HOW WAS THE EFFECT OF BILATERAL TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON SOMALIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: ROLES OF TURKEY

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 4, 57 - 69, 30.12.2022

Sumaya Abdullahi Hersi Aşkım Nurdan Tekeoğlu

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7496527

Öz

The World Investment Report 2010 states that FDI stocks increased more quickly than exports and imports between 1990 and 2009, surpassing even the rise of intermediate goods exports/imports. Since the 1990s, there has been a sharp growth in regional trade agreements RTAs 2, many of which have investment-related clauses, which has coincided with this sharp surge in FDI flows. Therefore, the primary goal of this research was to determine how foreign direct investment and bilateral trade affected Somalia's economic development. Turkish roles The data on bilateral trade, interest rates, government spending, exchange rates, gross domestic product, and terms of trade are taken from the Bank of Somalia, however, the parameters for foreign direct investment are obtained from the Somalian ministry of planning and economic development This study used time series analysis with semiannual information by the first half of 2007 and through regular season of 2020. The study also investigated causality, cointegration, and other time series tests. A VECM short run effect model and a VAR long run effect model were also used in the investigation. According to the Granger causality test, bilateral trade has a positive impact on GDP even though foreign direct investment does not. However, bilateral trade and foreign direct investment both work together to boost the nation's economic growth. Despite the fact that the study's results indicated there is no correlation between GDP and foreign direct investment. The cointegration between bilateral trade and foreign direct investment yielded different results. Data from the VECM suggested that there is a short-term relationship between the two variables. In particular, results showed that when FDI in Somalia is excessively high, it quickly converts to a low GDP rate. Additionally, it returns to an increase in FDI in the economy when the average GDP is in excess. Foreign direct investment, bilateral trade, and terms of trade may be disregarded when predicting future GDP rates, despite the fact that prior government spending, the currency rate, and interest rates are all very sensitive to changes in future GDP. To promote economic growth in the future, it is necessary to manage governmental spending, interest rates, exchange rates, and trade terms.

Anahtar Kelimeler

interest rate, foreign direct investment, economic growth, bilateral trade.

İKİLİ TİCARET VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMIN SOMALİ'NİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİNE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE'NİN ROLLERİ

Öz

Dünya Yatırım Raporu 2010 , DYY stoklarının 1990 ile 2009 yılları arasında ihracat ve ithalattan daha hızlı arttığını ve ara malı ihracat/ithalat artışını bile geride bıraktığını belirtmektedir. 1990'lardan bu yana, birçoğu yatırımla ilgili maddeler içeren bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarında RTA'lar 2 keskin bir büyüme olmuş ve bu DYY akışlarındaki bu keskin artışla aynı zamana denk gelmiştir. Bu nedenle, bu araştırmanın birincil amacı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ikili ticaretin Somali'nin ekonomik kalkınmasını nasıl etkilediğini belirlemektir. Türkiye'nin rolleri İkili ticaret, faiz oranları, hükümet harcamaları, döviz kurları, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve ticaret hadleri ile ilgili veriler Bank of Somali'den alınır, ancak doğrudan yabancı yatırım parametreleri Somali Planlama ve Ekonomi Bakanlığı'ndan alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, 2006'nın ilk çeyreğinden 2020'nin dördüncü çeyreğine kadar olan üç aylık gözlemlerle zaman serisi analizini kullanılmıştır. Çalışma ayrıca nedensellik, eş bütünleşme açısından değerlendirdi ve başka zaman serisi testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Granger nedensellik testine göre, doğrudan yabancı yatırım olmasa da ikili ticaretin GSYİH üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi vardır. Bununla birlikte, ikili ticaret ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ülkenin ekonomik büyümesini artırmak için birlikte çalışmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarının GSYİH ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında bir ilişki olmadığını göstermiştir. İkili ticaret ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasındaki eş bütünleşme farklı sonuçlar vermiştir. Gelecekte ekonomik büyümeyi desteklemek için hükümet harcamalarını, faiz oranlarını, döviz kurlarını ve ticaret şartlarını yönetmek gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

faiz oranı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, ekonomik büyüme, ikili ticaret.

Kaynakça

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