct investment: what is the evidence forAfrica? Poiésis - Revista Do Programa de Pós-Graduação Em Educação, 2 3 , 83. https://doi.org/10.19177/prppge.v2e3200983-104
37. Mostafa, M. G. A. A. 2021 . The causal link between government expenditure and economicgrowth in Egypt over the period from 1952 to 2020. Systematic Reviews in Pharmacy, 12 3 , 231–243. https://doi.org/10.31838/srp.2021.3.38
38. Mushtaq, S., & Siddiqui, D. A. 2016 . Effect of interest rate on economic performance:evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies. Financial Innovation, 2 1 . https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016- 0028-7
39. Nyasha, S., & Odhiambo, N. M. 2019 . The Impact of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 19 2 , 81– 101. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0015
40. Odongo, M. 2012 . Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Uganda : Evidence from MASTER OF ARTS ECONOMICS THESIS. June 2012.
41. Papers, W. 2020 . Impact of FDI on economic growth
42. Parikh, A. 2011 . Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.575963
43. Ribaj, A., & Mexhuani, F. 2021 . The impact of savings on economic growth in a developing country the case of Kosovo . Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 10 1 , 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-020-00140-6
44. Riddervold, S., & Kristiansen, S. 2011 . The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on the
45. Sakali, C. 2013 . DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FDI IN BULGARIA: An econometric analysis using panel data. East-West Journal ofEconomics and Business, 26 1 , 73– 97. https://www.u- picardie.fr/eastwest/fichiers/art168.pdf
46. Sohail, H. M., Zatullah, M., & Li, Z. 2021 . Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on BilateralTrade: Experience From Asian Emerging Economies. SAGE Open, 11 4 .
47. Stevens, C., & Irfan, M. 2015 . the Impact of Free Trade Agreements Between Developed and Developing Countries on Economic Development in Developing Countries Rapid
48. Sukar, A., & Ahmed, S. n.d. . THE EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH : THE CASE OF SUB-. 61–74.
49. Susic, I., Stojanovic-Trivanovic, M., & Susic, M. 2017 . Foreign direct investments and theirimpact on the economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 200 1 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-
50. Taderera, Christie and Runganga, R. and M., & Simbarashe and Mishi, S. 2021 . Munich Personal RePEc Archive Inflation , interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU Trade Agreements in Global Agricultural Markets, 113, 43–80.https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2131311
51. Vollrath, T. L., & Hallahan, C. B. 2013 . Reciprocal trade agreements: Impacts on bilateral trade expansion and contraction in the world agricultural marketplace. The Influence of
52. Wilhelms, S. K. S. 1998 . Foreign Direct Investment And Its Determinants In EmergingEconomies. African Economic Policy Paper, 9.Wong, H. 2015 . The determinants of foreign direct investment in manufacturing industry of
53. Yeshineh, A. K. 2017 . Determinants of Trade Balance in Ethiopia: An ARDL CointegrationAnalysis. SSRN Electronic Journal, April 2017. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2854178